1. Redução da vulnerabilidade e mitigação do risco sísmico. Aplicação à Área Metropolitana de Lisboa Alfredo Campos Costa e Maria Luísa Sousa Workshop projecto LESSLOSS – SP10 – Earthquake disaster scenario prediction and loss modelling for urban areas Curso de formação em modelação de perdas em consequência de sismos, técnicas para a redução da vulnerabilidade e risco sísmico LNEC, 25 de Maio de 2006

2. 4.Conclusions Index 1.Choice of case study area 2.Vulnerability and inventory definition 3.Loss modelling for the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon - MAL 3.1 Reference situation 3.2 After mitigation

3. 4.Conclusions Index 1.Choice of case study area 2.Vulnerability and inventory definition 3.Loss modelling for the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon - MAL 3.1 Reference situation 3.2 After mitigation

4. Choice of case study area Metropolitan Area of Lisbon - MAL 3 x 10 6 inhabitants 1755 eq M8.75 1909 eq M  6.9

5. Choice of case study area Metropolitan Area of Lisbon - MAL Global Statistics 2001 Parishes277 (7%) Geotechnical profiles37 Number of smallest geographic divisions: parishes+ geotechnical profiles 405 Building classes49 Residential buildings477 170 (16%) Dwellings1 389 236 (29%) Population2 841 067 (29%) 2001 GDP  5510 6 € ( 47%) 90 km 96 km

6. Choice of mitigation options MAL  Main causes of losses Human losses: severe and complete damage in most masonry buildings Economic losses: damages on RC buildings with the highest exposure in the region (>1960)  Mitigation actions Upgrading most masonry buildings Upgrading of RC buildings >1960 mainly those located in soils correspondent of the higher exposure of buildings  Methodology Develop new capacity and fragility curves; consider a possible range of modification techniques. update LNECloss tool

7. 4.Conclusions Index 1.Choice of case study area 2.Vulnerability and inventory definition 3.Loss modelling for the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon - MAL 3.1 Reference situation 3.2 After mitigation

8. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

9. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Masonry old buildings (urban) Traditional construction (rural) Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

10. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Masonry old buildings (urban)

11. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Masonry old buildings (urban) Before 1755 Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

12. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Masonry old buildings (urban) Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

13. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Masonry old buildings (urban) “Pombalinos” Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

14. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Masonry old buildings (urban) Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

15. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Masonry old buildings (urban) “Gaioleiros” Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

16. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Masonry old buildings (urban) Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

17. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Masonry old buildings (urban) Unreinforced brick with RC floors “Placa” Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

18. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Masonry old buildings (urban) Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

19. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Masonry old buildings (urban) Confined masonry Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

20. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Masonry old buildings (urban) Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

21. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Masonry old buildings (urban) Without ERD Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

22. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Masonry old buildings (urban) Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

23. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Masonry old buildings (urban) After RSCCS code and before RSA code Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

24. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Masonry old buildings (urban) Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

25. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Masonry old buildings (urban) After RSA code Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

26. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Masonry old buildings (urban) Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

27. Vulnerability and inventory definition Geographic distribution of exposure MAL

28. Vulnerability and inventory definition 7 vulnerability classes x 7 nº floors Vulnerability classes Adobe + rubble stone + others Masonry before 1960 Masonry 1961-85 Masonry 1986-01 RC before 1960 RC 1961-85 RC 1986-01 49 7 315

29. Vulnerability and inventory definition Vulnerability characterization 49 typologies

30. Vulnerability and inventory definition Soil classification Ground type Stratigraphic profilev s [m/s] ARock and hard soil> 350 BIntermediate soil200-350 CSoft soil< 200 MAL 37 3

31. Vulnerability and inventory definition Exposure analysis MAL

32. Vulnerability and inventory definition Exposure analysis MAL

33. Vulnerability and inventory definition Exposure analysis MAL

34. 4.Conclusions Index 1.Choice of case study area 2.Vulnerability and inventory definition 3.Loss modelling for the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon - MAL 3.1 Reference situation 3.2 After mitigation

35. Loss Modelling for MAL Modelling earthquake ground motion North site  R  Surface WW O  r LL y h OSOS x z (x,y) Rhipo SA [cm/s^2]

36.  Earthquake scenario  modal values derived from PSHA disaggregation Loss Modelling for MAL Modelling earthquake scenario Contrib. [‰] 50 years RP Contrib. [‰ ] 475 years RP

37. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 0510152025 Sd [cm] Sa [g] Site effects Soil dynamic amplification

38. Tagus River PGA for bedrock Loss Modelling for MAL Modelling earthquake scenario 475 years RP scenario PGA considering soil columns

39. Loss Modelling for MAL Modelling Building vuln. and damage evaluation Ay = Cs  /  Dy = Ay Te 2 / (2) 2 Capacity curve  Yield capacity (Dy, Ay)  Ultimate capacity Au = Ay Du =  Dy Fragility curve  Drift ratio  d

41. 49 typologies Loss Modelling for MAL Modelling Building vuln. and damage evaluation

42. Criteria derived from losses for the reference situation and 475 RP Ground type Adobe + rubble stone Masonry  1960 Masonry 1961-85 Masonry 1986-01 RC  1960 RC 1961-85 RC 1986-01 Hard Interm. Soft Loss Modelling for MAL Modelling strengthening interventions

43. # Streng.MasonryRC Improvement of force capacity Improvement of ductile capacity. dd 1 -25% 2 -50%25% 3 -75%25% 4 75% 25% 5 -25%50% 6 -50% 7 -75%50% 8 75% 50% 9 -25%75% 10 -50%75% 11 -75% 12 75% Loss Modelling for MAL Modelling strengthening interventions

44. Loss Modelling for MAL Modelling strengthening interventions

45. Loss Modelling for MAL Loss estimates for modified city  Buildings (Masonry + RC) Completely damaged for the reference situation and for the 12 intervention strategies

46. Loss Modelling for MAL Loss estimates for modified city  Population killed (inhabitants of Masonry and RC buildings) for the reference situation and for the 12 intervention strategies

47. Severely damaged buildings Mitigation Reference Loss Modelling for MAL Loss estimates for modified city  Modified urban region (Str.#8 for masonry and Str. #12 for RC)

48. Loss Modelling for MAL Loss estimates for existing city  Disaggregation of economic losses, by damage state, for the 475 return period scenario

49. Completely damaged buildings Mitigation Reference Loss Modelling for MAL Loss estimates for modified city  Modified urban region (Str.#8 for masonry and Str. #12 for RC)

50. Killed population Mitigation Reference Loss Modelling for MAL Loss estimates for modified city  Modified urban region (Str.#8 for masonry and Str. #12 for RC) kilometers

51. Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis Loss scenarios Loss modelling Loss modelling for MAL Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis

52.  Earthquake scenario based on PSHA disaggregation Loss Modelling for MAL Modelling earthquake scenario

53. Loss Modelling for MAL Loss estimates for modified city  Economic mitigation risk curves Mitigation = E(L ref |h) –E(L mitig |h)

54. Loss Modelling for MAL Loss estimates for modified city  Human mitigation risk curves Mitigation = E(L ref |h) –E(L mitig |h)

55. Loss Modelling for MAL Loss estimates for modified city  Average economic mitigation for an exposure period of 50 years E(L)= E(L|H)f(h)dh

56. Loss Modelling for MAL Loss estimates for modified city  Average human mitigation for an exposure period of 50 years E(L)= E(L|H)f(h)dh

57. 4.Conclusions Index 1.Choice of case study area 2.Vulnerability and inventory definition 3.Loss modelling for the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon - MAL 3.1 Reference situation 3.2 After mitigation

58. Conclusions MAL case study Target areaMetropolitan Area of Lisbon Number of buildings 477,170 Approx. Population 3,000,000 Magnitude 7.9 Location of earthquakeMarques of Pombal Thrust Fault Distance from target area (Offshore) Depth  10 km Approx. return period 500 Range of macroseismic intensity in the target area VII-IX (MMI)

59.  Improve ductile capacity and force capacity for most masonry buildings and for RC buildings constructed after 1st seismic code Conclusions Proposed Mitigation Action

60. 1.Some masonry classes being high vulnerable (e.g. Adobe + rubble stone) cause significant human losses 2.Less severe physical damages plays an important relative contribution to economic losses, mainly in RC buildings Conclusions Losses are a consequence of:

61. Conclusions Risk mitigation for earthquake in MAL Target areaMetropolitan Area of Lisbon Proposed Mitigation Action Improve ductile capacity and force capacity for most masonry buildings and for RC buildings constructed after seismic code % of buildings Severely damaged 10.1% % of buildings Completely damaged 3.9% % of buildings Completely damaged WITH mitigation 0.8% - 2.4% No. and % of population killed WITH mitigation 79 (0.0028%) – 166 (0.0058%) No. and % of population killed (night) 269 (0.0095%) % of buildings Severely damaged WITH mitigation 3.5% - 7.3%

62. Impact indicator Before mitigation After Mitigation Mitigation benefits Buildings Severely damaged 48 580 (10.1%*) 16 901 (3.5%) till 34 866 (7.3%) 28% till 65% Buildings Completely damaged 18 660 (3.9%) 4 032 (0.8%) till 11 489 (2.4%) 38% till 78% Population killed 269 (0.0095%) 79 (0.0028%) till 166 (0.0058%) 38% till 71% *The numbers indicated in brackets represent the percentage of losses relatively to total MAL buildings Conclusions Impact of the purposed mitigation actions Benefits = [E(L ref |h) –E(L mitig |h)]/ E(L ref |h)