1. © CCSR Building Pathways from the Middle Grades to College: Learnings from the work of the Chicago Consortium of School Research (CCSR) and CRIS Presented by Jenny Nagaoka and Eliza Moeller October 21, 2014 Bush Institute Dallas, Texas

2. © CCSR Overview Brief background on the Consortium on Chicago School Research and the College Readiness Indicator Systems Project. What matters for college success Predictors of high school graduation What happens in the transition to high school Middle grade indicators of high school and college readiness

3. © CCSR Mission of the University of Chicago Consortium on Chicago School Research CCSR’s mission is to support the search for solutions in ways that: build the capacity of schools to improve by identifying strategies and levers for improvement and working across all levels of the system. (Roderick, Easton, & Sebring, 2009) We seek to build the capacity of schools and the district through: Research identifying what matters: Organizing frameworks Indicator development: The critical role of measurement Identify leverage points: Support in identifying strategies for improvement Outreach to a broad audience: Accessible and actionable publications and presentations and individual school data reports.

4. © CCSR What is a College Readiness Indicator System (CRIS)? A system of indicators that: –Measures distinct dimensions of college readiness: academic preparedness, college knowledge, academic tenacity; –Allows for early identification of students in need of added supports to finish high school “college-ready”; –Points to actions at three levels: individual, setting, and system

5. © CCSR CRIS promotes an expanded view of college readiness ACADEMIC PREPAREDNESS ACADEMIC TENACITY COLLEGE KNOWLEDGE Coursework, skills, and achievements needed to succeed at college-level work Beliefs, motivation, attitudes, and behaviors needed to successfully engage with academic challenges and college-going goals Knowledge, skills, and behaviors needed to access college and successfully navigate its demands

6. © CCSR What matters for college success?

7. © CCSR

8. What are does CCSR research tell us about the importance of college knowledge and academic preparedness? College qualifications matter : –Qualifications limit the number of college options students have –Students with low qualifications are unlikely to attain a degree. College choice and institutions matter: –Particularly for students who are “college ready”, their probability of graduating varies by which institution they attend. High schools have an important role in building a college-going climate and providing structured guidance for students to fill in college knowledge gaps so they make informed college choices.

9. © CCSR What matters for high school graduation?

10. © CCSR 9 th graders who are on track are four times more likely to graduate than students who are off track Allensworth and Easton (2005)

11. © CCSR Allensworth and Easton (2005)

12. © CCSR Allensworth and Easton (2007)

13. © CCSR What happens in the transition to high school?

14. © CCSR Attendance rates dramatically drop in 9 th grade Percent of students by attendance categories in 8 th and 9 th grade (same students in each year, 2008-09 in 8 th grade, 2009-10 in 9 th grade)

15. © CCSR Grades also decline substantially in 9 th grade Percent of students by GPA categories in 8 th and 9 th grade (same students in each year, 2008-09 in 8 th grade, 2009-10 in 9 th grade)

16. © CCSR What indicators matter for middle grades?

17. © CCSR What is an effective indicator? An effective indicator: Addresses a problem or issue that is considered to be a priority by district leadership and school staff. Is based on something that school practitioners can have an impact on- (e.g., make sure that it is a malleable factor). Can be measured and acted on in a timely manner Is based on research evidence of what matters in addressing a problem and have a clear connection to important outcomes.

18. © CCSR What are the best indicators of high school success? Core GPA and attendance in eighth grade best predict whether students in high school pass and earn As or Bs Test scores in middle grades predict whether students reach ACT’s test score benchmarks Other information doesn’t tell us more about who will pass, get high grades or get good test scores, including… Race, gender, special education status, bilingual status, age Subtest scores Grades in particular classes Yearly test score gains and test score growth over the middle grades Changes in grades over the middle grades Perseverance, study habits Discipline records, suspensions

19. © CCSR Change from fifth to eighth grade represents improvement that is at the fifth percentile (top line) or 95th percentile (bottom line) in terms of change from fifth to eighth grade in each indicator. The predicted ninth-grade outcome is based on the eighth-grade indicator, controlling for GPA, attendance rates, and ISAT scores in fifth grade. Strategies aimed at improving GPA or attendance in middle school would likely have more of a pay-off for high school and college graduation than efforts aimed at improving test scores Predicted ninth-grade outcome for students with the most and least improvement in attendance, GPAs, and test scores in the middle grades (5 th to 8 th grade)

20. © CCSR Students’ GPA can change over the middle grade years by more than half a point Growth in GPA from Fifth Grade to Eighth Grade Comparing students who start with similar GPA in fifth grade

21. © CCSR Students’ attendance rates in the middle grades are also quite malleable Growth in Attendance Rates from Fifth Grade to Eighth Grade Comparing students who start with similar attendance in fifth grade

22. © CCSR Growth in Reading Test Scores from Fifth Grade to Eighth Grade Comparing students who start with similar test scores in fifth grade Students maintain the same rank order relative to their peers throughout the middle grades in ISAT reading Highest Growth (95th percentile) Lowest Growth (5th percentile)

23. © CCSR Even students who do well in 8 th grade are at risk of being off-track to HS graduation in 9 th grade The risk of being off-track by 8 th grade GPA and attendance

24. © CCSR  Middle-grade information can be used to create simple indicator systems for high school graduation and college readiness with just three indicators  Freshman on-track status and GPA are best predicted by earlier grades and attendance. High school test scores are strongly predicted by earlier test scores.  Grades and attendance are much more malleable than test scores.  Middle-grade indicators can identify some students at high risk of failure in ninth grade, but most students who end up off-track are not struggling in eighth grade. Summary

25. © CCSR For full pdf versions of reports, please visit ccsr.uchicago.edu or contact Jenny Nagaoka at jkn@uchicago.edu or Eliza Moeller at meliza@uchicago.edu jkn@uchicago.edu meliza@uchicago.edu