1. F066-B08-059 © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. MITRE-CAASD’s systemwideModeler State and Near-Term Plans Pete Kuzminski 10 December 2008

2. © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. F066-B08-059 2 systemwideModeler Background Files Scenario Generation 4-D Trajectory Modeling Post Processing systemwideModeler Resources ETMS Query Flight Info GRASP Itinerary File Transits File Itinerary File Equipment Airspace Airports Fixes ARTCCs Operators Sectors Sector Schedule TRACONs Convert to.itin format ATO-P Demand File Generate Background Files GADS TSSIM Airport TRACON CorridorSector Airframe GDP MIT DB Load Input Load Output Load Value Added Tables Performance Metric Analysis Add flight info, VFR, & adjust Taxi Times Adaptation Link Flights Itinerary File (revised) Trajectories File Airframes File (revised) Visualization Annualization CRCT TM ASQP Airframes File Itinerary File (adjusted) System-wide Analysis Framework

3. © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. F066-B08-059 Analysis and Visualization Tools

4. © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. F066-B08-059 Recent Applications Benefits assessment –Data Communications Segment 1 –NextGen Implementation Plan Problem identification –Future Airport Capacity Task (FACT) –Future Airspace Capacity and Efficiency Study (FACES) 4

5. © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. F066-B08-059 Model Purpose 5 To estimate the aggregate and network effects of changes to the NAS Delay and load are primary metrics of interest By phase of flight By element, e.g., airport, sector, system Because output is as-flown trajectories, other effects could be interpreted, e.g., fuel burn Demand: volume, fleet mix Capacity: airport, TRACON, sector, fixes and airways Structure: airspace and routes Traffic management Time- vs. distance-based First-come first-served vs. other priority policies

6. © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. F066-B08-059 systemwideModeler Latest in NASPAC/DPAT/MLM lineage –Designed and first released in 2006 6 Flights Transits Trajectories Background Airports Sectors etc. Resources (including capacities) Output Flight events Resource events Simulation engine Written in SLX, a PC-based simulation language Active, disciplined CAASD development effort ~30k lines of code Scenario runs in 5-15 minutes

7. © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. F066-B08-059 Model Approach 77 Flights plans Resources plans constraints Start with initial 4D trajectories (from external trajectory model) Change plans to respect constraints Characterize “use” by flights Monitor flight plans/progress Regulate resource “condition”, e.g., occupancy Issue constraints to individual flights Flights’ only response to constraints is to delay passage of points. (Cancellations, re-routing, and altitude changes are responses being researched.) A resource only constrains a flight once it enters a planning horizon.

8. © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. F066-B08-059 Airport Tactical Separation frontier of feasible throughput hourly arrivals hourly departures Sensitive to: runway layout and use standard procedures separation rules and minima variability and buffers fleet mix aircraft performance   Arrivals Departures t-x t ready time  Arrivals Spacing enforced to maintain arrival priority rate Departures Spacing enforced to maintain feasible throughput over user-specified period... Capacities scheduled by: weather winds ceiling configuration selection rules 8

9. © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. F066-B08-059 Airport Demand Management 9 dpts arrs AAAAAAAAAAA DDDDDDDD AAR ADR Airport Demand Manager Anticipates demand Picks operating points Publishes rates Merging and Spacing Spreads delay Enforcement Mechanisms Ground/Departure Gateways or Anticipate landing/takeoff times AAR/ADR Delay pushback Arrival Gateway Delays arrival TRACON entry

10. © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. F066-B08-059 10 Sector Occupancy Limited           A B 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Capacities typically MAP value or some transformation –May change on schedule Airspace assigned to sectors may also change on schedule Sector entries are delayed Uses several “services” available to resources –Avoids cycling –Relieves resource developers of several burdens –Allows developers to focus on characterizing use and anticipating conditions

11. © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. F066-B08-059 11 Sector Workload Limited As flight approaches sector, its nature and activity in the sector is evaluated Commercial flight? GA? Military? Equipage? Previous/next sectors? Transitioning altitude? Requires spacing for arrival airport? Involved in aircraft-aircraft conflict? Modeled workload distributed over transit of flight Handoff and coordination tasks Monitoring and spacing Conflict detection and resolution Delay absorption flight workload t EntryExit    sector workload t delayed entry threshold Flight’s entry delayed until addition of modeled workload to sector’s anticipated workload acceptable 15-minute moving sum of workload is governed t EntryExit When resource informed of changes to plan, it updates workload as appropriate For example, delayed exit causes additional work change notification

12. © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. F066-B08-059 Other Resources Arrival and departure TRACON Miles-in-trail restrictions Ground Delay Programs/Ground Stops Airframes 12

13. © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. F066-B08-059 Near-Term Work Improved ground gateway More strategic traffic management for en route congestion Departure fix congestion Dynamic assignment of airframes and cancellations Arrival TRACON –Better representation of routes –Reduced acceptance in presence of load and delay –Reduced variability of final approach fix delivery Demand scenario generation –To address variability in demand and airport configurations –To improve realism in airframe utilization, routes, fleet mix/equipage Re-routing to avoid weather and congestion 13