Presentation on theme: "1 Economic Modelling Lecture 10 Fiscal Policy to Fine-Tune the Economy."— Presentation transcript:
1 Economic Modelling Lecture 10 Fiscal Policy to Fine-Tune the Economy
2 Objectives of Fiscal Policy Macroeconomic stabilisation Higher growth rate of output Full employment Stable prices: low rate of inflation stable interest rate and exchange rates Equity: horizontal and vertical Efficiency in resource allocation Provision of public goods Externality Market failure Public private partnership
3 Instruments of Fiscal Policy Taxes Direct (income, wealth) Indirect (VAT, Excise, Tariff and duties) Subsidies (consumption and production) Spending Pure Public goods ( defence, law and order, roads) Semi-public goods (education, health, sanitation) Debt Borrowing from the private sector -Crowding Out From the central banks -inflationary tax
4 Who Bears the Burden of Taxes and How does tax-spending affect the economy? Stabilisation role Economic certainty, growth dividend Producers Labour supply (work hours, leaves, retirement) Production: taxed sectors vs. subsidised sector Trade: domestic vs. foreign goods Excise duties Consumers Current vs. future consumption Composition of consumption (VAT and market prices, Sin goods) Traders and investors Choice of trading partners Location investment
5 Golden Rule of Fiscal Policy in the UK Over Economic Cycles Government will borrow only to invest and not to fund current spending. Ratio of public debt to GDP will be held at stable and prudent levels.
6 Macroeconomic Stabilisation Role of Tax and Spending Tax and Spending GG T T = tY Income YFYF G = T T > G Surplus in boom T < G Deficit in recession 0
7 Balanced Budget Multiplier with Lump-Sum Taxes. =1/(1-c 1 ) - c 1 /(1- c 1 ) = 1 The real national income is given by the IS Curve: Positive Government expenditure multiplier: Negative tax multiplier: The balanced budget multiplier: A change of 100 in both G and T also raised income by 100. Balanced change in G and T is not macro economically neutral.
8 Automatic Stabiliser with Proportional Taxes Consumption: Disposable income: Tax Revenue Income (IS curve):Y = c 0 + c 1 Y D + I + G The multiplier = 1/(1-c1+c1t1) <1/(1- c1), so the economy responds less to changes in autonomous spending when t1 is positive. High T when Y is high. Low T when Y is low.
9 How much should be the tax rate to maximise the government revenue ? Revenue R-max t-Rmaxt-Low tH Tax rate R-low Tax avoidance Tax evasion Revenue=F(t) Tax compliance
10 Laffer Curve Model:A Numerical Example
11 Tax Brackets and Effective Rates of Taxes for three Individuals
12 Structure of Public Revenue in the UK (www.HM- Treasury.gov.UK/Economic Data and Tools)
13 Why Does the Tax Ratio Go Up and Down?
14 How High Should be Public Spending? Costs of public spending Benefits of spending G* C = B 0 Cost and Benefit Of spending Size of spending
15 (www.HM-Treasury.gov.UK/Economic Data and Tools)
16 (www.HM-Treasury.gov.UK/Economic Data and Tools)
17 (www.HM-Treasury.gov.UK/Economic Data and Tools)
18 References Blanchard (5, 7, 26) Aghevli B B (1977), Inflationary Finance and Growth, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 85, no.6 pp Barro, R. J. (19740, "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy pp Bhattarai (2003) Macroeconomic Impacts of Taxes: A General Equilibrium Analysis, University of Hull. Bhattarai K. (2001) A Prototype Multi-Sectoral Multi-household General equilibrium Tax Model, Hull Advances in Policy Economics Working paper no. 9 forthcoming in Problems and Perspective Management, Spring Bhattarai K. and J. Whalley (1999) Role of labour demand elasticities in tax incidence analysis with hetorogeneous labour Empirical Economics, 24:4, pp Bhattarai and J Whalley (2000) General Equilibrium Modelling of UK Tax Policy in S. Holly and M Weale (Eds.) Econometric Modelling: Techniques and Applications, pp.69-93, the Cambridge University Press, Clark Tom, M Elsby and S Love (2001) Twenty Five Years of Falling Investment? Trends in Capital Spending on Public Services, Institute of Fiscal Studies. Dilnot A, C.Emmerson and H.Simpson (2002) The IFS Green Budget: January, Institute of Fiscal Studies, Commentary 87, 7 Ridgemount Street, London WC1E 7AE. Emmerson C. and C Frayne (2002) Challenges for the July Spending Review, HM Treasury (2002) Reforming Britains Economic and Financial Policy, Palgrave. Institute for Fiscal Studies (2002), The IFS Green Budget, Janaury. Shoven, J.B. and J. Whalley (1984) Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey, Journal of Economic Literature 22,