1. 1 Climate change and food systems Hayes Conference Centre, Derby 1 October 2012

2. 2 What is the state of food systems in poor countries? Food systems are unstable, do not provide access and availability to appropriate food necessary for an active and healthy life Why? Extreme underinvestment in food production, processing, distribution: Africa net importer Land tenure insecurity = facilitating land grabs, up to 10% in Ethiopia, Sudan Land degradation: Soil nutrient depletion, erosion, desertification, deforestation (2/3rds cropland by 2025) Rain-fed agricultural systems – 60-80% of livelihoods = droughts/floods food losses Climate change an ADDITIONAL risk

3. 3 Impacts of GHG warming on weather patterns - IPCC Higher sea level temperatures, higher sea levels, higher atmospheric temperature, glacier melting Higher evaporation, more precipitation, changes in frequency, duration, intensity, distribution of rain, increased frequency, duration and intensity drought, wind pattern changes, changes in seasonal weather variability, frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events increase More luxuriant plant growth, species shift uphill/polar, changes in suitability of land for arable crops, tree, pasture, grazing, changes in growing season, shifts in agro-ecological zones: specific impacts depend on local agro-ecology and climate systems

4. 4 Impact of these changes on food systems: Africa Production: 50% decrease in crop yield, by 2080 5%-8% (60-90mh) increase in arid and semi-arid areas, shorter growing season, increased frequency of droughts, floods, cyclones, new animal and plant pests and diseases Processing/distribution: storage and transport infrastructure regularly destroyed by extreme weather events Consumption: Reduced intake of non-adapted staples (maize) = substitute with imports, or more locally adapted orphan crops, small livestock

5. 5 Specific livelihoods groups at risk Between 60% and 80% of all Africans derive most of their livelihoods from small-scale agricultural activity Small-scale rain-fed crop farmers Pastoralists: East and Horn of Africa, Sahel Fishing communities: coastal and inland Forest dwellers: Central Africa Urban and rural poorest: Net food consumers: 70% income on food

6. 6 Example of shifts in Zimbabwe More heavy rainfall events, tropical cyclones, mid-season dry spells Semi-arid areas are expanding: less moisture for farming Ecosystems are shifting: grasslands are turning into savannah/bush: less grazing for livestock Projected 50% decline in maize yields by 2020

7. Increased incidence of food crises Weather and climate change have always impacted on food systems and food security, BUT In 2000s, weather related disasters average 500/year, compared to 180/year in 1980s (Oxfam) In Africa, Southern Africa, East/Horn and Sahel food crises almost every 2/3 years since the mid-1990s Due to underlying vulnerability of food system, BUT increased frequency of droughts means no time to replace lost assets (livestock/income/infrastructure) = chronic hunger and malnutrition 7

8. 8 Adapting food systems to climate change Adaptation: Learning to manage new risks, strengthening resilience (bounce back) in the face of change Disaster Risk Reduction: Community practices and behaviours that are based on participatory vulnerability and capacity assessments, intended to protect food supplies, assets and livelihoods in face of uncertain weather events, local weather information ASKT: to cope with increasing soil salinity, decreasing moisture, and new pests and diseases, topsoil degradation, reduction in grazelands Public support: increase support for s-holder food production in public budgets (including donors, international funds), voice and capacity of food producers to engage in markets IN A CLIMATE RESILIENT WAY (infrastructure, subsidies, incentives, extension) Ecosystem protection: Enhance biodiversity, tree planting, prevent land degradation

9. 9 False solutions? ProblemFalse solutionBuilding resilient food systems Slow onset temperature/ preciptation/ Salinisation High-tech crops (single trait transgenically engineered) = inaccessible, not proven Agro-ecological practices, long-term knowledge, joint research with food producers, community based solutions through PVCA Replace dirty energy sources Biofuels: land grabs (ethanol/sugar), LCA shown not much GHG savings, food insecurity Decentralised clean energy eg jatropha intercropping in Mali, solar panels Countries place export bans on staples in food crises No trade restrictions on food trade, no regulation of food speculative trade Build up local markets, need protection from subsidised imports, regulation of food speculation, less dependence on international food price fluctuations Food production major contributor to GHG (20%) Soil carbon credits: MVR very difficult of carbon capture in soils, no income for s-holders (Kenya pilot), main negotiating trace in UNFCCC on agriculture Conservation agriculture, biological nitrate fixation(legumes, organic fertilisers, agro-forestry), IPM (push/pull) = need large-scale adaptation funding for research, development and dissemination