Presentation on theme: "Lecture 141 Macroeconomic Analysis 2003 Fiscal Policy 1: Tax and Spending Multipliers Refer: Public Finance excel file from the hm-treasury.co.uk."— Presentation transcript:
Lecture 141 Macroeconomic Analysis 2003 Fiscal Policy 1: Tax and Spending Multipliers Refer: Public Finance excel file from the hm-treasury.co.uk
Lecture 142 Objectives and Instruments of the Fiscal Policy Objectives –Stabilisation –Redistribution –Growth –Public services Pure public goods Semi-public goods Instruments –Tax: How high should it be? –Spending: how should it be allocated –Debt: how can it be stabilised
Lecture 143 Fiscal Policy with the IS-LM Model: Keynesian Model Y1Y1 Y2Y2 i1i1 i2i2 IS1 IS2 LM o Keynes assumes that Investment is not that sensitive to the interest rate. LM is flat because high liquidity preference.
Lecture 144 AD1 Yr YN Pr Pf ADf AS: Fine tuning LAS Fiscal Policy to Bring Economy from Recession to Recovery Fiscal Instruments Tax cuts More spending Higher public borrowing o Under employment to Full Employment A B c Overheating LM: IS: PhPh
7 How much should be the tax rate be to maximise the government revenue ? t1 t2 R-max R1 R-max Higher tax causes Tax avoidance Tax evasion Smuggling Optimal tax Rate
Lecture 148 A Simple Laffer Curve Model:A Numerical Example
Lecture 149 LS0 LS1 L0 L1 w w(1+t) 0 Higher Labour Income Tax Reduces Labour Supply
Lecture 1410 r r(1+tr) K1 K0 Higher Tax rate on Capital Income (interest) Reduces Capital Accumulation 0 Higher tax rate discourages private Investment
Lecture 1411 How much should a government tax and spend and how should tax revenue and government expenditure behave over the cycle? G T=T(Y) T-G=0 T-G<0 T-G>0 Surplus Y T Benefit Cost Tax, Spending Costs Benefits
Lecture 1414 £million 1996-971997-981998-991999-002000-01 England193280196336202288213044226446 Scotland2468025029258302697028428 Wales1367813838144101487715622 Northern Ireland9081926196271003310906 Total identifiable expenditure240719244464252155264924281402 Non-identifiable expenditure3498634144382023820340436 Total expenditure on services275705278608290357303127321838 £ per head England39373984408742824529 Scotland48134886504552685558 Wales46834728491350655302 Northern Ireland54415512570159306424 Total identifiable expenditure40934142425744524709 Non-identifiable expenditure595579645642677 Total expenditure on services46884721490250945386 Source: Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses 2002-2003, table 8.1 How much are People Getting from the Government on Average?
Lecture 1415 EducationCulture, Health andSocialCentralTotal media and person al securi tyAdmin sport service s North East74610911962126615148 North West7477611901960464888 Yorkshire and Humberside74214511391764394669 East Midlands7007210241648444280 West Midlands7449310771755414491 South West6748410811658424312 Eastern6967610141518474142 London76710213841636655067 South East6687210311450444000 Total of all England7199011321692474529 Source: Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses 2002-2003, table 8.12b Predominance of Social Security and Health Expenses in Public Spending
Lecture 1418 Balance budget multiplier: Spirit for Public Speding
Lecture 1419 Automatic Stabiliser: Cyclical Fine Tuning of the Economy
Lecture 1420 Comparison Between the Lump-Sum Transfer and Automatic Stabiliser The economy now responds less to changes in autonomous spending, Some increase in income is taxed away. Multiplier in automatic Stabiliser case is less than in the lump-sum tax case. Output varies less than in the Lump-sum tax case. Therefore the fiscal policy is called an automatic stabiliser.
Lecture 1423 Sustainable Debt: Condition on growth rate of Output and Interest rates
Lecture 1424 Inflation Tax: Seigniorage Inflation rate Revenue From the Inflation tax * R*
Lecture 1425 Exercises How high should be the tax revenue? Balance budget multiplier Automatic stabiliser Sustainable debt Major sources of tax revenue Major headings for public spending Impact of taxes on labour supply, capital accumulation and growth