1. Understanding and reducing global earthquake vulnerability Robin Spence Emeritus Professor of Architectural Engineering, Cambridge University Director, Cambridge Architectural Research Ltd Outline:  Causes of earthquake losses – how much do we understand them?  Improving earthquake loss modelling  Strategies for risk reduction

2. Earthquake losses depend on magnitude, location and frequency of large earthquakes Locations and magnitudes of earthquakes of Mw>6.5 over 30 years

3. Earthquakes losses also depend on location of settlements – attracted to fault zones Thrust faulting leads to the creation of water storage in arid regions, and accounts for the development of human settlements directly alongside fault systems (eg Bam - shown, Tabas, Tehran in Iran). Also along the mountain margins in India, China? 3 WCCE Conference, Istanbul, June 22-24, 2009

4. Earthquake losses depend on building vulnerability Bhuj, India, 2001: 14,000 deaths rubble and adobe masonry Bam, Iran, 2003: 32,000 deaths adobe with vaulted roofs traditional forms of construction often have extreme vulnerability to ground shaking

5. Earthquake losses depend on building vulnerability In modern forms of construction requirements for earthquake resistance are frequently ignored

6. Earthquake losses: secondary hazards Landslides, tsunamis and fire following can be major sources of loss

7. Casualties in earthquakes: the importance of human behaviour Pre-event preparatory behaviour Action during the earthquake Post-event rescue and subsequent treatment

8. Estimating earthquake risk Risk modelling can:  Help urban or national authorities plan upgrading strategies for public buildings  Help private owners of buildings identify and modify or avoid high-risk premises  Help the insurance industry model its likely losses and set premium rates  Help improve codes of practice for new buildings  Help urban authorities identify zones for future expansion Study for British Council by CAR Ltd

9. Loss estimation: hazards to consider A taxonomy of earthquake hazards

10. Earthquake Risk Modelling: Typical Structure Source Definition 1101001000 Distance (km) PGA (g) 5 6 7 8 Event RatesAttenuation Vulnerability Event Rate Loss 1.0001 $ 2.0002 $ 3.0001 $ Event Loss TableEP Curve Source: Risk Management Solutions Inc.

11. Vulnerability estimation: observed vulnerability After Coburn and Spence, 1993 Limitations of observed vulnerability: Can’t use for (eg) newer buildings for which no damage data exists Single parameter of ground motion cannot capture relationship between ground motion, subsoil and structural behaviour Assessment of earthquake ground shaking depends of building damage

12. Vulnerability estimation: calculated vulnerability Limitations of calculated vulnerability: Models of building assumed do not adequately represent real structural form Models of structural behaviour assumed unlike real behaviour of the worst buildings Extension of single building model to large populations of buildings

13. Earthquakes: modelling human casualties

14. Risk Modelling: How can we do better ?  Improve understanding of active faults and global seismicity  Collect and organise impact data post event  Improve understanding of “at risk” buildings and infrastructure  Improve global collaboration  Improve understanding of uncertainty Munich Re’s Hazard Globe, 2009

15. Improving post-earthquake reconnaissance methods, using remote sensing Pre-Earthquake Satellite ImagePost-Earthquake Satellite ImageField Work Photograph – 6 months after  EEFIT has been active in data collection since 1982 with increasing sophistication  Damage Case-Study: YingXiu Township, Wenchuan earthquake 15 WCCE Conference, Istanbul, June 22-24, 2009

16. FREE web-accessible source of building typology/damage data on >1m buildings from55 earthquakes since the 1960s. Plus casualty data Use to create vulnerability curves www.ceqid.org 16 WCCE Conference, Istanbul, June 22-24, 2009 Archiving earthquake consequence data

17. Understanding global exposures: application of remote sensing and “mass observation” Unsupervised segmentation using Gabor filters and Self Organising Maps (SOM) to segment image (urban area) into clusters where building type distribution is similar. Selection of sampling area A B A: Google Street View B: “Mass observation” (example from NASA’s moon crater mapping project)

18. Earthquake risk reduction: six elements of a strategy 1.Improving codes of practice for design of new buildings 2.Improving building control 3.Building for Safety programmes for non-engineered buildings 4.Strengthening programmes for high-risk buildings 5.Promoting earthquake insurance 6.Guiding future urban development

19. 1. Improving building codes After SEAOC, 2000 Performance- based codes are now widely specified in earthquake-risk countries

20. 2. Improving building control Creation of “building supervision” firms Registration of contractors Large buildings to have a site engineer Builder responsible for 20 years Key elements of new system proposed in Turkey:

21. 3. Building for Safety Programmes Improved construction techniques based on traditional technologies can considerably improve earthquake resistance, and are an effective low cost way of upgrading rural construction Yemen, 1982 Ecuador, 1987 Training programmes for informal-sector builders

22. 4. Strengthening existing buildings: assessing and upgrading existing school buildings in Italy After the 2002 Molise earthquake, in which 26 schoolchildren died, funds were made available for evaluations of school buildings. The evaluation follows a 4-stage process; desk study, rapid visual screening, and simplified mechanical analysis are used to identify the highest risk schools before a full structural investigation is done. The evaluation programme is currently in progress, and has revealed serious deficiencies: for example, of 546 schools assessed in Latium Region 136 had a capacity/demand ration less than 0.2 Retrofitting costs will be found by the regions and are estimated at around 40% of the cost of rebuilding

23. Typical urban apartment block and strengthening scheme Shear wall strengthening, Bolu, 2000 4.Strengthening existing buildings RC apartment buildings in Turkey

24. 4.Strengthening existing buildings: old masonry buildings in Europe Damage experience and structural modifications following the Umbria- Marche earthquake in Italy, 1997 Cost benefit studies in Portugal showed that adding ties is cheap and highly cost effective

25. 5. Earthquake insurance Insurance cover of earthquake risks is desirable because: insurance can help control building standards insurance rates can be used to encourage upgrading insurance can make available the funds needed for repair and rebuilding, and manage the repair and recovery process Earthquake insurance: common problems of implementation Many insurers do not offer it Banks and loan agencies do not require it Too expensive in relation to perceived risk of insured damage Government expected to help the uninsured Examples In many high risk regions eg Southern California, Japan, take-up of insurance is quite low National schemes for compensating owners for earthquake damage are in place in several countries, eg Italy, France, Greece Turkey has recently introduced a compulsory insurance scheme to replace such as scheme. – other such schemes are planned

26. 6. Guiding urban development Many large and growing cities lie close to active faults which have been affected by destructive earthquakes in the past. In many cases the responsible fault is not known. New forensic techniques developed at the Bullard Lab will enable the recently active faults to be identified. This knowledge could have a profound effect on urban development over the next 20 years The Cambridge China project joins the Depts of Earth Sciences and Architecture at Cambridge with Chinese Partner institutions to develop this potential.

27. Thank you