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© EUROCONTROL Presentation to EUROCONTROL/FAA Action Plan 6 TIM 8Collaborative Decision Making Applications in Air Traffic Flow Management ATFM Priorities.

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Presentation on theme: "© EUROCONTROL Presentation to EUROCONTROL/FAA Action Plan 6 TIM 8Collaborative Decision Making Applications in Air Traffic Flow Management ATFM Priorities."— Presentation transcript:

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2 © EUROCONTROL Presentation to EUROCONTROL/FAA Action Plan 6 TIM 8Collaborative Decision Making Applications in Air Traffic Flow Management ATFM Priorities Evaluation Study Alison Hudgell QinetiQ

3 © EUROCONTROL Background n ATFM Priority Options Study (1998) for European Commission u how to reduce operational impact of congestion u considered chronic congestion and crises u stakeholder interviews u proposed prioritisation strategy options n EUROCONTROL commissioned to validate proposals through simulation è ATFM Priorities Evaluation Study (2000-1)

4 © EUROCONTROL Agenda n Project Background n Assessment criteria n Proposed ATFM strategies u description u assessment u recommended next steps n Conclusion

5 © EUROCONTROL Assessment Criteria n Feasibility of technical implementation n Potential abuses & feasibility of verification n Implementation acceptability to stakeholders n Frequency or range of applicability n Benefits: delay reduction and split amongst target population n Impact on ATFM performance

6 © EUROCONTROL Global Solutions - Slot Allocation Prioritised by: Flight Type Least Consumer Cost Flight Distance Overview of Strategies CDM Procedures for Prioritisation of Particular Flights Integration of AO Tactical Priorities Selective Amelioration Airport Public Order Exceptions Burden Sharing Public Comment Proceedings

7 © EUROCONTROL Global Prioritisation Strategies n Current: First Planned First Served è all flights are equal n Proposed: Prioritisation by... u Flight Type - some types more time-critical u Consumer Cost - equity per passenger u Flight Distance - equity over days operation n Modified slot allocation algorithm to prioritise flights by category è Redistribute delays across flight categories

8 © EUROCONTROL Global Prioritisation Strategies (2) n Flight Type rejected u 75% of regulated flights in high-priority class è prioritisation ineffective u problems of verification / policing n Least Consumer Cost rejected u categorisation / validation more feasible è redistributes delay from larger to smaller aircraft u negative impact on hub operations

9 © EUROCONTROL n Results u equal-sized categories most effective u strength of prioritisation can be tuned with 5 equal categories; weight: 20% to prioritisation / 80% to FPFS è improved hub management n Recommended next steps u stakeholder consultation/analysis concerning strength of prioritisation u dynamic slot allocation algorithm Flight Distance

10 © EUROCONTROL Global Solutions - Slot Allocation Prioritised by: Flight Type Least Consumer Cost Flight Distance Overview of Strategies CDM Procedures for Prioritisation of Particular Flights Integration of AO Tactical Priorities Selective Amelioration Airport Public Order Exceptions Burden Sharing Public Comment Proceedings

11 © EUROCONTROL Integration of AO Tactical Priorities n Slot Swapping and Substitution on Cancellation u AO to decide on swaps between flights u limitiation: same regulations in same order n Modelled Operational Implementation u swap flights only of same AO u minimum improvement: 5 minutes u SIT1 A < CTOT B - taxi time - margin for swap

12 © EUROCONTROL Estimate Number of Slot Swaps Each flight may swap only once (random selection) 1 in 3 feasible swaps is required (random selection)

13 © EUROCONTROL Slot Swapping - Conclusions n Estimate 100 - 200 swaps per day è daily delay savings on critical flights of 1600 to 4000 minutes n No disbenefit to non-swapping operators n No systematic impact on bunching or overload n Recommended next steps u define procedure and rules u trial implementation

14 © EUROCONTROL Global Solutions - Slot Allocation Prioritised by: Flight Type Least Consumer Cost Flight Distance Overview of Strategies CDM Procedures for Prioritisation of Particular Flights Integration of AO Tactical Priorities Selective Amelioration Airport Public Order Exceptions Burden Sharing Public Comment Proceedings

15 © EUROCONTROL Selective Amelioration n AOs request amelioration of delayed flights that have become critical - e.g. u airport curfew u air-crew rostering u transfer passengers n Ad-hoc process exists today n Need to limit number of cases u agreed constraints? è quota system

16 © EUROCONTROL Selective Amelioration (2) n Modelled random selection among flights delayed by more than 30 minutes

17 © EUROCONTROL n Minimal impact on ATFM performance from amelioration of up to 200 or so flights? u further validation needed n Recommend limiting number of cases by quota system n Recommended next steps u monitor and analyse current live usage u stakeholder consultation on how to distribute quota across AOs u trial implementation Selective Amelioration - Conclusions

18 © EUROCONTROL Global Solutions - Slot Allocation Prioritised by: Flight Type Least Consumer Cost Flight Distance Overview of Strategies CDM Procedures for Prioritisation of Particular Flights Integration of AO Tactical Priorities Selective Amelioration Airport Public Order Exceptions Burden Sharing Public Comment Proceedings

19 © EUROCONTROL Airport Public Order Exceptions n Initial aim: when serious delays lead to risk of public order disturbances n Delegation of control from central (CFMU) to local (Airport) level u e.g. now: De-Icing Procedures è generalise: Chaotic Situation Management n If number of flights affected is small, use Selective Amelioration

20 © EUROCONTROL Airport Public Order Exceptions (Chaotic Situation Management) n Monitoring and reporting of use u to guard against abuse or overuse n Recommended next steps u trial implementations u put in place Letters of Agreement

21 © EUROCONTROL Global Solutions - Slot Allocation Prioritised by: Flight Type Least Consumer Cost Flight Distance Overview of Strategies CDM Procedures for Prioritisation of Particular Flights Integration of AO Tactical Priorities Selective Amelioration Airport Public Order Exceptions Burden Sharing Public Comment Proceedings

22 © EUROCONTROL Burden Sharing n Applicable when capacity shortfall expected u to avoid delays, must reduce demand u all make agreed proportional reduction u AOs to decide which specific flights to cancel n Currently, national ad-hoc frameworks for crisis management

23 © EUROCONTROL n Trade-off of demand cut and delay saved Burden Sharing

24 © EUROCONTROL Burden Sharing - Conclusions n Implement as fully structured collaborative process u strategic or pre-tactical n Recommended next steps u refine guidelines for demand reduction - especially among smaller operators u develop collaborative procedures u apply in trial cases

25 © EUROCONTROL Global Solutions - Slot Allocation Prioritised by: Flight Type Least Consumer Cost Flight Distance Overview of Strategies CDM Procedures for Prioritisation of Particular Flights Integration of AO Tactical Priorities Selective Amelioration Airport Public Order Exceptions Burden Sharing Public Comment Proceedings

26 © EUROCONTROL Public Comment Proceedings n Strategic planning to deal with large events u capacity enhancement u demand management and prioritisation n Transparent, consensus-based planning u EAG-OSG level n Recommended next steps u analysis of events to date u consultation on guidelines for applicable events u trial procedures in real cases

27 © EUROCONTROL Conclusion n All strategies apply to crises, several also to chronic congestion n None appear to reduce ATFM performance n Many formalise existing procedures n Some could provide incentives for good behaviour by AOs n Recommended next step for many is specification of procedures and live trial n Institutional and operational issues remain to be addressed


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