1. Lesson 15: Freshwater Issues Part I – Water Scarcity Amy Duray EVPP 490 003 March 31, 2010

2. How Water is Used Consumption Sanitation Production (Industrial, Agricultural) Power Generation Transportation Habitat Drainage

3. Water and the MDGs MDG-7 (Ensure Environmental Sustainability) Target 10 under MDG 7 is “Halve by 2015 the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation.”

4. Three Types of Water Crises From: Lall, et. al 2008 Crisis of access to safe drinking water Crisis of water pollution Crisis of scarcity

5. Traditional Water Stress Indicators Source: SMAKHTIN, V.U., REVENGA, C., DÖLL, P. (2004) Taking into account environmental water requirements in global-scale water resources assessments. Research Report of the CGIAR Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture. No. 2, International Water Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka, 24 pp. Accessed via: http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/assessment/Publications/Maps_for_Research_Report_No2.htm

6. Water Stress Considering Ecosystem Requirements

7. Primary Watersheds of South, Southeast, and East Asia 46 – Amur 74 – Yalu Jiang 54 – Hwang He (Yellow) 75 – Yangtze (Chiang Jiang) 73 – Xi Jiang (Pearl) 53 – Hong (Red) 64 – Mekong 58 – Kapuas 62 – Mahakam 49 – Chao Phrya 68 – Salween 57 – Irrawaddy 48 – Brahmaputra 51 – Ganges 56 – Indus 66 – Narmada 71 – Tapti 63 – Mahanadi 52 – Godavari 60 – Krishna Source: Ravenga et. al (1998) via Earthtrends Data Portal

8. DPSIR Framework (1 of 2) A. Drivers: Deeply held (and often contrasting) beliefs and ethics regarding water management Increasing Human populations, especially in historically occupied river basins and coastal enclaves Increasing globalization in world economy B. Pressures: Agricultural expansion and increased irrigation withdraws Urbanization Increasing groundwater extraction Increasing industrial withdrawals Increasing industrial (point source) pollution Increasing agricultural (non-point source) pollution Increasing demand for energy and hydropower Dams and flow regime modification Changing global climate, especially observed changes in seasonal precipitation and glacial ice Increasing scarcity in certain regions due to either an increased supported population or decreasing hydrologic flow

9. DPSIR Framework (2 of 2) C. State-and-Trends: Increasing sea temperatures (effects water density, which effects sea levels, salt water intrusion into estuarine areas AND effects storm frequencies along coastal regions) Changes in precipitation/Increasing variability especially with respect to monsoons. (UNEP, 2007) Increasing personal access to water (in aggregate, per UN) Increasing contamination in many river basins (Ravenga et. al, 1998) D. Impacts: Increasing time/labor to access water supplies in some locations (UNEP, 2007) Decreased total flow, especially in downstream communities (Ravenga et. al, 1998) Increasing use of water systems to carry away wastes deposited there by sanitation systems (or unsanitary wastes) Decreasing habitat quality for aquatic/riparian flora and fauna Decreasing freshwater diversity D. Responses: Increasing water diversion for reservoirs, flood control, and hydropower Development of water economies (e.g. entrepreneurial or mandated trucking of potable waters in underserved areas) Development of Polluter-Pays policies (especially in East Asian Countries – GEO-4 p. 219) Development of demand-side water management strategies (China/Mongolia Amur region – GEO-4 p. 219) Improvements in water use efficiency, esp. for irrigation in agriculture and industrial uses. Market-based incentives for efficiency increases and utility upgrades Bi-lateral and Multi-lateral treaties for water management and hydropower Proliferation of “soft-path” water purification, collection, and distribution methods (Gleick, 1993)

10. State and Trends Increase in annual water demand 2005-2030 (Billion m 3 )

11. China (1 of 4) 4 th Largest national freshwater resources North = Scarcity, South = Quality Drivers: – Population Growth, Development, industrialization – Concentration of population in historic river basins – Communist Party structure and organizational culture Video: China’s Water Woes (NY Times)

12. Yellow River Source: Ravenga et. al (1998) via Earthtrends Data Portal

13. Yangtze River Source: Ravenga et. al (1998) via Earthtrends Data Portal

14. China (2 of 4) Agricultural withdraws constitute 66% of water use in China Waste/Inefficiencies in Water use and distribution Increasing affluence of Chinese population (esp. in cities) means that water consumptions patterns are becoming more like European and American users – more and longer showers, household washing machines and dishwashers. Millennia of hydrologic alteration of the Yellow River and especially hydropower construction under Mao Desertification-induced siltation in the Yellow River basin Pressures: Scarcity

15. China (3 of 4) State and Trends: Scarcity See Picture – NY Times - Where Water is ScarceWhere Water is Scarce Two-thirds of China’s 660 cities have less water than they need 1 in 6 cities have “severe” water shortages Several cities in the North near Beijing and Tianjin could run out of water in 5-7 years. Urban water consumption 2004-2005 grew by 6.6% Groundwater provides 70% of drinking water

16. China (4 of 4) Impacts: Scarcity Extreme groundwater/aquifer depletion (See Picture – NY Times - Where Water is Scarce)Where Water is Scarce Yellow River Delta often dry, leading to habitat destruction, lack of land creation Seawater intrusion into estuaries Subsidence Response: Scarcity 1987 – Yellow River Water Distribution Formula (Ma, 2007) Reforestation efforts on the Loess Plateau (Ma, 2007) South to North Water Diversion Project

17. South-to-North Water Diversion Project NY Times: Sending Water NorthSending Water North From: NY Times via Yale Environment 360

18. Published by AAAS C. J. Vörösmarty et al., Science 289, 284 -288 (2000) Figure 2. The imprint of accumulated relative water demand from all sectors (DIA/Q) plotted as a function of downstream distance along two major rivers in eastern Asia. The contemporary setting is contrasted against the three scenarios of potential conditions in 2025 simulated by CGCM1/WBM. Trajectories are unique for individual main-stem rivers and involve a complex interplay between the geography of river discharge and water use. An increase in this index along the downstream direction accompanies an increase in accumulated water demand, a decrease in discharge, or both, whereas a lowering of the curve reflects dilution from local runoff or less impacted tributaries. DIA/Q is an index of water competition and reuse as well as a surrogate for potential water quality problems.

19. Mekong River Source: Ravenga et. al (1998) via Earthtrends Data Portal

20. Mekong River True international river – Six riparian states 3 rd highest River in term of Biological Diversity (behind Amazon and Congo) 72 million inhabitants of the basin (2005 – up from 63 million in 1995) Growth rates slowing in some areas (China, Thailand, Myanmar) but rising in others (Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam) – expected positive growth through 2050.

21. Mekong River Pressures: Navigation – plans to dredge and blast to increase carrying capacity Hydropower: – China planning 8 hydropower dams on upper reaches (2 built, 2 under construction) – Laos plans 6 dams on Laotian tributaries Fish Exploitation Patchy international coordination

22. Mekong River State-and-Trends: Extremely abundant resources – 1700 fish species know, several endangered Largely natural flow regime supports this level of diversity

23. Mekong River Impacts: Impacts to human nutrition: – 80% of dietary protein provided by fish of Mekong – Kai, a high-protein littoral plant, supplies additional protein to diets Damming disrupts the natural flood cycle – Impacting agriculture downstream – Impacting aquatic food cycle Decreased flow expected (up to 23% decline)

24. Response Mekong River Commission Basin-wide impact assessment requirements Increasing community-driven activism

25. Good Links for Water Links for Water Resources: Asia Pacific Water Forum (APWF): http://www.apwf.org/ WWAP (World Water Assessment Programme): http://www.unesco.org/water/wwap/http://www.apwf.org/ http://www.unesco.org/water/wwap/ Links for information for local/Subregion exploration: Mekong Basin Research Network (United Nations University): http://www.mekongnet.org/Main_Page Mekong River Commission: http://www.mrcmekong.org/ India Water Portal: http://www.indiawaterportal.org/ GWP CACENA (Global Water Partnership Central Asia and Caucasus): http://www.gwpcacena.org/ GWP SAS (Global Water Partnership South Asia): http://www.gwpsouthasia.org/ GWP SEA (Global Water Partnership Southeast Asia): http://www.gwpsea.org/ KWF (Korea Water Forum): http://www.koreawaterforum.org/ JWF (Japan Water Forum): http://www.waterforum.jp/ NEW: The Asia Water Project: China: http://www.asiawaterproject.org/ http://www.mekongnet.org/Main_Pagehttp://www.mrcmekong.org/http://www.indiawaterportal.org/ http://www.gwpcacena.org/http://www.gwpsouthasia.org/http://www.gwpsea.org/http://www.koreawaterforum.org/http://www.waterforum.jp/http://www.asiawaterproject.org/