Presentation on theme: "Working Group on Nowcasting Research Report"— Presentation transcript:
1 Working Group on Nowcasting Research Report Paul JoeWWRP JSC Feb 2011 Geneva
2 Outline CAS XV/Gaps Committee Symposia Advancing the Science - FDP/RDP’sCapacity BuildingRelated ProjectsSpecialty MeetingsNew InitiativesLake VictoriaSouth East AsiaINCA – CERegional Training Center for Nowcasting (Brazil)
3 Gaps and CAS XV Decisions “Advise, promote, advance, publish, convene, capacity build”Advancing the ScienceExpanding the accuracy, precision, predictability/blending, heuristic, data assimilation and high resolution modelsApplications: Convective weather/initiation, multi-element, winter, complex terrain, hydrology, aviationObservational science, measurement errors for nowcasting (in situ, remote sensing – radar QC and QPE),Understanding (conceptual models; complex terrain, etc)Hydrology Links - MAP-D Phase (coupling) and INCA-CE FDP?Integrated Nowcasting: Satellite rainfall and nowcasting, lightning nowcasting (particularly related to developing countries),Forecast systems: decision making and system design in the nowcast process; links to PWS and operations, system design, seamless (links to aviation, hydrology, etc)OPERA Radar Data Exchange (Nowcasting Requirements)Technology and knowledge demonstration
4 Committee MembershipTtom Keenan Steve Goodman Thomas Haiden Ted Nakazawa Augusto Pereira Paul JoeSlobodan Nickovic Alan Seed Jenny Sun Marianne Koenig Jian Jie Wang Peter Li Jim Wilson(a)
5 Convene Nowcasting Symposia WSN05 Toulouse, France, Meteo-France, Stephane SenesiWSN09 Environment Canada, Whistler, BC, George Isaac/Paul JoeQPE/QPF 3, Nanjing, China, Oct 2010, Brown/LuWSN12 Rio de Janiero, INPE/USP, Augusto Pereira August 2012
6 Promote, Advance, Capacity Build FDP / RDP’s Initiatives SydneyTo demonstrate the capability of modern forecast systems and to quantify the associated benefits in the delivery of very short term weather forecastsMAP DMesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region entire forecasting chain ranging from limited-area ensemble forecasting, high-resolution atmospheric modelling (km-scale), hydrological modelling, and nowcasting to decision making by the end users, i.e., an end-to-end forecasting systemImplement advanced high impact weather and precipitation nowcast systems providing an enhance weather service for B08 with demonstration of impactBeijing 2008Capacity Building Workshop - early 2012Initiative to drive journal publications.
7 2010 Nowcasting Initiatives Shanghai World EXPO 2010 Nowcasting Service Demonstration Project (WENS)In the context of the multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWS), to demonstrate how nowcasting applications can enhance short-range forecasts of high-impact weather using the opportunity afforded by the World EXPO 2010SNOW-V10RDPFocus is to improve our ability to produce short term or Nowcasts (within 6h) of high impact winter weather over complex terrain in association with the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games.Sochi2014 RDP/FDP ?WENS Capacity Building Nov 2011SNOW-V10 Final Seminar 2012?
8 Warm start reduces the cross-over point in blended systems! B08: Too low to be useful for “call to action” decisionsBenjamin et al, WSN09
9 Predictability is a function of scale! Alan Seed
10 Capacity Building Workshops Sydney 2000AustraliaBrazilia, Brazil 2003Palm Cove, 2006Asia-Pacific RegionPretoria, 2005South African Weather Service
11 Other Related Projects Joint Nowcasting, Applications and Service (JONAS)CBS/PWSWWRP co-chairTest BedsServiceCommission of Instruments, Methods and ObservationsRadar Quality Control and Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Inter-comparison Project14-15 April 2011, ExeterRQQI pronounced RickeyWENSNon-QC QCPerfect Radar
12 Forecast Systems Science, Process, Production and Service Forecasting Systems and End User Requirements-Definition of outputs and functionality nowcasting short-medium term hydrology advanced user needs and capacity building;Requirements for Forecast Process and Decision Support for Forecasts and warnings Using Guidance and Observations, NWP, EPS Use, MOS Direct Model output Conceptual models Integration of Decision support in meteorological Process Visualisation Verification Training with emphasis on process use of applications and systemsMan Machine Mix Issues- Optimising Role of human in forecast process and potential of NWP/Automation Approaches to Forecast System development (manual, matrix, object grid etc) digital forecast databases, user interaction etcForecast Sub-Systems and Applications Automatic Text generation Graphical product Dissemination and communication techniquesPotential contributors to the meeting should be decided upon by CAS and CBS.In principle agreement was obtained at the 8th WWRP SSC (2005) to conduct a technical forum of invited experts to facilitate the development of a position paper on Forecasting Systems.Little progress, priority and fundingHow to progress this?
13 JONAS Mission CBS/PWS + WWRP Increase the capacity of NMHS’s to deliver reliable nowcasts to enable informed decision-making in mitigating the effects of high impact weather and weather-related disasters.Links for legacy of WGNR
14 Specialty Meetings Closing the Gap /Advancing the Science Mesoscale-Nowcasting Working Group Specialty MeetingMeeting approvedBoulder, ColoradoDates 2011 TBDJenny Sun and Dale BarkerHigh Resolution, Spin up, Parameterizations, Data Assimilation2nd Heuristic NowcastingMeeting approved by WGNRMontreal, CanadaDates TBD 2012Alan Seed and Isztar ZawadzkiProbabilistic/Ensemble NowcastingBlendingPhase and Intensity
15 Lake Victoria Project Fisherman Deaths (5000 deaths/yr) Executive Council approves recomendation to develop research projectBasin dynamicsGeneration of HIWHow to save livesDr. Samwei Marigi/Dr. Dave ParsonsFisherman have no radios, dissemination an major issue -> cell phonesNeed for Conceptual ModelData SparseOption 1:SERVIROption 2Radar deployment to demonstrate benefits (forecast skill and user benefits)Related ProjectsSevere Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP) in implementation phaseMobile Weather Alert (MWA) PilotMany more… (project overload)Radar status unclear (Uganda, Tazania)Severe weather Service GapsKnowledgeObservationUnderstanding (Nocturnal thunderstormsTechnology (Lake surface temperature; CASA, OTG)Piggy back on SWFDP (later than sooner)JONAS or WWRP (WGNR, WGMW, SERA) to fill understanding gap firstExpert Team Visit requiredFishermanDeaths (5000 deaths/yr)Warning Service?
16 Lake Victoria Events Samwei Marigi In May 1996, a passenger ferry M.V. Bukoba capsized while on its way to Mwanza in Tanzania killing around 800 peopleMV Kabelega sunk on 8th May 2005 and though no life was lost, consumer produce in the tune of 800 tons was lost.Grounding of M.V. Thor at Ghana island on 24th March 2006 loaded with 300,000 litres of petroleum productsCapsizement and sinking of M. V. Nyamageni on 21st April 2006In 22nd July 2010.Passenger boat capsized on Ugandan side of the lake and 50 people are feared dead. Survivors tale of strong waves that hit the vessel, shattering it into pieces.200,000 fisherman and 5000 deaths per yearSamwei Marigi
17 Lightning due to thunderstorms in weak forcing situations (Lake Breeze) DaytimeNocturnalAlbrecht, Goodman
19 Mobile Weather Alert Project Objective:Utilise mobile phone technology to develop a sustainable warning service that reduces the vulnerability of communities in the Lake Victoria Region to weather hazards.Tom ButcherMobile Weather Alert: Community weather information via mobile technology
20 Key Outcomes Tom Butcher (1)Integrated Observations(2)Severe Weather Forecasting(3) Communication via mobile phone(4)Stakeholder Engagement(5) Socio-economic benefits analysisDrawing upon Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project and other initiatives, clearly defined processes for the delivery of pilot warnings and forecasts established and implemented.Q: Any existing “call to action” warning service?Q: Knowledge of localize severe weather? Technology? Radar?Need to assess capabilities, service, knowledge, modes of collaboration!Tom ButcherMobile Weather Alert: Community weather information via mobile technology
21 Need feedback. KMD waiting for WMO/WWRP response DiscussionCASA:Off The GridRadar (UPR)“solar”Low CostLow infrastructureLow Maintenance ???WGNR providing support to the MWA to demonstrate how/which satellite products could be used (already EUMETSAT training done)Need to assess situation on options (Sat-Lightning demonstration; Understanding field/forecast project).Piggyback and extend on SWFDP and MWA projects; WWRP join next science/planning meeting?Note – many projects in the area!Sandra Cruz-Pol, UPRNeed feedback. KMD waiting for WMO/WWRP response
22 South East AsiaContact by staff member of VHMS (HP Lam) to conduct a FDP in VietnamWeather Radar Modernization/Phone discussionsFinnish Met Institute is providing aid to VietnamSWFDP in formulation stageNWG piggyback and fill gap of SWFDP (0-12)MWG piggyback and fill gap of SWFDP (6-12)Many unknownsculture gap,technology gapService gapknowledge gapsJONAS ActivityExpert Team VisitCairns, 2007ExistingProposed
23 > 100 Thunderstorm Days > 100 days in all regions of VietnamNCHMF – no tools for nowcasting (TITAN/TIFS)
26 Suggestion for Next Steps FMI did a good review and assess about current status of VHMS nowcasting systemFMI is going to do some training courses of radar using and interpreting in 2011What should be done next?More training with real events of Vietnam after modernization project (when radars, AWS, automatic raingauge and NWP products… are available)Improve nowcasting system in Vietnam from National to Regional and even Provincial levels by setting up a easy-to-use system.Radar data sharing between neighbour countries.CBS/PWS initiating a SWFDP in this areaJoint SWFDP/WWRP with Nowcasting component under JONAS umbrella?Need to assess the warning, knowledge, technology, etc
27 INCA -CEExplore possibility to be WWRP FDP?Yong Wang
28 Brazil: RTC-N/Test Bed Average of 20 floods per year in Sao Paolo deathsSerrana Jan 2011
29 Regional Training Centre - Nowcasting Request made several years ago (Augusto Pereira/USP)Envision an advance course/post basic training on nowcasting - severe weather, urban, hydrologyHoused at U of Sao PaoloClassrooms, radar facilitiesTarget – South AmericaInvite “S2K/B08” systems and expertsOpportunity: FDP or Test Bed for nowcasting systems ?? – focus on urban, hydrology HIWDetailed project concept and implementation plan being prepared.
30 RTC-N -> Nowcasting (Verification, SERA) Test Bed Radar ModernizationSupport by Ministry of Science and Technology. Interested in FDP/Testbed in Rio de Janiero and Sao Paolo. Pilot FDP using CARDS. Visit Canada in March.RTC-N -> Nowcasting (Verification, SERA) Test BedFeedback from JSC?
31 Discussion Forecast Systems Workshop Lake Victoria South East Asia South America Regional Training Centre – Nowcasting / FDP / Testbed
33 Nowcasts leads to a “call to action” Met. InformationVSRF (Anal+NWP) >cautionNowcast (Anal) >warningSRF(NWP) >OutlookCancel warningLocal GovernmentAction for disaster preventionAction for recoveryReady to take actionStand byBack to normal (recovery)CitizenKeep in mindpreparationevacuation1-2 days before3-6 hours before1 hour beforeIs the skill of our forecast fulfilling their needs?disaster (Flood/Landslide)Precip. IntensityCourtesy, Shingo Yamada JMA
34 Mandate of WG WWRP Strategic Plan AdvisePromote NowcastingAdvance the SciencePublish and ConveneCapacity Build and Technology Transfer
35 Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System Temperature Perturbation, Winds, 35 dBZ Echo NowcastJenny Sun
36 HRRR reflectivity verification Skill vs. forecast length Impact of Radar Data on NWPHRRR reflectivity verificationSkill vs. forecast lengthAll HRRR forecastsRadarCSINo RadarForecastLengthThe HRRR is a 3-km resolution, hourly updated, cloud-resolving atmospheric model, initialized by DFI-fields from the 13km radar-enhanced Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) run at NOAA/ESRL/GSD. (soon to be initialized similarly by the 13km radar-assimilating30 dBZ reflectivityon HRRR 3-km gridVerification period23 June – 25 Aug 2008Weygandt et alWSN09WSN09 Evaluation of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): an hourly updated convection resolving model utilizing radar reflectivity assimilation from the RUC/RR Steve Weygandt, Stan Benjamin, Tanya Smirnova, Curtis Alexander, Doug Koch, John Brown, Kevin Brundage, Barry Schwartz, Ming Hu, Susan Sahm, Brian Jamison NOAA ESRL
37 Impact of Radar Data on NWP ECMWF 1d+4dVAR12h Window T511 L6020May-20 June 2005Hourly RR 4 km NCEP gridRain-1d VAR, moisture increments vertically integratedfor pseudo TCWV-assim-with 4DVARNew-CNTRL 4dVAR TCWV analysesWell structured drying and moisteningForecasts:Clear improvement over NA first 3 daysImprovement over Europe days 7-8
38 Current Use of Radar in DA CentreNWP SystemResolution (km)Forecast LengthMet OfficeUKV+3dVAR(3hr)1.536hx4Meteo FranceAROME+3dVAR(3 hr)2.530hx4JMAMesoscale Model (MSM)+4dVAR515hX4, 33hx4NOAA/NCEPRapid Refresh +(RR)+3dVAR(1h)318hx24DWDCOSMO-DE+3dVAR2.818hx8Partial list of international research efforts into the use of radar data in operational NWP systems
39 Proposed SWFDP – Eastern Africa (status/progress) WMOProject develop in progressFocus on:Strong windsHeavy precipitationHazardous waves(Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria)Users: general public, agriculture and fisherycommunitiesDomains: (TBC)5E – 55E; 30N – 25S(for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifyingthe various severe weather events)31E – 36E; 2N – 4S(for the Lake Victoria)Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP(NWP guidance material)Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported byTMA, UKMO and DWDNational Met. Centres: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda,Burundi, Rwanda and EthiopiaPossible start-up 2011Provides “outlook”Peter Chen
40 SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings Severe weather: heavy rain, strong windsForecast range: up to day-5 (increased lead-time)Forecasting (GDPFS), warning services (PWS), Agriculture (incl. Fishery-Lake Victoria, AgM)High-impact focus (flash-flooding, wind damage, dry-spells)Forecast VerificationOther developments (phased-in)Technological gaps:Tropical convection, rapid on-set, localized eventsLack of forecasting tools in the very-short-range (< 12h)Little or no radar coverage, few real-time observations
41 Proposed SWFDP – Eastern Africa Satellite Imagery and ToolsWMO SPTailored forecasting products for farmers and fishermen(e.g. statistical downscaling)AgMPWS + HWRGeneral Public, nearshore vessels, Media and Disaster ManagementFarmers and fishermenMMO + AeMNavigation and RescueMH-EWSDissemination of Weather InformationFlash Flood GuidanceRSMC Nairobi(ECMWF, Met Office (UK), US African Desk, DWD)Global CentresDWD, UKMO, TMANational Met Centres(Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Ethiopia)GlobalNWP/EPSLAM, Ver.GuidanceProductsGDPFSPWSHWRUnderstand theweather dynamicsover the lakeWWRP
42 Lightning Initiation: Conceptual Idea What is the current LI forecast lead time?12963Height (km)Satellite DetectionTimeRadar DetectionCI Forecast without satelliteCI Forecast with satelliteUp to ~60 min added lead time for LI using GOESLead time increases with slower growing cumulus clouds (i.e. low CAPE environments)30-45 minto 75 minLI Forecast?42John Mecikalski/ UAH42
43 World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) Operated by U. Wash.50 + sites worldwidePotential for site in Kenya43Bob Holzworth
44 SERVIRCollaboration between NASA and USAID to enable the use of earth observations and models for timely decision making to benefit societyData and ModelsOnline MapsVisualizationsDecision SupportTrainingPartnershipsTraining and Capacity BuildingFlood Forecasting in AfricaMapping Fires in Guatemala MexicoA. Limaye/D. Irwin MSFC
45 SERVIR Hydrologic Modeling Spatially distributed hydrologic model CREST, developed by University of OklahomaBased on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) modelSpatial resolution ~1kmUses near real-time satellite rainfall estimates from TRMM to produce soil moisture, evapotranspiration and streamflowSERVIR-east Africa makes real time model outputs for a watershed in Lake Victoria basinNzoia River in the Lake Victoria BasinModeled EvapotranspirationCREST modelA. Limaye/D. Irwin MSFC
46 SERVIR Hydrologic Forecasting Work in underway to expand the spatial extent of CREST runs to Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) domain (~2000 x 2300 km)Spatial resolution: 1kmKMD rainfall and temperature forecasts, available hourly at 1/8 spatial resolution, to provide boundary conditions.Forecasted soil moisture, evapotranspiration and streamflow will enable KMD to issue early flood warning, especially in the flood prone watersheds in western Kenya.KMD intends to use the modeled fields to initialize the next model runA. Limaye/D. Irwin MSFC
47 WMO Donor Projects in Lake Victoria Region Preparedness to Climate Variability and Change, Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, and Enhanced Food SecurityImproving the technical and scientific capabilities of the NMHSs of the respective countries to provide weather/climate information, products and services in support of key economic sectorsEthiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, ZambiaFinlandSevere weather forecasting demonstration project (Eastern Africa)Enhanced use of outputs of Numerical Weather Prediction Systems for improved forecasts and warnings of hazardous weather conditionsBurundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda,Kenya, Tanzania, UgandaWorld Bank, WMO
48 WMO Donor Projects in Lake Victoria Region Climate Observations and Regional Modelling Support of Climate Risk Management and Sustainable DevelopmentThe proposed programme is intended to help the NMHS in GHA countries assemble the necessary climate observations and to understand and use regional climate modelling--that can help GHA countries design adaptation policies and reduce climate-associated risks.Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda, TanzaniaWorld Bank Regional Climate Framework in Eastern Africa to support adaptation to climate changeEstablishment of a Regional Climate Information Framework in Eastern Africa to support adaptation to climate change with the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC, Nairobi, Kenya) is a key element.KOICAPhase I completedPhase II under development
49 WMO Donor Projects in Lake Victoria Region Mobile Weather AlertWeather forecasts and warnings via mobile communicationsPILOT - To utilise mobile phone technology, including infrastructure, services and applications, to develop and demonstrate a sustainable warning service that reduces the vulnerability to weather hazards of communities in the Lake Victoria Region.Uganda, TanzaniaEricssonWBNorway?Lake Victoria Environmental Management Project (LVEMP II)Proposes to scale up Uganda Mobile Weather Alert Pilot including investment in Lake ObsProposes investment in NMHS development in Rwanda and BurundiKenya, Uganda, TanzaniaRwanda, BurundiWorld Bank
50 Nowcasting in Vietnam July 2010, Hanoi – Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain Data:Satellite images (MTSAT, FY2): about 15 minutes/image3 reflectivity radars: Việt Trì, Phủ Liễn, Nội Bàisynoptic observations (every 3 hours or telephone (if required))15 automatic rain-gauges (since Oct 2010)Information Transmission to Public:NCHMF WebsiteRadio channel (Voice of Vietnam – VOV) (live interview)
51 First Challenge in 2010 Need Nowcasting tools to aid the forecaster. 1000 years Anniversary of Hanoi Capital(01st – 10th October, 2010)NCHMF and AMO coordinate implementationDetails:15 automatic raingauges and 02 temporary AWSs in Ba Đình and Mỹ Đình areasTest period: 20th Sep – 30th Sep, 2010In normal conditions:Warning issued every 6 hoursInformation sent directly to Local Organization Committee via and faxIn thunderstorm / heavy rain conditions:Warning issued every hoursInformation was published on NCHMF website and VOV radio channel alsoNeed Nowcasting tools to aid the forecaster.
52 Related Projects VHMS and FMI project (PROMOSERV) on: Maintenance and calibration of automatic weather stations,use of radars,and career development of personnelVHMS and KMA project on:Forecaster’s Analysis System (FAS) for VietnamTyphoon join-Research in which KMA support Vietnam TAPS-2 (Typhoon Analysis and Prediction System)2010 – 2012 Modernization project of VHMSWWRP FDP ??? – culture change!!!
53 First Idea of Nowcasting Implementation - Attending “Radar and Nowcasting Workshop” in Cairns, Australia, 1-4 Aug 2007 hosted by BoM and GematronikWorking with Mr. Tom Yoshida, retired Meteorologist in charge of Guam Meteorology Department in 02 radar interpretation training workshop in Hanoi (2005 and 2008)Nowcast experiment in 20102010 – 2012 Modernization Project of HMS on:Observation networkautomatic stations (focus on Hanoi area)4 – 5 doppler radars (new and upgrade)Telecommunication systemData processing and archive systemRegional/ city NWP modelsForecasting Technology… Hopefully, all data will be available for operational system!NCHMF need a tool for nowcasting! I suggested VHMS to use TITAN and/or TIFS
54 ToRs JONAS SCFacilitate the identification of user needs and the engagement of users for nowcast applications in PWS;Promote the operational use of end-to-end nowcasting techniques, processes and systems;Provide guidance material on nowcasting applications in PWS, establish an inventory of existing operational nowcasting tools, processes and capabilities;Provide recommendations to PWSP on the endorsement and priority of projects focusing on end-to-end nowcasting activities; capacity building; and facilitate regional multi-national collaboration,Provide a link between PWSP and WWRPReport to PWSP and WWRP the progress made in projects and the use of nowcasting products among WMO Members; andFacilitate the assessment of the societal and economic benefits of nowcasting applications in PWS
55 Current operational nowcasting programs only focus on summer convection! Canada ~1980Australia ~1990China ~2003Romania ~2003Germany 2005Japan 2008