1. Texas Projection Measure

2. What is TPM? TPM is a method for… – projecting future student scores -OR- – determining whether a student is likely to pass TAKS assessments, in the next high-stakes grade using students’ current year scale scores

3. What is TPM? TPM is a method for… – projecting future student scores -OR- – determining whether a student is likely to pass TAKS assessments, in the next high-stakes grade using students’ current year scale scores Grades 5, 8, or 11 with the exception of writing, which is projected from grade 4 to grade 7 vertical or horizontal depending on the grade and subject TPM provides an indication of how student performance at the end of a school year positions a student to meet the standard in future grades.

4. Where is TPM in this picture?

5. 2009 TPM TPM will provide projections for all TAKS English- and Spanish-version tests (except 8th grade science) TPM projections are made separately for each subject area: reading/ELA, mathematics, writing, science, and social studies. The TPM will be used in 2009 for students taking the TAKS, TAKS (Accommodated), and linguistically accommodated testing (LAT) versions of TAKS.

6. 2010 TPM TEA proposes to: expand the TPM for use with students taking the TAKS–M assessments; and implement a transition table approach to growth for students participating in TAKS–Alt.

7. Projections from and to… From page 9

8. TPM Process TPM Equations are developed by TEA/Pearson using TAKS results from prior years. A student’s current scale scores are used for individual subject calculations. Campus mean score for that TPM subject is used. TPM is calculated for students who have current year scale scores in the subjects and language versions needed.

9. TPM Calculations What is included? From page 9

10. TPM Requirements A student must test all subjects needed for the calculation in the same language. A student must test all subjects in TAKS (the “regular” form, Accommodated form, or linguistically accommodated test form) When projections for students in grades 3–8 are calculated, the student’s reading and mathematics scale scores used must be the vertical scale scores.

11. TPM Requirements TPM requires that a student (1) have a valid scale score in the current-year predictor subjects, (2) have a current-year scale score in the projection subject, and (3) have a valid scale score in the same language (English or Spanish) for all scores used as predictors to receive a projection.

12. No TPM available for students who… take TAKS in two language versions, such as taking TAKS reading in Spanish and TAKS mathematics in English, do not take all tests that are needed for a projection, take TAKS for one subject and TAKS–M for another subject, and are in grades 5 and 8 with student ID information that does not allow their results on the primary reading administration to be matched with records in the TAKS history file.

13. TPM Calculations Page 12 and 13

14. TPM Constants and Coefficients Page 14 http://www.tea.state.tx.us/index3.aspx?id=3688&menu_id3=793

15. TPM Student Identified Groups

16. TPM for TAKS-M

17. TPM for TAKS-Alt

18. Student - Specific Scenario

19. State Accountability Standards

20. State Accountability Federal Accountability # Students Met Standard # Students Tested If the Standard is not met: Apply Required Improvement Recalculate Using TPM Use Exceptions Note: Can use any combination of the three provisions, but can only use one provisions for a single indicator. # Students Met Standard # Students Tested If the Standard is not met: Calculate Performance Improvement/Safe Harbor – Compare Met Standard Rate for 2009 and 2010 (without TPM) – A 10% Reduction of Failures and Meeting the Other Measure for the Group or showing any improvement. Recalculate Using TPM Accountability Calculations

21. Texas Projection Measure Can be used to move from Unacceptable to Acceptable or Acceptable to Recognized. The gain from 2008 must allow the cell to reach the standard if the gain were repeated the next year. There is no floor when moving to Acceptable. The rating must be within 5 points to move to Recognized. Required Improvement is always reviewed first. If it cannot increase the cell rating, TPM is applied. Required Improvement State Accountability: Provisions that May Increase Rating by One Level Identifies if student is projected to pass next high stakes test at 5 th, 8 th or 11 th grade. Only available for students in grades 3-10 who:  Test on TAKS, TAKS-Acc, TAKS-LAT  Have scored results this year for both Reading and Math  Test in the same language TPM will not be available for:  7 th Grade Writing  8 th Grade Science  All 11 th Grade Subjects TPM can increase the campus rating to Acceptable, Recognized or Exemplary. If applying TPM does not raise the cell rating, Exceptions are reviewed. Exceptions Exceptions are the last choice. Exceptions cannot be used for the same cell two years in a row. Exceptions are limited depending on the number of cells measured. The initial cell result must be within 5 points of the standard. Acceptable/RecognizedExemplary 5-8 Cells1 ExceptionWith 10+ Cells evaluation, can use 1Exception 9-11 Cells2 Exceptions 12-15 Cells3 Exceptions 16+ Cells4 Exceptions SAISD: Research & Evaluation

22. State Accountability Federal Accountability Test Versions:  TAKS – All Subjects/Grades  TAKS-Accommodated – Science, Social Studies and all 11 th Grade subjects Also includes  Dropout Rate: 7-8 (2%)  Completion Rate (75%)  On-time Graduates and Continuers/Class of 2008 Test Versions (Reading/Math only):  TAKS  TAKS-Accommodated  TAKS-M  TAKS-Alt  TAKS-LAT (2+ years in US) Also includes  Participation (95%) and  Attendance Rate (90%) or  Graduation Rate (70%)  On-time Graduates/Class of 2008 2009 Accountability Standards SubjectAcceptableRecognizedExemplary Reading/ELA, Social Studies, and Writing 70%75%90% Math 55%75%90% Science 50%75%90% SubjectMeets AYP Reading/ELA 67% Math 58% SAISD: Research & Evaluation

23. Calculating a State Campus Rating SubjectAll StudentsAfrican AmericanHispanicEconomically Disadvantaged Reading/ELA747084757183747083727382 Math656078666177646076656076 Science706975717074706873686675 Social Studies939098949095938998928997 Initial Campus Rating = Acceptable Scores: 2009 Met Std/ 2008 Met Std/ 2009 TPM SubjectAll StudentsAfrican AmericanHispanicEconomically Disadvantaged Reading/ELA747084757183747083727382 Math656078666177646076656076 Science706975717074706873686675 Social Studies939098949095938998928997 Final Campus Rating = Recognized Scores: 2009 Met Std/ 2008 Met Std/ 2009 TPM SAISD: Research & Evaluation

24. Calculating a State Campus Rating SubjectAll StudentsAfrican AmericanHispanicEconomically Disadvantaged Reading/ELA817884817685807385817984 Math727078726877717674737276 Science756975697674757675726672 Social Studies89909890879392 98918595 Campus A Initial______ Final______ Scores: 2009 Met Std/ 2008 Met Std/ 2009 TPM 24 Campus B Initial______ Final______ Scores: 2009 Met Std/ 2008 Met Std/ 2009 TPM SubjectAll StudentsAfrican AmericanHispanicEconomically Disadvantaged Reading/ELA706586696484686688706779 Math545058545861525754525359 Science464149454450403048434551 Social Studies758798768895748998788697 SAISD: Research & Evaluation

25. Calculating a State Campus Rating Campus C Initial______ Final______ Scores: 2009 Met Std/ 2008 Met Std/ 2009 TPM SubjectAll StudentsAfrican AmericanHispanicEconomically Disadvantaged Reading/ELA857293907294867492857391 Math786090806191766090796092 Science886991867086906890856993 Writing939098949095938998928997 SAISD: Research & Evaluation

27. TPM Summary Statements Table Activity: Create a ‘T’ chart which outlines the key points and cautions related to TPM. Key Points Cautions