1. 1 IR5001 Theories and Concepts in International Relations PI5013 Contemporary Research Issues Week 11: DEMOCRATIZATION Patrick Bernhagen Room: F69, Edward Wright Building e-mail: P.Bernhagen@abdn.ac.uk tel: 27-2720

2. 2 Source: Polity IV Country Reports 2003

3. 3 Source: Ronald Inglehart, Mansoor Moaddel and Mark Tessler (2006) 'Xenophobia and In-Group Solidarity in Iraq: A Natural Experiment on the Impact of Insecurity', Perspectives on Politics, Vol. 4, Issue 03, pp. 495-505; Note: 14 countries with predominantly Islamic societies highlighted in bold.

4. 4 How to study democratization? I.Democracy 1)What is it? 2)Why want it? II.Democratization in historical perspective 1)Are there waves? 2)If so, how many? III.Driving forces and obstacles to democratic transition 1)Statehood 2)Economy 3)Culture 4)International context

5. 5 I. Democracy 1. What is it? A democratic country is one in which the Sovereign and the people [are] one and the same person (J.-J. Rousseau, 1754). versus [T]he democratic method is that institutional arrangement for arriving at political decisions in which individuals acquire the power to decide by means of a competitive struggle for the peoples vote (J.A. Schumpeter, 1943). Different things to different people (W.B. Gallie, 1964)?

6. 6 What is democracy? Dahls (1971) two dimensions of polyarchy: 1.Participation 2.Competition Dahls (1989) five criteria 1.Effective participation 2.Equality in voting 3.Enlightened understanding 4.Exercising final control over the agenda 5.Inclusion of adults Further reading: Hyland 1995, ch. 3 http://www.abdn.ac.uk/pir/notes07/Level3/PI3049/Hyland_ch3.pdf

7. 7 2. Why not something else (e.g., dictatorship, monarchy, theocracy, technocracy, anarchy,...)? Democracys instrumental value, promoting: –Human rights –Personal freedoms –Aggregate social happiness –Self-determination and moral autonomy –Human development –Prosperity –Peace Further reading: Dahl 1998, ch. 5, Dahl 1989, ch. 6

8. 8 Democracys intrinsic value? Kants conception of the person as a morally autonomous agent: Being a good person means being a morally autonomous person (MAP) Being a MAP consists in ordering ones life in accordance with ones conception of the good. Unproblematic in 1-person society, but... Find a form of association... in which each, while uniting himself with all, may still obey himself alone, and remain as free as before (Rousseau, 1754). Further reading: Dahl 1989, chs. 3, 4, 5, 7; Hyland 1995, ch. 7 http://www.abdn.ac.uk/pir/notes07/Level3/PI3049/Hyland_ch7.pdf

9. 9 3. Can democracy be measured? Dichotomous regime classification (Przeworski et al. 1996) Freedom House political rights score (7 to 1) Polity IV measure of institutionalized Democracy (0 to 10) World Banks Political Institutions Database (-2.5 to +2.5) Vanhanens (2000) Polyarchy Index (1 to 100) LIT: Berg-Schlosser, D. (2004d), 'The quality of democracies in Europe as measured by current indicators of democratization and good governance', Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics 20(1): 28-55; Munck, G. L. & Verkuilen, J. (2002), 'Conceptualizing and Measuring Democracy - Evaluating Alternative Indices', Comparative Political Studies 35(1): 5-34.

10. 10 II. Democratization in historical perspective Three major waves (e.g. Huntington): I.Early 1800s – end of WWI II.1945 to early 1960s III.1974 to 1991 Two long waves and three major positive conjunctures (Berg-Schlosser) First long wave: Early 1800s – WWI First conjuncture: 1918/19 Second conjuncture: 1945/52 Second long wave: 1945 – 1990 (or ongoing?) Third conjuncture: 1989-91

11. 11 Emergence of Democracies since 1800 Based on Jaggers and Gurr (1996), countries with 8 and more points on the Polity III democracy scale

12. 12

13. 13 III. Driving forces and obstacles 1) Statehood 1)No state, no democracy (Linz 2007) 2)Identity 3)Nationhood

14. 14 2) Economy Modernization and economic development (Lipset 1960, Vanhanen 1997) –Growth of bourgeoisie –rising social mobilization (literacy, urbanization, non- agricultural employment) –Non-linear relationship (Kuznets curve of inequality) –What about India? –Or the Middle East? Investors prefer democracies (Boix 2003) Business actors contingent democrats (Bellin)

15. 15 3) Culture cultural homogeneity? if segmented, some consociational arrangements (Lijphart 1977) democratic political culture (Almond and Verba 1963)

16. 16 4) International environment neighbourhood effects, diffusion and contagion (e.g. Daniel Brinks and Michael Coppedge (2006) Diffusion is No Illusion: Neighbor Emulation in the Third Wave of Democracy Comparative Political Studies (May). The post-1975 international conjuncture (Przeworski et al., Sustainable Democracy, 1995) –decline of the Bretton Woods gold/dollar peg –oil price shocks, mounting foreign debt –turn toward fiscal austerity in/by developed countries Globalization (Fukuyama) Democracy promotion –US –EU