1. Slides on Climate Change: Professor Huntting Brown Wright State University September 24, 2008 1

2. Prof. Brown’s Opening Statement Knowing only the temperature and precipitation patterns that occur in an area, we can generally predict the type of ecosystem that will be found there. (see next slide) Knowing only the temperature and precipitation patterns that occur in an area, we can generally predict the type of ecosystem that will be found there. (see next slide) ► Desert and rainforest ecosystems differ in their plant and animal life. These and other ecosystems all have their own unique combinations of environmental requirements, e.g., temperature, precipitation, wind, soil type, and topography. ► Desert and rainforest ecosystems differ in their plant and animal life. These and other ecosystems all have their own unique combinations of environmental requirements, e.g., temperature, precipitation, wind, soil type, and topography. ► Long-term changes in either temperature or precipitation will cause an ecosystem to change from one type to another. ► Temperature and precipitation changes are occurring as a result of climate change and both plant and animal species are starting to be impacted. ► Greater changes projected for the future will result in more major impacts, including a large number of extinctions. 2

3. 3 http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/national assessment/overviewecosystems.htm

4. Changes in average temperature 1955-2005. From: IPCC. 2007. WGII. Fig. 14.1 4

5. Examples of Organisms in Trouble Now 5

6. 6 1979 2007 From: Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States (2008)

7. 7 Polar bears were placed on the US list of threatened species in May 2008. Photo from: www.fws.gov/.../2006/polarbearphotos.htmlwww.fws.gov/.../2006/polarbearphotos.html Credit: Scott Schliebe/USFWS

8. The Pika is loosing habitat due to a changing climate in the intermountain west. Photo from: http://fwp.mt.gov/fieldguide/detail_AMAEA01020.aspx 8

9. Coral reefs are often found close to their temperature maximum. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/Paleoclimatology_CloseUp/paleoclimatology_closeu p_2.html 9

10. Other Examples of Changes 10

11. Zones assist determining appropriate trees to plant. Based on average low temperatures in 10 F increments. Z6= -10 to 0F From: http://www.arborday.org/media/map_change.cfm 11

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14. Studies showing physical and biological already detected. From: IPCC. 2007. Synthesis, Fig. 1.2 14

15. Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States (2008) Currently ► “Many North American species have shifted their ranges, typically to the north or to higher elevations.” ► Research “suggests a significant lengthening of the growing season and higher net productivity in the higher latitudes of North America where temperature increases are relatively high.” ► Phenology (timing of life cycle events) changes have occurred in e.g., birds, butterflies and amphibians. 15

16. Shifts in Timing ► “Warmer springs have led to earlier nesting for 28 migrating bird species on the east coast of the US… ► In northern Canada, red squirrels are breeding 18 days earlier than 10 years ago ► Several frog species now initiate breeding calls 10-13 days earlier than a century ago. ► In lowland California, 70% of 23 butterfly species advance the date of first spring flights by an average 24 days over 31 years.” From: Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States (2008), citations omitted. 16

17. Dayton Area Phenology Changes Some Dayton area plants that are blooming earlier than they did 25 years ago. Mouse-ear chickweed: 35 days Trillium: 25 days Jack-in-the-pulpit: 20 days Dandelions: 17.5 days Toothwort: 12.5 days Garlic mustard: 12.5 days Phlox: 10 days Source: Wright State University From: Dayton Daily News, September 8, 2008. 17

18. Projected Future Changes 18

19. Changes in US Frost Days and Growing Season by 2030. From: US Climate Change Science Program, 2008: Fig. 1.7 19

20. Projected Surface Temperature Changes for the Late 21 st Century From: IPCC. 2007. Synthesis, Fig. SPM.6 Scenario A1B assumes very rapid economic growth, a global population peaking in mid century and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies, including both fossil intensive and non- fossil intensive (p. 44) 20

21. Projected changes in relative precipitation at the end of the 21 st Century. From: IPCC. 2007. Synthesis, Fig. 3.3 21 WinterSummer

22. What we can anticipate if temperatures continue to increase. From: IPCC. 2007. WG II. Fig. 4.4 22

23. Projected Future Global Scale Impacts ► “Resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceed this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change associated disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, and ocean acidification) and other global change drivers (e.g., land use change, pollution, and over exploitation of resources). Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States (2008) 23

24. ► Over the course of this century, net carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is likely to peak before mid century and then weaken or even reverse, thus amplifying climate change. ► Approximately 20-30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed [preindustrial levels by] 1.5-2.5 C [2.7-4.5 F]” Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States (2008) 24

25. ► “For increases in global average temperature exceeding 1.5 to 2.5C and accompanying atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, major changes are projected in ecosystem structure and function, species’ ecological interactions, and species’ geographical ranges---with predominantly negative consequences for biodiversity, and ecosystem goods and services such as water and food supply.” Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States (2008) 25

26. Climate Change and Ecosystems: General References ► Recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007):  http://www.ipcc.ch/# http://www.ipcc.ch/# ► Citizens’ Guide to the IPCC Summary for Policymakers (2007)  http://www.islandpress.com/assets/library/28_whatipccsai dwithsummary.pdf http://www.islandpress.com/assets/library/28_whatipccsai dwithsummary.pdf http://www.islandpress.com/assets/library/28_whatipccsai dwithsummary.pdf ► Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Report Series (2005)  http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.aspx http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.aspx  Ecosystem and Human Well-Being Synthesis (2005) ► http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/doc ument.356.aspx.pdf http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/doc ument.356.aspx.pdf http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/doc ument.356.aspx.pdf26

27. ► Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States (2008) http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/scientific- assessment/Scientific-AssessmentFINAL.pdf http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/scientific- assessment/Scientific-AssessmentFINAL.pdf  Summary and Findings Only ► http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/scientific -assessment/6-SA-FAQ-LO-RES.pdf http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/scientific -assessment/6-SA-FAQ-LO-RES.pdf http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/scientific -assessment/6-SA-FAQ-LO-RES.pdf27

28. Climate Change and Ecosystems Davis, M. B., and R. G. Shaw. 2001. Range Shifts and Adaptive Responses to Quaternary Climate Change. Science 292: 673-679. Nemani, R. R., et al. 2003. Climate-Driven Increase in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 1982 to 1999. Science 300: 1560-1563. Parmesan, C., and G. Yohe. 2003. A Globally Coherent Fingerprint of Climate Change Impacts Across Natural Systems. Nature 421:37-42. Parmesan, C. 2006. Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 37:637-69. Root, T.L., et al. 2003. Fingerprints of Global Warming on Wild Animals and Plants. Nature 421: 57-60. Thomas, C. D., et al. 2004. Extinction Risk from Climate Change. Nature 427: 145-148. Walther, G.-R., et al. 2002. Ecological Responses to Recent Climate Change. Nature 416: 389-95. 28

29. 29 2003

30. Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region Warmer  5-20 F in Summer  5-12 F in Winter Seasonal Shift, Overall Drier  No change in precipitation, but higher temperature will mean greater evaporation and therefore drier soils, esp. Summer and Fall. 30

31. More Extremes  Downpours  Extreme-heat days  Droughts Growing Season  Lengthened by several weeks, but varying cross region Lake Levels drop  More evaporation and declining ice cover 31