1. Introduction to Empirical Food & Nutrition Security Analysis

2. Food Security Introduction
Outline
Concept
Dimensions & Policy Options
State of Food Insecurity Today
Global Hunger Index
Bangladesh Scenario
Contemporary Policy Questions
Course Structure
Food Security Introduction

3. Food Security Introduction
The World Food Summit in 1996: “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.”
: Introduction
Food Security Introduction

4. Food Security: Four Dimensions
Access
Availability
Stabilization
Utilization
Food Security Introduction

5. Food Security: Policy Options
(i) Increase food availability by (a) imports, (b) increased food production by modern technology/expansion of area under cultivation, (c) depleting stocks, (d) efficient market infrastructure, (e) land redistribution;
(ii) Promote household/individual access to food by increasing entitlements (subsidies) or endowments (income transfers/asset redistribution/school feeding/nutrition programme);
(iii) Better utilization of food by education and general environment like access to safe drinking water and sanitation.
Food Security Introduction

6. State of Food Insecurity

7. Food Insecurity A major problem facing developing countries.
World: Number and percentage of undernourished persons
million (13%)
million (14%)
million (14%)
million (16%)
million (21%)
million (26%)
Source:
Food Security Introduction

8. Number of hungry people, 1969-2010
Source: FAO
Food Security Introduction

9. Number of Hungry in the world: 925 million in 2010
Food Security Introduction

10. IFPRI Index Source: IFPRI
Global Hunger Index
IFPRI Index
Source: IFPRI

11. Food Security Introduction
Global Hunger Index
Objectives:
Rank countries.
Compare international experience for policy guidance.
Draw global attention.
Food Security Introduction

12. Food Security Introduction
Global Hunger Index
Sample:
Based on 120 developing and transitional countries;
Compares 88 only.
Three indicators
Un-weighted average as an index
Food Security Introduction

13. Food Security Introduction
Indicators #
Indicator
Purpose to measure 1
% of calorie deficient / under-nourished population
Hunger 2
% children underweight U5
Malnutrition of children, the most vulnerable to hunger 3
U5 mortality rate (%)
Child deaths caused by malnutrition & disease
Food Security Introduction

14. Food Security Introduction
Hunger Index Scale
Index
Classification
Color Code
≥ 30.0
Extremely alarming
20.0 – 29.9
Alarming
10.0 – 19.9
Serious
5.0 – 9.9
Moderate hunger
≤ 4.9
Low hunger
Food Security Introduction

15. Country Classification: n= 120
Food Security Introduction

16. Food Security Introduction
Global Trends:
Hunger (Global index): decreased by less than one-fifth
1990: 18.7
2008: 15.2
Performance by indicator
% underweight children: declined by 5.9 points
Food Security Introduction

17. Food Security Introduction
Regional Profile: 2008
Status: Alarming
Sub-Saharan Africa: 23.3
South Asia: 23.0
Ten countries (highest levels of hunger); nine are in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Ten best performers since 1990: None from Sub- Saharan Africa.
Food Security Introduction

18. Food Security Introduction
Country Profiles
Best score
Mauritius, followed by Jamaica, Moldova, Cuba, and Peru
Worst score
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), followed by Eritrea, Burundi, Niger, and Sierra Leone
Most progress
Kuwait, Peru, Syrian Arab Republic, Turkey, and Mexico
Regress
DRC, North Korea, Swaziland, Guinea-Bissau, and Zimbabwe
Food Security Introduction

19. Food Security Introduction
Country Profiles
Highest proportion of population with calorie deficiency
Eritrea: 75%
DRC: 74%
Highest prevalence of underweight children
(a measure of malnutrition)
India, Yemen, and Timor-Leste: more than 40%
Highest child mortality (under 5) rate
Sierra Leone: 27%
Angola: 26%
Source: IFPRI
Food Security Introduction

20. Food Security Introduction
Poverty Profile
Food Security Introduction

21. Food Security: Introduction
Where Do The Poor Live?
Food Security Introduction
Food Security: Introduction

22. Food Security Introduction
Global Index Scale
Index
Classification
Color Code
≥ 30.0
Extremely alarming
20.0 – 29.9
Alarming
10.0 – 19.9
Serious
5.0 – 9.9
Moderate hunger
≤ 4.9
Low hunger
Food Security Introduction

23. 2008 Global Hunger Index Source; IFPRI
Food Security Introduction 23

24. Progress – Regress Source; IFPRI
Food Security Introduction

25. GHI-Winners and Losers: 1990 – 2008
Source: IFPRI
Food Security Introduction

26. GHI-Winners and Losers: 1990 – 2011
Source: IFPRI
Food Security Introduction

27. GHI: Progress in South, East and Southeast Asia
Food Security Introduction

28. Food Security Introduction
Bangladesh: Food Security Scenario
Nearly self-sufficient in rice; Food security an elusive goal:
About 43% of children under-five stunted;
Cause: Malnourishment due to poor feeding habits & lack of access to nutritious foods.
Lack of diversity in diet: 75% of calories from rice.
Decline in agricultural growth rate : 4.7% in the late 1990’s to 2.8% by 2008.
Agriculture: Employs 80% population generates 22% of GDP
Bangladesh’s arable area: 37% ; natural disasters can affect 30% of this land.
Food Security Introduction

29. Food Security Introduction
Bangladesh: Policy Priorities Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010
1. Agricultural Growth and Productivity of Crops, and Adaptation to Climate Change 2. Development of Fisheries and Livestock Sectors 3. Agricultural Marketing, Price Stabilization, Value Chain, and Global/Regional Trade 4. Income Growth, Social Safety Nets, and Public Food Distribution 5. Food Utilization and Nutrition Security 6. Cross-Cutting Issues: Governance and Gender
Food Security Introduction

30. Contemporary Policy Questions
1. What is the state of food insecurity today? 2. If the entire subsidy regime were to be reformed as part of the economic reform programme, what would be the macroeconomic and distributional consequences? 3. What are the different policy roles that a food subsidy prorgramme can play? What is the international evidence? 4. How far an income transfer programme like food stamps is feasible in developing countries like Bangladesh and India? What is the international experience? 5. How far did Bangladesh succeed in dealing with the 1979 famine? How useful is the information base for policy formulation and implementation? 6. What are the effective alternatives to the ‘Food for Work Programme in Bangladesh’? 7. What is the impact of commodity price volatility on nutritional intake of poor households in Bangladesh?
Food Security Introduction

31. Food Security Introduction
Course Structure
Addresses issues related to food & nutrition security within a quantitative framework.
It raises issues within a quantitative framework;
Describes appropriate statistical tools for analysis;
Illustrates its application with reference to published studies / exercises based on sample data sets; and
Interprets results and examines policy implications.
Food Security Introduction

32. Thank You

33. Supplementary Information

34. Food Security Introduction

35. Food Security Introduction

36. Food Security Introduction

37. Food Security Introduction

38. Food Security Introduction

39. Food Security Introduction

40. Food Security Introduction

41. Bangladesh: A Food Security Profile
Food Security Introduction

42. Bangladesh: Economic Indicators
Total Population (millions) (WB)
Population growth rate (WB)
1 %
GNI per capita, $ PPP (WB)
1550
Population below 1$ PPP per day (MDGI)
49 %
Rural population (WB)
72 %
Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) (WB) 18
Food Security Introduction

43. Bangladesh: Health Indicators
Pop. with sustainable access to improved sanitation (WHO)
53%
Life expectancy at birth (years) both genders (WHO) 65
65%
Pop. with access to improved drinking water sources (WHO)
80%
Prevalence of HIV among adults aged >= 15 years (WHO) 0.05%
0.05%
Food Security Introduction

44. Food Security Introduction
Bangladesh: Pursuit of FNS Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010
Food Availability
1. Integrated research and extension to develop sustainable responses to climate change .
2. Improved water management and infrastructure for irrigation purposes.
3. Increased supply and sustainable use of agricultural inputs.
4. Development of the fisheries sector.
5. Development of the livestock sector.
6. Improved access to markets, improved agricultural value added, increased nonfarm incomes.
Food Security Introduction

45. Food Security Introduction
Bangladesh: Pursuit of FNS Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010
Food Access
7. Enhanced capacity strengthening to formulate and implement food policies and related investments.
8. Enhanced public food-management systems.
9. Development of an integrated, multiyear safety net program.
Food Security Introduction

46. Food Security Introduction
Bangladesh: Pursuit of FNS Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010
Food Utilization
10. Implementation of community-based nutrition activities through livelihood approaches.
11. Updated food consumption and food composition data and behavioral change communication on dietary diversification.
12. Improved food safety and quality.
Food Security Introduction