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Www.AttendanceInstitute.org. Welcome Absenteeism and GPA: Exploring the top indicators of career and college readiness Symia Stigler Executive Director.

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Presentation on theme: "Www.AttendanceInstitute.org. Welcome Absenteeism and GPA: Exploring the top indicators of career and college readiness Symia Stigler Executive Director."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Welcome Absenteeism and GPA: Exploring the top indicators of career and college readiness Symia Stigler Executive Director Attendance Institute AttendanceInstitute.org

3 Attendance Institute The Attendance Institute, is a non-profit organization on a CRUSADE to position attendance as a top priority for school, families and communities. We know that improved performance, better grades, higher levels of engagement and achievement all begin with showing up to school.

4 Time for Action & Investment It is time we use the extensive data and research available to inform action Time to invest:  Proven and innovative strategies  High quality services  Staff, the right number of people at all levels

5 3 Key Areas of Focus 1.Raise Awareness –Utilize the data and research available to raise attendance for all students as a top level school and community priority. 2.Build Capacity –Help districts and communities find and fund the innovative services, technical assistance and dedicated staff required to increase attendance and ultimately increase graduation rates for all students. 3.Replicate What Works– Solutions exist, we will continue to identify what works and replicate those efforts.

6 Changing Trends & Improving Outcomes Main goal in our work is to identify and drive solutions that: Improve achievement and graduation rates for all students Eliminate attendance and learning barriers Improve attendance Close process gaps Increase the levels of authentic engagement with families Target supplemental services to the students most in need

7 attendanceinstitute.org

8 Featured Speaker Elaine Allensworth, PhD Lewis-Sebring Director –University of Chicago Consortium on Chicago School Research (CCSR)

9 © CCSR About CCSR The mission of CCSR is to build capacity for school reform by identifying what matters for student success and school improvement and creating the critical indicators to chart progress. A number of features distinguish UChicago CCSR from other, more typical research organizations: -a focus on one place—Chicago -engagement with a diverse group of stakeholders, -a wide range of methods and multiple investigators, a commitment to sharing research findings with diverse publics.

10 © CCSR Today’s Presentation Looking across all grades Pre-K to 12 th grade  Preschool and the early grades  Middle grades  High School  Why are students absent?  Changes in attendance over time

11 © CCSR Do Absences Matter?  From preschool through high school, absenteeism has serious implications for students’ academic outcomes  Students who are absent have: -Lower test scores -Lower likelihood of being on-track in high school -Lower likelihood of graduating -Lower course grades – taking them out of the running for college completion

12 © CCSR Definitions Attendance rate = percentage of days present out of total days enrolled Absence rate = percentage of days absent out of total days enrolled Chronic absenteeism = missing 10% or more of days enrolled Absences include excused, unexcused, suspensions, and course cutting

13 © CCSR Preschool and Early Grade Attendance

14 © CCSR Previous findings on the prevalence of preschool absences  There are very high rates of absenteeism in preschool -About 40 percent of CPS preschool students are chronically absent  Attendance improves substantially in kindergarten and the early elementary years  Across a range of background characteristics, race has the strongest association with chronic absenteeism

15 © CCSR *** 90% correct 68% correct ** * Indicates that scores are significantly different from scores of students with absences between 0% and 3.3% at p<.05 level; **p<.01; ***p<.001 Students with lower preschool attendance have lower letter recognition scores on the K readiness tool Not controlling for prior knowledge

16 © CCSR Students with lower preschool attendance have lower kindergarten readiness scores on all subtests Not controlling for prior knowledge * Indicates that scores are significantly different from scores of students with absences between 0% and 3.3% at p<.05 level; **p<.01; ***p< % 75% 90% 68% 79% 71%

17 © CCSR Kindergarten readiness scores are lower for students missing 10% or more, even after controlling for prior skills and background Analyses control for prior achievement, prior preschool, race, gender, neighborhood poverty/social status, special education status, ELL status, and program type. * Indicates that scores are significantly different from scores of students with absences between 0% and 3.3% at p<.05 level; **p<.01; ***p<.001 ** * *** *

18 © CCSR The relationship between absences and kindergarten readiness scores is stronger for students with lower prior skills than for those with higher prior skills Analyses control for prior preschool experience, race, gender, neighborhood poverty and social status, special education status, ELL status, and program type. Missing data points represent values with fewer than 30 students.

19 © CCSR Is attendance in preschool related to outcomes later on?  Is attendance during preschool related to attendance in later grades?  How is attendance during preschool related to learning outcomes in 2 nd grade? -How does being chronically absent over multiple years in the early grades (preschool through 2 nd grade) relate to 2 nd grade outcomes?

20 © CCSR The more children are absent in preschool, the lower their 2 nd grade scores Indicates that scores are significantly different from scores of students with absences between 0% and 3.3% at p<.05 level; **p<.01; ***p<.001 Not controlling for background characteristics Some risk

21 © CCSR Roughly 1/3 of chronically absent 4-year-olds continue to be chronically absent in kindergarten

22 © CCSR Students with more years of chronic absenteeism have lower 2 nd grade scores * Indicates that scores are significantly different from scores of students who are never chronically absent, at p<.05 level; **p<.01; ***p< As outlined in the DIBLES 6th Edition Assessment and Scoring Guide (Good & Kaminksi, 2002). Some risk indicates the need for additional intervention. At risk indicates the need for substantial interventions. Some risk + At risk +

23 © CCSR Attendance matters, even for the youngest students  Attending school regularly is particularly beneficial for students coming into school with lower skills  Being chronically absent is related to -Lower academic and social-emotional outcomes at the end of preschool -Lower attendance in future years -For those who continue to be chronically absent, lower reading outcomes at end of 2 nd grade

24 © CCSR Looking Forward to High School and College: Middle-Grades Indicators of Readiness

25 © CCSR What do we mean by being successful in high school and college?  Passing classes / Being On-Track -Strongly tied to high school graduation  Getting A’s and B’s -Strongly tied to college enrollment, persistence and graduation from college

26 © CCSR What are the best indicators of high school success? Core GPA and attendance in eighth grade best predict whether students in high school pass and earn As or Bs Other information doesn’t tell us more about who will pass, get high grades or get good test scores, including… Race, gender, special education status, bilingual status, age Test and Subtest scores Grades in particular classes Yearly test score gains and test score growth over the middle grades Changes in grades over the middle grades Perseverance, study habits Discipline records, suspensions

27 © CCSR Note: Based on students entering ninth grade in the school year Students’ risk of being off-track in ninth grade by eighth-grade core GPA and attendance rate Middle grade students with low grades or poor attendance are at high risk of being off-track in high school

28 © CCSR Students’ probability of earning As or Bs in ninth grade by core eighth-grade GPA and attendance rate Only students with the best grades and attendance in middle school are likely (but not guaranteed) to earn As and Bs in ninth grade. Note: Based on students entering ninth grade in the school year

29 © CCSR Chronically absent middle grade students are very likely to be off-track for graduation in high school Chronically absent Source: Allensworth, Gwynne, Moore, & de la Torre (forthcoming)

30 © CCSR Small improvements in attendance are associated with large improvements in later outcomes Predicted probability of being on-track in ninth grade for students with the most and least improvement in attendance (from fifth to eighth grade) among students with similar attendance, GPA and test scores in fifth grade

31 © CCSR High School Absenteeism

32 © CCSR In high school Absences almost double from 8 th to 9 th grade Source: Recreated from Rosenkranz, de la Torre, Stevens, & Allensworth (forthcoming); updated with to data

33 © CCSR In high school Absences account for failure and declining grades What explains course failures in 9 th grade? -Demographic & economic background characteristics explain 7% of course failures -Eighth-grade test scores explain an additional 5% (12% total) -Student behaviors—absences and effort—explain an additional 61% (73% total) Students’ GPAs drop by half of a point from 8 th to 9 th grade, and this is almost completely explained by the increase in absences. Source: Allensworth & Easton (2007) and Rosenkranz, de la Torre, Stevens, & Allensworth (forthcoming)

34 © CCSR In high school Absences hamper strong grades, even for high scoring students Ninth Grade Absences 23% high-scoring students are absent 20 days or more Source: CCSR analysis of CPS administrative data

35 © CCSR In high school Absence is very predictive of dropout/graduation Each week of absence per semester in 9 th grade lowers the likelihood of graduating by 25 percentage points Average ninth grade absences per semester  Chronically absent Source: Allensworth & Easton (2007) Based on incoming freshman in

36 © CCSR Why Are Students Absent?

37 © CCSR  Many factors are common from preschool through high school -Health and health care -Family/background factors -Classroom and school factors  High school brings additional challenges

38 © CCSR In preschool Health, logistics, and family-related reasons account for 80 percent of why children miss school Note: "Other" includes school phobia, lack of sleep, religious observances, weather, safety issues, and a general other category. Source: Ehrlich, Gwynne, Pareja, & Allensworth (2013)

39 © CCSR In preschool Besides illness, there are many obstacles that families face  Obstacles families face ‒Trouble getting child to/from school ‒Parent/sibling sick ‒Family emergency ‒Child care issues  Some family circumstances can make managing these obstacles more difficult ‐Single parenthood, poor parental health, using public transportation to school, living in poverty Source: Ehrlich, Gwynne, Pareja, & Allensworth (2013)

40 © CCSR In middle school and high school, illness is the primary reason for absences; other reasons become more common in high school Source: CCSR analysis of 2007 student survey data

41 © CCSR In high school There are additional reasons for missing school  High school context makes it more difficult for teachers to monitor and address student behavior  Problems getting to school on time -Transportation issues—buses, distance  Safety -Avoiding fights  Increased suspensions % SuspendedAverage # Days 8 th grade ( ) th grade ( )215.7 Source: CCSR analysis of CPS student interviews and to CPS administrative data

42 © CCSR In high school Classroom factors matter: The same student often has different attendance in different classes  Some teachers’ students miss 13 days more per semester than other teachers’ students Among teachers who share the same students, and controlling for structural characteristics of the class  Students are more likely to attend some of their classes than others: -In the middle of the day (not 1st or 9th/10th period) -Their smaller classes – those with fewer students -Their classes with higher-achieving peers Source: Allensworth & Luppescu (forthcoming)

43 © CCSR Attendance Improvements

44 © CCSR Systems and programs that promote better monitoring and support have shown improvements in attendance  Know your district’s data -What data elements are you pulling? How often? -What indicators can you track in your schools  On-track data tools  Examples such as CPS Check & Connect May also be a need for coordination with other sectors  Health care  Transportation  Safety

45 © CCSR Can schools have much of an influence on attendance?  Yes!  Schools with more supportive environments have better attendance than other schools serving similar students  There have been substantial improvements over the last few years

46 Thank you Attendance Institute Website University of Chicago CCSR


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