1. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 1 GEMS Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data Anthony Hollingsworth ECMWF

2. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 2 MONDAY 15 December 2003 Presentations 13.30Tony Hollingsworth (ECMWF) Welcome and Overview of the GEMS project 13.55Peter Cox (UKMO)The global greenhouse gas sub-project 14.20Martin Schultz MPI-Met)The global reactive gas sub-project 14.45Olivier Boucher (LOA-Lille)The global Aerosol project 15.10Coffee 15.40Keith Edwards (ECMWF)Administrative aspects of the GEMS Integrated Project 16.05V-H Peuch (Meteo-France)The Regional Air-Quality project 16.30Adrian Simmons (ECMWF)The GEMS production systems, and retrospective analysis of the EOS-ENVISAT era 16.55H.Eskes (KNMI)Overall Validation of the GEMS system 17.20Discussion 18.00Buffet at ECMWF Discussion in teams

3. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 3 Tuesday 16 December 2003 WORK 09.00(Coffee will be available from 1000-1030) Discussions within the sub-projects to prepare the proposal. 12.30Lunch 13.30Plenary, with presentation / discussion of the plans of each of the sub-projects, followed by general discussion 16.00Close

4. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 4 Drivers of GMES requirements Policy Needs: Assessment, Validation of treaties Convention on Long-Range Transport of Air Pollutants Montreal Protocol UNFCCC- Kyoto Protocol / carbon trading …. Operational Needs Air quality forecasts Chemical Weather Forecasts Scientific Needs IPCC WMO / Global Atmospheric Watch World Climate Research Programme IGBP, GCOS, GTOS……

5. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 5 Late 2003: GMES Status / plans for Integrated Projects Integrated Projects (start 2004) GEOLAND MERSEA Integrated Projects (start 2005) Atmosphere Risks Water Resources Security Specific Support Action (start 2004) HALO: Harmonised Co-ordination of Atmosphere, Land Ocean IPs: HALO Partners: ECMWF, Atmosphere_IP, GEOLAND, MERSEA, Alcatel, Astrium

6. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 6 Expected content of December 2003 Call for Atmosphere Integrated Project Atmosphere Integrated Project should meet GMES needs for Atmosphere Dynamics and Composition Troposphere and Stratosphere Regional air quality GEMS Response: Atmosphere Integrated Project to Deliver, by end 2007, a validated operational system for assimilation /modelling of atmospheric composition Based on an innovative synthesis of existing scientific and operational capabilities Every sub-project has major innovations - 100% RTD

7. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 7 Additional variables and simplified chemistry in IFS 2002: Ozone, 2004: CO 2 2007: ~20 species/families Assimilate groups of trace variables in 4D-Var, one group per global sub-project Run the development system(s) at T159; partners can run assimilations remotely Fast access for partners to results (e.g. via a dedicated Geant Virtual Private Network) GEMS approach: Extend European capabilities by modelling trace constituents in the IFS &…. assimilating data on trace constituents in 4D-Var using the global system to support regional systems.

8. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 8 Real-time operational implementations will be required for Global reactive gases Global Aerosol Regional Air Quality Depending on data availability, the Greenhouse Gas assimilation may be run in slightly-delayed /very-delayed mode The Inversion stage of the Greenhouse gas sub-project requires calibrated flask data and will certainly run in delayed mode. From time to time (every 5 years) there will be a need to re-analyse the whole period of instrumental (satellite?) record, using the latest science and methodology. 2008-2012 is the commitment period for the Kyoto protocol Operational Continuation beyond 2007

9. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 9 GEMS Sub-projects 1.GLOBAL GREEHOUSE GASES: Monitor seasonal variations of non-reactive Greenhouse Gases such as CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O (+CO) 2.GLOBAL REACTIVE-GASES: Monitor ozone and its precursors, and sulphate aerosol and its precursors. 3.GLOBAL AEROSOL: Model and assimilate global aerosol information 4.GEMS REGIONAL AIR-QUALITY PROJECT 5.PRODUCTION SYSTEM: System Development and Integration, Reanalysis production and Data Infrastructure project 6.OVERALL SYSTEM VALIDATION PROJECT: Validate the pre-operational system through observational verification of retrospective analyses for the "EOS - ENVISAT" epoch ~1998-2006

10. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 10 Global Greenhouse Gases, Lead: UK Met Office InstitutePIccActivityCost model FC/AC /FCF UKMOPeter CoxModel/ Assimilation LMDA.ChedinRadiation Max-Planck, Jena M.HeimannDr.KnorrInversion/ Validation LSCEP.CiaisInversion/ Validation ECMWFA.HollingsworthA.Simmons M.Miller Radiation/ Assimilation

11. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 11 Global Reactive Gases Lead: Max-Planck Inst f. Met. InstitutePIccActivityCost model FC /AC /FCF Max-Planck Hamburg Guy BrasseurM.SchultzModel Mozart CTM KNMIGerbrand KomenHenk EskesAssimilation ECMWFA.HollingsworthA.Simmons M.Miller Model Assimilation Mace Head (NUI Galway) S.G.JenningsValidation Nat. Hellenic Res. Fndn (NHRF) C.ZerefosValidation DWDP.WinklerH.BerresheimValidation

12. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 12 Global Aerosol Lead: LOA_Lille InstitutePIccActivityCost model FC/AC /FCF LOA_ Lille O.BoucherRadiation Modelling Max Planck Hamburg H.FeichterModelling ECMWFA.HollingsworthA.Simmons M.Miller Assimilation Modelling UKMOP.CoxJ.HaymanValidation Mace Head (NUI Galway) S.G.JenningsC.ODowdValidation

13. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 13 Regional Air Quality Lead Meteo-France InstitutePIccActivityCost model FC / AC /FCF Meteo-FranceV-H.PeuchAssim. /Model Validation U.KoelnH.Elbern B. Met Inst.A.Quinet Norwegian Met Inst. A.EliassenL.Tarrason Finnish Met Inst P.TaalasH.Jarvinen Danish Met Inst. Leif Laursen CNR / ISAC, Bologna F.Tampieri (NHRF)C.ZerefosD.Balis

14. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 14 Production System, Data Infrastructure, Retrospective Analysis, Lead ECMWF InstitutePIccActivityCost model FC / AC / FCF ECMWFA.HollingsworthA.Simmons M.Miller Data management Develop Production system Retrospective analysis AC

15. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 15 Overall System Validation Lead KNMI InstitutePIccActivity Cost model FC / AC / FCF All partners Check-out of pre-operational system

16. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 16 Geographical distribution of annual effort by country (incl.ECMWF) Geographical distribution of annual Science effort by project Project ECM WF FDUKItFinNDKBNLIRL Gree ce GHG 11.70.72.5 GRG 1.5 1.70000000.70.30.5 A/sol 0.51.50.5 RAQ 01.5100.7 00.40.5 Validation 000.900.3 0 Sub-totals on science 34.74.8311111111 Infrastructure annual effort including production system and retrospective analysis System & production 600000000000 Summary of geographical distribution of overall annual effort Overall totals 94.74.8311111111 Grand total 29.5

17. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 17 Duration Current (very safe) cost estimate gives a duration of 3 years. If the estimate is too cautious, the flexibility may enable a prolongation of the project into 2008 However, some flexibility is needed to include partner from the Accession countries partner from an SME, working e.g. on outreach Please let me have your cost estimates as soon as possible

18. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 18 List of potential Associated Institutes / Projects InstituteContact pointsweb-site DLRU.Schumann M.Dameris M.Bittner www.dlr.de/ipa/ ESA/ESRINO.Arinowww.esa.int EUMETSATD.Williamswww.eumetsat.de CHIMERER.Vautardwww.euler.polytechnique.fr/chimere MOZAICJ-P.Cammaswww.aero.obs-mip.fr/mozaic NDSC Network for Detection of Stratospheric Change S.Bekkiwww.ndsc.ncep.noaa.gov SRONI. Aben

19. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 19 DUE Project: GlobAER Input: Multi-sensor satellite data fusion ATSR, MERIS, SeaWiFS, MSG, MODIS, GOES, AVHRR Output: Comparable, Consistent, Transparent and Complete! Direct retrieval from satellite observations Model-derived from assimilation of TOA radiances Status: User Requirements Document currently under review. Invitation to tender: To be issued in Jan 2004 Budget: Max. 1 000 000 Jun 2004 Apr 2005 Mar 2005 Continue? Design and Build Prot o Val Service Jan 2006 Full Validation Assimilation and intercomp-arison May 2006 Users Atmospheric modelling community (ECMWF, MeteoFrance, UKMO, DKRZ, etc) Transboundary pollution monitoring (EMEP) Regional air quality monitoring agencies (Athens, Lombardia, Flanders, etc) Applications Climate change and atmospheric chemistry Particulate emission sources and dynamics Background for regional air quality monitoring Atmospheric correction of optical satellite data Products/Activities Global aerosol climatology (1995 - 2005) Land and Ocean Multi-resolution Size distribution: PM 10, PM 2.5 Speciation: soot, mineral, marine, etc. Assimilation into models and intercomparison exercise DUE Project: GlobAER

20. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 20 SUGGESTED SCHEDULE FOR PROPOSAL PREPARATION Jan 17First drafts of the chapters circulated for general comment. Feb 20Second, near-final, draft of the GEMS proposal circulated for comment, plus first draft of the Consortium Agreement March 5Proposal finalised. March 12Proposal Submitted

21. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 21 END thank you for your attention!

22. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 22 CO 2 assimilation -Troposphere CO 2 tropospheric columns are being assimilated from AIRS infrared observations. Monthly mean distribution for May 2003 is shown on the left, and the upper boundary for the error estimate is shown on the right.

23. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 23 CO2 assimilation - Stratosphere First analysis of stratospheric CO 2 shows Brewer- Dobson type of circulation. Variability is also much smaller than in troposphere.

24. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 24 Table 10 GEMS Satellite Data Utilisation GEMS SubProject Retriev als Radiance s Greenhouse gases MissionInstrumentsy EMVISATSCIAMACHY EOS - AQUAAIRS y EOS-AURAOMIy METOP-1IASI y NPPCrIS y OCO y

25. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 25 Global reactive gases MissionInstruments RetrievalsRadiances ENVISAT SCIAMACHY, GOMOS y MIPAS y NOAA_16SBUV-2y ERS-2GOMEy MSGSEVIRI y EOS - AQUAAIRS y EOS-AURAOMI, HIRDLSy METOP-1IASI y NPPCrIS y OCO y Meteor-3, ADEOS_2 TOMSy

26. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 26 Global Aerosol MissionInstruments Retrievals ENVISATMERISy METEORSAGEy TERRAMODISy AQUAMODISy ADEOS-2OCTSy AURAHIRDLSy SEAWIFS y

27. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 27 DUE Project: GlobAER Input: Multi-sensor satellite data fusion ATSR, MERIS, SeaWiFS, MSG, MODIS, GOES, AVHRR Output: Comparable, Consistent, Transparent and Complete! Direct retrieval from satellite observations Model-derived from assimilation of TOA radiances Status: User Requirements Document currently under review. Invitation to tender: To be issued in Jan 2004 Budget: Max. 1 000 000 Jun 2004 Apr 2005 Mar 2005 Continue? Design and Build Prot o Val Service Jan 2006 Full Validation Assimilation and intercomp-arison May 2006 Input: Multi-sensor satellite data fusion ATSR, MERIS, SeaWiFS, MSG, MODIS, GOES, AVHRR Output: Comparable, Consistent, Transparent and Complete! Direct retrieval from satellite observations Model-derived from assimilation of TOA radiances Status: User Requirements Document currently under review. Invitation to tender: To be issued in Jan 2004 Budget: Max. 1 000 000 Jun 2004 Apr 2005 Mar 2005 Continue? Design and Build Prot o Val Service Jan 2006 Full Validation Assimilation and intercomp-arison May 2006 DUE Project: GlobAER

28. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 28 Table 7b: Analysis of Infrastructure annual effort including production system and retrospective analysis System & production 600000000000 Table 7c:Summary of geographical distribution of overall annual effort Overall totals94.74.8311111111 Grand total29.5