1. Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy Are we being Fair? Sunday 7 th May 2006 Keith Tovey ( ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation: School of Environmental Sciences Lay Chairman, Norwich East Deanery CRed

2. In UK each person is consuming energy at a rate of 5kW In USA it is 10 kW 1/20th or Worlds Population consumes 25% of all energy In Europe it is 5.7 kW Globally it is around 2kW ENERGY Consumption > Carbon Dioxide > Global Warming Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy

3. This series will look at the Environment, Climate Change and Global Warming. –Is it natural –It is man made –What can be done about it? Todays talk will review Climate Change and then examine the history of energy use. Next Week we will go on to consider the hard choices facing us Then: what can we do about it? what should we as Christians do about it? Keith Tovey ( ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation: School of Environmental Sciences Lay Chairman, Norwich East Deanery CRed Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy

4. 0 1000 1500 2000 2500 500 Year Energy Consumption Nuclear Fusion ?? Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy We are currently using our resources unsustainably and unfairly

5. Future Global Warming Rates

6. Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation Source: Tim Osborne, CRU Change in precipitation 1961-2001 Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy

7. 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office actual predicted Is Global Warming man made? Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 Prediction: Natural only good match until 1960 Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity

8. Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region –Nasa satellite imagery Source: Nasa www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years 2003 1979 CRed Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy

9. In 1974 Bramber Parish Council decided to go without street lighting for three days as a saving. ( this was during a critical power period during a Miners Strike). Afterwards, the parish treasurer was pleased to announce that, as a result electricity to the value of £11.59 had been saved. He added, however, that there was a bill of £18.48 for switching the electricity off and another of £12.00 for switching it on again. It had cost the council £18.89 to spend three days in darkness. An example of where saving resources and money are not the same Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy

10. From the Independent 29th January 1996 similar warning have been issued in technical press for this winter What is wrong with this title? Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy

11. No shortage of energy on the planet Potential shortage of energy in the form to which we have become accustomed. Fossil fuels FUEL CRISIS. THE ENERGY CRISIS - The Non-Existent Crisis Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy

12. ~ 15% of energy derived from food used to collect more food to sustain life. + energy used for making clothing, tools, shelter Early forms of non-human power:- 1) fire 2) animal power HISTORICAL USE OF ENERGY up to 1800 OTHER ENERGY FORMS HARNESSED 1) Turnstile type windmills of Persians 2) Various water wheels (7000+ in UK by 1085) 3) Steam engines (?? 2nd century AD by Hero) 4) Tidal Mills (e.g. Woodbridge, Suffolk 12th Century)

13. Early Wind Power Devices C 700 AD in Persia used for grinding corn pumping water evidence suggests that dry valleys were Dammed to harvest wind

14. LONDON - late 13th /early 14th Century Shortage of timber for fires in London Area Import of coal from Newcastle by sea for poor Major environmental problems -high sulphur content of coal Crisis resolved - The Black Death. 1.4 The First Fuel Crisis

15. UK - Late 15th/early 16th century Shortage of timber - prior claim for use in ship-building Use of coal became widespread -even eventually for rich Chimneys appeared to combat problems of smoke Environmental lobbies against use Interruption of supplies - miner's strike Major problems in metal industries led to many patents to produce coke from coal (9 in 1633 alone) 1.5 The Second Fuel Crisis:-

16. Problems in Draining Coal Mines and Transport of coal > threatened a third Fuel Crisis in Middle/late 18th Century Overcome by Technology and the invention of the steam engine by Newcommen. a means of providing substantial quantities of mechanical power which was not site specific (as was water power etc.). NEWCOMMEN's Pumping Engine was only 0.25% efficient Problems in Draining Coal Mines: WATT improved the efficiency to 1.0%

17. Initially: Boiler valve closed Injector valve closed Open boiler valve Steam push piston up and pumping rod down At top of stroke Close boiler valve Open injector valve Water sprays in and condenses steam creating a vacuum This sucks piston down and pulls pumping rod up with water. Problem: Cylinder is continually cooled and warmed The Newcomen Engine

18. 9. Elementary Thermodynamics - Watt Engine. Watt Engine 1) Cylinder is always warm 2) cold water is injected into condenser 3) vacuum is maintained in condenser so suck out exhaust steam. 4) steam pushes piston down pulling up pumping rod. Higher pressure steam used in pumping part of cycle.

19. NUCLEAR CHEMICAL - fuels:- gas, coal, oil etc. MECHANICAL - potential and kinetic ELECTRICAL HEAT - high temperature for processes - low temperature for space heating All forms of Energy may be measured in terms of Joules (J), BUT SOME FORMS OF ENERGY ARE MORE EQUAL THAN OTHERS 1.8 Forms of Energy

20. Energy does not usually come in the form needed: convert it into a more useful form. All conversion of energy involve some inefficiency:- Physical Constraints (Laws of Thermodynamics) can be very restrictive MASSIVE ENERGY WASTE. This is nothing to do with our technical incompetence. The losses here are frequently in excess of 40% ENERGY CONVERSION

21. Technical Limitations (e.g. friction, aero-dynamic drag in turbines etc.) can be improved, but losses here are usually less than 20%, and in many cases around 5%. Some forms of energy have low physical constraints converted into another form with high efficiency (>90%). e.g. mechanical electrical mechanical/electrical/chemical -----------> heat Other forms can only be converted at low efficiency e.g. heat ------------> mechanical power - the car! or in a power station ENERGY CONVERSION

22. USE MOST APPROPRIATE FORM OF ENERGY FOR NEED IN HAND. e.g. AVOID using ELECTRICITY for LOW TEMPERATURE SPACE heating Hot Water Heating Cooking (unless it is in a MicroWave). ENERGY CONVERSION

23. HEATING - space and hot water demand ( 80%+ of domestic use excluding transport) LIGHTING COOKING ENTERTAINMENT REFRIGERATION TRANSPORT INDUSTRY - process heating/ drying/ mechanical power IT IS INAPPROPRIATE TO USE ELECTRICITY FOR SPACE HEATING WHAT DO WE NEED ENERGY FOR?

24. HIGH GRADE: - Chemical, Electrical, Mechanical MEDIUM GRADE: - High Temperature Heat LOW GRADE: - Low Temperature Heat All forms of Energy will eventually degenerate to Low Grade Heat May be physically (and technically) of little practical use - i.e. we cannot REUSE energy which has been degraded - except via a Heat Pump. GRADES OF ENERGY

25. So where does it all go? Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy Per Capita Consumption in Watts ~ 5 kW Transport Energy use has risen 10.5% in last decade Domestic use has risen by over 10%

26. Consumption is ~ 5 kW per capita Industrial consumption has declined Transport consumption has increased UK Energy Consumption Domestic consumption has remained static. Despite significant improvements to insulation Increased Population: decreased household size: more convenience appliances: digital television

27. 7. UK Energy Consumption 1990 - 2002 Despite much improved insulation standards Domestic Energy use has remained static

28. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES CURRENT AND PROJECTED USAGE Projected Saturation Population in 2050 -- 10000 M consumption averages current UK value Requirement in 2050 = 50 TW i.e. 5 x 10 13 W. consumption reaches current USA value Requirement in 2050 = 100 TW i.e. 10 times current demand Range of forecasts 20 - 100 TW with a likely value in range 30 - 50 TW (say 40 TW). CountryEnergy Requirement PopulationPer Capita World12.0 TW6000 M2.0 kW USA 3.0 TW 300 M10.0 kW Europe 2.0 TW 350 M5.7 kW UK 0.3 TW 60 M5.0 kW

29. What impact are you having? We need to establish benchmarks –Take meter readings when you get home –Take them before you come next week –Keep a record of your petrol/diesel consumption Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy Next Week –The Hard Choices facing us

30. Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy Two questions to discuss Who should be responsible for combating Global Warming? The Government ? We, as individuals ? Some one else – if so who? How can we even stabilise our consumption? The Egalitarian Principle? Should we all have a fair and equal share of the worlds resources? > richer countries use less > poorer countries allowed to consume more Eventually all consume the same? Should those who already have high consumption be allowed to continue at the expense of those less fortunate?

32. The Newcomen Engine Newcomen Engine pushes piston up 3) At end of stroke, close steam value open injection valve (and pumping rod down) 4) Water sprays in condenses steam in cylinder creating a vacuum and sucks piston down - and pumping rod up 2) Open steam valve 1) Boil Water > Steam Problem: Cylinder continually is cooled and heated.