1. EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 1 Global Fire Emission Modelling for Atmospheric Composition and Land Cover Monitoring Johannes W. Kaiser, S. Serrar, R.J. Engelen, J.-J. Morcrette, A. Hollingsworth, J.-M. Gregoire, G.R. van der Werf

2. EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 2 Outline Biomass Burning in Global Environmental Monitoring Biomass Burning in Atmospheric Composition Monitoring: The Global GEMS Systems Summary

3. EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 3 Biomass Burning in Global Environmental Monitoring

4. EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 4 Significance for Atmospheric Composition: 2 Preliminary Examples CO2 mixing ratio analysis from poster 1MO2P-0072 aerosol optical depth analysis from poster 1MO2P-0082 SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES

5. EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 5 Significance for Land Monitoring Wildfires are an important sink mechanism for the terrestrial carbon pools in the global carbon cycle. wildfire emissions, typical global values: 1.5 – 4 Gt C / year fossil fuel emissions of Europe + North America: 3 Gt C / year Wildfire behaviour characterises land cover types with repeated fire events. typical fire repeat period typical fire intensity typical fire seasonality … Wildfires can change the land cover type reversibly tropical deforestation …

6. EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 6 A Global Fire Assimilation System should serve atmosphere and land monitoring. atmosphere monitoring Global Fire Assimilation System land monitoring pyro-changes in carbon stocks available fuel load injection heights fire emissions land cover type fire observations land cover characterisation land cover change [Kaiser et al. 2006]

7. EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 7 Biomass Burning in Atmospheric Composition Monitoring: The Global GEMS Systems

8. EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 8 Global Fire Activities in GEMS @ ECMWF fire emission from inventory GFEDv2 [van der Werf et al., ACP 2006] hot spot fire observations from satellite-borne MODIS available fuel load from CASA vegetation model no near-real time availability time resolution: 8 days / 1 month Can be used as dummy for future Global Fire Assimilation System in reanalyses. Fire Radiative Power from geostationary observations improved accuracy and time resolution no operational experience no global coverage

9. EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 9 Fire CO2 Emission on 20 Aug 2003 [g / m2 / day] (GFEDv2_8day, re-gridded to T159)

10. EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 10 CO2 Model Field with Fires @ 500hPa [ppm]

11. EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 11 Excess CO2 due to Fires @ 500hPa [ppm]

12. EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 12 without fire emissions with fire emissions assimi- lation of CO2 observa- tions free model run

13. EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 13 Variability of CO2 Model: Mauna Loa with fire emissions no fire emissions observations models corrected for bias & trend Fire emissions modelling improves interannual variability & seasonal variability of the modelled CO2 background. altitude of station [observations: public CMDL CCGG data]

14. EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 14 Aerosol and Reactive Gas Approach and Issues approach consistent: emission inventory GFEDv2 with time resolution of 1 month (currently) 8 days (soon) aerosol: (see poster 1MO2P-0082) Observations determine 1 parameter relatively well, i.e. AOT. But model currently distinguishes 11 aerosol types. Fire emissions help to determine the observed aerosol type. reactive gases: emissions in CTMs, not the ECMWF model

15. EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 15 Summary

16. EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 16 SUMMARY The global atmosphere and land monitoring systems in the European GMES initiative will need global Biomass Burning modelling in near-real time and consistent multi-year time series. We recommend to develop a Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) to serve the GMES requirements. The global GEMS system can use GFEDv2 as a work-around for its reanalysis products, and does so. We see wildfire emissions influencing CO2: interannual variability, seasonal cycle, and individual episodes aerosol: episodes, monthly averages The information from fire emission observation/modelling is complementary to the satellite observations of CO2 and aerosols.

17. EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 17 MORE INFORMATION www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/HALO www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS www.gmes-geoland.info j.kaiser@ecmwf.int This work has been funded by the European Commission through the FP6 projects HALO, GEMS, and GEOLAND. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS