1. The future of the teaching profession Reflections during a Masters programme Marco Snoek, Hogeschool van Amsterdam M.Snoek@hva.nl

2. Future scenarios in Education The future has already started … … we just dont know yet how it will look like Schools and teacher education are lagging behind

3. Future scenarios are … No predictions Descriptions of possible futures Educated guesses Scenarios are stories. They are works of art, rather than scientific analyses. The reliability (of the content) is less important than the types of conversations, learning and decisions they sparkScenarios are stories. They are works of art, rather than scientific analyses. The reliability (of the content) is less important than the types of conversations, learning and decisions they spark

4. Predictions vs scenarios PredictionsScenarios Intend to increase certainty Intend to show uncertainty Hide risksClarify risks Single lineair projections Alternative possible images of the future Strengthen inertiaStimulate flexibility and sensitivity

5. Scenarios as a strategic tool Anticipating possible changes in society, economics, politics, technology, demography, … Safe strategies: windtunnel testing: preparing for every possible scenario Define your own future Chosing your most desirable scenario Influencing the future

6. Scenario-examples Hierarchical Participatory InclusiveExclusive Orthodoxies Wired for learning Learning society Orthodoxy

8. Scenarios as a reflection and learning tool Beyond the here and now Stimulate out-of-the-box thinking Opening up mindsets System thinking FUN!

9. Four steps: 1.AnalyzingResearch into trends, external orientation 2.Selecting Scenario-axes 3.CreatingOut-of-the-box thinking 4.ReflectingAdvice and strategic decisions Scenario methodology

10. Unpredictability Impact Key-dilemmas Trends Selecting the axes

11. Basis: scenario-matrix Two independent and unpredictable variables (driving forces) Four scenarios at the extremes Variabele 1 Variabele 2 Scenario 1Scenario 2 Scenario 4Scenario 3

12. Scenario work in the Master Final semester: integrating different strands Trends in society and education –OECD: Trends shaping education –Open brainstorm Selecting axes Scenario development (still ongoing) Reflections –Impact on your future role as a master teacher –Your responsibility towards the future

14. Trends influencing the future of the teaching profession High impact, highly predictable Market orientation and focus on output Flexibilisation of jobs, focus on employability, competition. Careers as enterprise Globalized knowledge economy High impact, highly unpredictable Attention for diversity School as a social anchor Professionals in the lead Education 2.0: student as prosumer in social networks Medium impact, highly unpredictable Research and evidence in education Low impact, highly predictable Feminisation Potential axes

16. Scenarios for the future of the teaching profession Teacher in the lead Assurance through governance Student as prosumer Student as consumer Scenario 1Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

17. Key dilemma 1 Management and control in education emphasis on the role and professionalism of teachers supporting the call Professional in the lead, versus a need within neo-liberal bureaucracies to control the quality of education and teaching through managers, school boards or national agencies and regulations.

18. Key dilemma 2 The role of the teacher in the class room and the responsibilities that are given to pupils Pupils as consumers of ready-made learning content versus Pupils as producers (or prosumers) who have an active role in the development of knowledge and learning content.

19. Scenario 1: wishdom of crowds Teachers in the lead – students as prosumers Reduced management (non-productive overhead) Working and learning in communities. Contributing to developing/- evaluating knowledge and learning materials Professional-led register and professional oath

20. Scenario 2 Teachers in the lead – students as consumers Educational entrepreneurs Professional led CPD Certificate led: schools, teachers, pupils Standardized performance levels with Bricks Schools as brands

21. Scenario 3 Assurance through governance – students as consumers Knowledge represents economic value European Knowledge bank European basic kwalfications (EQF) Monitoring of participants inside and outside schools through webcams Tight system for managing learning paths

22. Scenario 4 Assurance through governance and students as prosumers European educational system (Eur. Quality Level Law) Lifeling Learning Individual Portfolio LLIP EuroWebContent2020 is dynamic content resourse with contributions from companies, teachers and pupils (gaining bonuspoints when their content is added to EWC2020).

23. Issues for discussion To what extend are the identified trends relevant for contexts outside The Netherlands? Which of the scenarios do the participants identify as most probable, most desirable or worst case for their country? What are the implications for initial and in- service teacher education?