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Cash for carbon: hot prospect or hot air? Colin Hunt Visiting Fellow in Economics The University of Queensland NRI Diploma in Economic.

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Presentation on theme: "Cash for carbon: hot prospect or hot air? Colin Hunt Visiting Fellow in Economics The University of Queensland NRI Diploma in Economic."— Presentation transcript:

1 Cash for carbon: hot prospect or hot air? Colin Hunt Visiting Fellow in Economics The University of Queensland c.hunt3@uq.edu.au NRI Diploma in Economic Policy Analysis Policy for REDD ___________________________________________

2 Market failure Emissions of C at no cost Conservation of C no benefit

3 REDD and REDD plus REDD Reduction in deforestation and forest degradation REDD++ Low impact logging, enrichment planting, etc.

4 Global greenhouse gas sources

5 Kyoto 1997l

6 Bonn, 2005

7 Coalition of rainforest nations, 2005

8 Coalition of rainforest nations

9 Bali 2007

10 “If the US is not willing to lead then get out of the way!” Paula Dobriansky Kevin Conrad

11 Copenhagen 2009

12 Cancun 2010

13 PNG’s UNFCCC post-Copenhagen submission 1. Increase GDP per capita more than 3 times by 2030 2. Decrease GHG emissions at least 50% before 2030 2 February 2010

14 What about REDD for other land uses in PNG?

15 How much carbon in forests? Ground-truthing

16 PNG logging 175,000 ha a year 137 Tonnes C per ha 62 tonnes C per ha

17 Carbon markets 1 tonne C = 3.67 tonnes of CO 2

18 Markets and ‘mani long win’

19 Opportunity cost of REDD  Logging companies (profits)  The government (log export tax)  Landowners (royalties and development benefits)

20 1. Global (UNFCCC) market for C Demand for C because of caps buyers and sellers of C MRV C $ landowners

21 2. Voluntary market for C Voluntary demand for C offsets C $ carbon cowboys MRV? C $ landowners

22 “I am a top foreigner in Papua New Guinea, says carbon kingpin”, Carbon Cowboy

23 3. Donor $ PNG government MRV C $ landowners

24 Is a tonne of CO 2 a tonne of CO 2 ?

25 Measurement Leakage Permanence

26 Would the forest have been cleared or logged? ?

27 REDD plus in PNG Low impact logging and Logging Code of Practice REDD Plus = CO 2 LCP - CO 2 LIL A

28 REDD and PNG livelihoods

29 Donor $ PNG government MRV C $ landowners

30 Some key words REDD and REDD plus Ground-truthing MRV CO 2 and carbon markets Voluntary market Donor Leakage

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