1. AMMA phase 2 and THORPEX-Africa Jean Philippe Lafore CNRM-GAME, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France With thanks to the AMMA-International Scientific Steering Committee and to the numerous participants to AMMA WWRP-THORPEX African Regional Committee meeting 8-10 May 2012, Geneva, Switzerland

2. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 2 -10% -20% 20% 10% 0 Wet period Dry Period The largest regional deficit of rainfall observed during the last century

3. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 3 Uncertainties a bout the future

4. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 4 Climate Variability Impacts Water Agriculture Health Demographics Security

5. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 5 Outline 1.AMMA project  Some major outcomes of AMMA-1  Main objectives of AMMA-2 2.Current tasks in the THORPEX area  Forecaster’s handbook  NWP  ISV 3.Conclusion 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology (15-20 April 2012) Dry spells Flooding: Ghana 07

6. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 6 National Operational Services Regional Centers AMMA: An international program on West African monsoon variability and society-environment-climate interactions Researchers Societal needs Forecasts/EWS Observations Scientific questions Knowledge Models Aim 1 To improve our understanding of the West African Monsoon variability Main contribution of AMMA phase 1 (2002-10) THORPEX-Africa Greater emphasis in AMMA-2 Aim 3 To ensure that the AMMA research is integrated with prediction & decision making activities (Forecast/EWS) Aim 2 To provide the underpinning science to relate WAM variability to related societal issues To define & implement relevant monitoring & prediction strategies

7. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 7 Research field experiments / Database & library Observation networks; Modelling; Satellite Products tailored & validated Training/Education: PhD (160 incl 80 Africans!!) Masters, Summer Schools, Workshops Communication (external & internal) AMMA: Established an International Community Coordination : Multidisciplinary, Different communities International : ~600 people from 30 countries Africa : ~250 pers ; Research and Application (Forecast/EWS) communities AMMA coordinated with international programmes and bodies

8. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 8 Ewiem Nimdie Summer School - July 2008

9. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 9 Multidisciplinary Observations 1400 questionnaires of a socio- economic study Natural resources data Géré à l’OMP AMMA Bibliography mirrored in Africa at AGHRYMET (Niamey) Other projects: FENNEC, ALMIP2, ESCAPE,… http://database.amma-international.org http://amma.agrhymet.ne

10. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 10 Radiosoundings: A Major Achievement of AMMA The AMMA radiosonde budget was about 2.5 M€ The AMMA radiosonde budget was about 2.5 M€ Operational agencies in the region launched the great majority of these sondes. Around 50% of these were the routine operational commitment, which has continued by and large. Operational agencies in the region launched the great majority of these sondes. Around 50% of these were the routine operational commitment, which has continued by and large. A significant fraction of the data were not communicated to the GTS. A significant fraction of the data were not communicated to the GTS. Funding issue to maintain a basic operational network  Project submitted to DG/Dev of EU (via SECAO) no news

11. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 Impact on TCWV Average over the period 1 Aug-14 Sep’06 Assimilation of AMSU-B over land TCWV (EXP-CTL) More humidity in EXP TCWV diurnal cycle at TOMB Karbou et al, 2009a, b Positive impact of the assimilation of AMSU over land Large impact over Tropics in Monsoon regions especially over Africa and in region with a poor data coverage Improvement of the diurnal cycle

12. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 Assimilation of AMSU-B over land T (EXP-CTL) Vz (EXP-CTL) Karbou et al. 2009a, b AEJ increase

13. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 EUMETSAT (28-30 June 2011) WMO RAI Dissemination Expert Group 2nd Meeting Assimilation of AMSUB over land 24h Karbou et al. 2009a, b Smaller errors in EXP 48h 72h Positive impact of the assimilation of AMSU over land Large impact over all Tropics on the wind field in the upper troposphere Forecast errors versus ECMWF analyses (forecast–analysis) 200hPa Z, 1-31 Aug’06 Difference between EXP and CTR

14. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 14 AMMA, ACMAD, Météo-France, OMM, Services Météo Nationaux Africains New forecasting methods in Africa Knowledge transfer Researchers  Forecasters Outcome Example: Forecast for civil security (Aviation, Floods, etc)

15. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 15 AMMA Forecast method: WASA/F West African Synthetic Analysis/Forecast List of the 10 key features to put 1.ITD 2.Heat-Low 3.SubTrop Jet 4.Trough from midlatitude 5.TEJ 6.AEJ 7.Troughs and cyclonic centres associated to African Easterly Waves (AEW) 8.Midlevel dry intrusions 9.Monsoon layer 10.Convective activity: a.Suppressed convection b.Convection: isolated, MCS and Squall Lines 9 Provided by models Other features

16. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 16 3. AMMA Forecast method: WASA/F Dry Air Trough ITD HL TEJ AEJ Dry Air STJ ITD SL AEW MCS AEJ STJ/ TEJ C Vortex

17. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 17 WASA 19 July 2006 AT 0600Z WASF from D-1 WASF from D-2

18. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 18 AMMA Phase 2 (2010-2020) Updated International Science Plan completed December 2010 www.amma-international.org/IMG/pdf/ISP2_v2.pdf Research Themes: (i) Interactions, Society, Climate (ii) Weather, Seasonal and Climate Predictability and Prediction (iii) Monsoon System Priorities Capacity building Aims 2 and 3 will receive greater emphasis in phase 2 WWRP-THORPEX African Regional Committee meeting 8-10 May 2012, Geneva, Switzerland THORPEX-Africa

19. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 19 Forecasters’ Handbook for West Africa  The forecasters’ handbook aims to: –Document existing best-practice for the region –Import and test new ideas from other parts of the world; –Exploit new scientific results from AMMA (e.g. use of land-surface remote sensing for daily to intraseasonal forecasting.  The project has formal WMO / WWRP / THORPEX-Africa support; ACMAD is leading the management –Well structured (chapters, editotial committee…) –We hope to publish this as a commercial book (this option is preferred by the African participants) –Target timescale for completion: 2013.  Lack of funding to support this project and more especially African contribution (short stays of African forecasters to elaborate materials) –  it’s not a text book (forecasting methods, Illustrations) –Case studies for training (AOC website already provides many examples) –Some support from NERC (only meetings) WWRP-THORPEX African Regional Committee meeting 8-10 May 2012, Geneva, Switzerland

20. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 20 Evaluation of TIGGE and ECMWF forecast products over West and Central Africa  Collaboration: –LOCEAN (Janicot), ANACIM (N’Diaye), Cameroon (Kamsu)  TIGGE multi-models ensemble runs : forecasts at 15-day range –2008-2012 –Evaluation for all seasons of the main 15-day modes and MJO-mode over West and Central Africa  ECMWF ensemble simulations at 45 and 60-day ranges –Hindcast over 1989-2008; ensemble runs : forecast twice a month (every fifteen days, the first one at 45-day range, the second one at 60-day range) –Evaluation for all seasons of the main 15-day modes and MJO-mode over West and Central Africa –Courtesy F. Vitard (ECMWF) WWRP-THORPEX African Regional Committee meeting 8-10 May 2012, Geneva, Switzerland

21. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 21 Real-time monitoring and forecast of intraseasonal variability ISV  Major progresses during the last decade in documenting and understanding the African ISV  3 main timescales: 25-90 days: –link to the MJO (e.g. Matthews 2004, Janicot et al. 2009) 10-25 days: –Quasi-Biweekly Zonal Dipole (QBZD, Mounier et al. 2008) –Sahelian mode (Janicot et al. 2010), –Variability of the Saharan Heat Low and link with midlatitudes (Chauvin et al. 2010, Roehrig et al. 2011) 3-10 days: –African Easterly Waves (e.g. Kiladis et al. 2006), –Synoptic variability of precipitable water (Couvreux et al. 2010, Poan et al. 2012), –Kelvin waves (Mounier et al. 2007)  Objectives: –Confront the climatology to the real world; –Investigate the forecast skill of the monsoon ISV, based on our current knowledge  Approach: –Address these 2 points through a real-time exercice 10-25 days: Sahelian mode OLR

22. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 22 Project « ISV-monitoring »  Collaboration between France & Senegal (ANACIM, LPAO-SF): involving forecasters –Started in 2011 –Monsoon season JJAS  A real-time website, simple but easily and rapidly evolving, according to the encountered needs and ideas  Use of websites providing complementary information (broader context) –e.g. MJO: Wheeler’s website + NCEP  Regular briefing & reports (~2/week) between Toulouse and Dakar. http://isv.sedoo.fr

23. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 23  fdb HLE – 7 June “Canonical” HLE K m s -1 “Canonical” HLW HLW – 16 June K m s -1 Shading: θ 850 anomalies Black contours: raw θ 850 Vectors: wind anomalies at 850 hPa Green contours: raw sea level pressure  High similarities with canonical events: they make sense in the “real world” Overview of 2011 ISV: 10-25-day scale

24. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 24  3 HLE events: 5-9 June, 18-24 July, 1-4 Sep  4 HLW: 12-18 June, 25 June-1 July, 10-14 Aug,7-10 Sep  The season begins with a HLE event, favorable to the monsoon onset (Roehrig et al. 2011) Heat Low intraseasonal index HLE1 HLE2 HLE3 HLW1HLW2 HLW3HLW4 HLW5 HLE4 Overview of 2011 ISV: 10-25-day-scale

25. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 25 PW anomalies [12N-20N] kg m -2 Synoptic Variability of Precipitable Water (PW) Overview of 2011 ISV: 1-10-day scale  High correlation (0.57) between precipitation and PW over Senegal, especially after the monsoon onset (0.63).  High potential of the PW variable PW anomalies Rain gauge precipitation PW anomalies (kg m -2 ) Precip (mm day -1 ) June JulyAugust Sept Precipitable Water index and Rainfall: over Senegal  Same characteristics as the canonical mode: frequency, propagation  Differences between the eastern and the western Sahel structures (as in Poan et al 2012)

26. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 26 Conclusion for the « ISV-monitoring »  Conclusions: –10-25 days Monitoring of heat low variability provides some large-scale information on the monsoon system. The relationship with the onset (Roehrig et al. 2011) seems to work this year The monitoring of the QBZD and Sahelian modes is less obvious (not shown). –Synoptic scales: PW has a large potential: high predictability, strong relationship with precipitation.  Future: –New exercise in 2012: with new diagnostics and with higher involvement of Senegalese forecasters –Quantitative evaluation of: Diagnostics (e.g., filtering effects) Skills of ECMWF forecasts for different scales(PW, Heat Low…) WWRP-THORPEX African Regional Committee meeting 8-10 May 2012, Geneva, Switzerland

27. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008 27 AMMA will continue: - To mobilize, reinforce & coordinate the African & international communities working on the West African monsoon and its societal impacts. - To combine Observations, Forecasts, Capacity building, Knowledge transfer to better anticipate and mitigate the human (and natural) impacts of weather and climate variability Challenges to consolidate AMMA-Africa - To strengthen * visibility and support regionally & in each country * collaboration between research & application communities * integration of African PhDs in research & application (NHMS/EWS) centers - To maintain & improve observation network to forecast & monitor weather and climate variabilities and its impacts Final Thoughts