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Working Group on Nowcasting Research Report

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1 Working Group on Nowcasting Research Report
Paul Joe WWRP JSC Feb 2011 Geneva

2 Outline CAS XV/Gaps Committee Symposia
Advancing the Science - FDP/RDP’s Capacity Building Related Projects Specialty Meetings New Initiatives Lake Victoria South East Asia INCA – CE Regional Training Center for Nowcasting (Brazil)

3 Gaps and CAS XV Decisions
“Advise, promote, advance, publish, convene, capacity build” Advancing the Science Expanding the accuracy, precision, predictability/blending, heuristic, data assimilation and high resolution models Applications: Convective weather/initiation, multi-element, winter, complex terrain, hydrology, aviation Observational science, measurement errors for nowcasting (in situ, remote sensing – radar QC and QPE), Understanding (conceptual models; complex terrain, etc) Hydrology Links - MAP-D Phase (coupling) and INCA-CE FDP? Integrated Nowcasting: Satellite rainfall and nowcasting, lightning nowcasting (particularly related to developing countries), Forecast systems: decision making and system design in the nowcast process; links to PWS and operations, system design, seamless (links to aviation, hydrology, etc) OPERA Radar Data Exchange (Nowcasting Requirements) Technology and knowledge demonstration

4 Committee Membership Ttom Keenan Steve Goodman Thomas Haiden Ted Nakazawa Augusto Pereira Paul Joe Slobodan Nickovic Alan Seed Jenny Sun Marianne Koenig Jian Jie Wang Peter Li Jim Wilson(a)

5 Convene Nowcasting Symposia
WSN05 Toulouse, France, Meteo-France, Stephane Senesi WSN09 Environment Canada, Whistler, BC, George Isaac/Paul Joe QPE/QPF 3, Nanjing, China, Oct 2010, Brown/Lu WSN12 Rio de Janiero, INPE/USP, Augusto Pereira August 2012

6 Promote, Advance, Capacity Build FDP / RDP’s Initiatives
Sydney To demonstrate the capability of modern forecast systems and to quantify the associated benefits in the delivery of very short term weather forecasts MAP D Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region entire forecasting chain ranging from limited-area ensemble forecasting, high-resolution atmospheric modelling (km-scale), hydrological modelling, and nowcasting to decision making by the end users, i.e., an end-to-end forecasting system Implement advanced high impact weather and precipitation nowcast systems providing an enhance weather service for B08 with demonstration of impact Beijing 2008 Capacity Building Workshop - early 2012 Initiative to drive journal publications.

7 2010 Nowcasting Initiatives
Shanghai World EXPO 2010 Nowcasting Service Demonstration Project (WENS) In the context of the multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWS), to demonstrate how nowcasting applications can enhance short-range forecasts of high-impact weather using the opportunity afforded by the World EXPO 2010 SNOW-V10 RDP Focus is to improve our ability to produce short term or Nowcasts (within 6h) of high impact winter weather over complex terrain in association with the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games. Sochi2014 RDP/FDP ? WENS Capacity Building Nov 2011 SNOW-V10 Final Seminar 2012?

8 Warm start reduces the cross-over point in blended systems!
B08: Too low to be useful for “call to action” decisions Benjamin et al, WSN09

9 Predictability is a function of scale!
Alan Seed

10 Capacity Building Workshops
Sydney 2000 Australia Brazilia, Brazil 2003 Palm Cove, 2006 Asia-Pacific Region Pretoria, 2005 South African Weather Service

11 Other Related Projects
Joint Nowcasting, Applications and Service (JONAS) CBS/PWS WWRP co-chair Test Beds Service Commission of Instruments, Methods and Observations Radar Quality Control and Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Inter-comparison Project 14-15 April 2011, Exeter RQQI pronounced Rickey WENS Non-QC QC Perfect Radar

12 Forecast Systems Science, Process, Production and Service
Forecasting Systems and End User Requirements-Definition of outputs and functionality     nowcasting     short-medium term     hydrology     advanced user needs and capacity building; Requirements for Forecast Process and Decision Support for Forecasts and warnings     Using Guidance and Observations, NWP, EPS Use, MOS Direct Model output     Conceptual models     Integration of Decision support in meteorological Process     Visualisation      Verification     Training with emphasis on process use of applications and systems Man Machine Mix Issues-     Optimising Role of human in forecast process and potential of NWP/Automation   Approaches to Forecast System development     (manual, matrix, object grid etc)     digital forecast databases, user interaction etc Forecast Sub-Systems and Applications     Automatic Text generation     Graphical product     Dissemination and communication techniques Potential contributors to the meeting should be decided upon by CAS and CBS. In principle agreement was obtained at the 8th WWRP SSC (2005) to conduct a technical forum of invited experts to facilitate the development of a position paper on Forecasting Systems. Little progress, priority and funding How to progress this?

Increase the capacity of NMHS’s to deliver reliable nowcasts to enable informed decision-making in mitigating the effects of high impact weather and weather-related disasters. Links for legacy of WGNR

14 Specialty Meetings Closing the Gap /Advancing the Science
Mesoscale-Nowcasting Working Group Specialty Meeting Meeting approved Boulder, Colorado Dates 2011 TBD Jenny Sun and Dale Barker High Resolution, Spin up, Parameterizations, Data Assimilation 2nd Heuristic Nowcasting Meeting approved by WGNR Montreal, Canada Dates TBD 2012 Alan Seed and Isztar Zawadzki Probabilistic/Ensemble Nowcasting Blending Phase and Intensity

15 Lake Victoria Project Fisherman Deaths (5000 deaths/yr)
Executive Council approves recomendation to develop research project Basin dynamics Generation of HIW How to save lives Dr. Samwei Marigi/Dr. Dave Parsons Fisherman have no radios, dissemination an major issue -> cell phones Need for Conceptual Model Data Sparse Option 1: SERVIR Option 2 Radar deployment to demonstrate benefits (forecast skill and user benefits) Related Projects Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP) in implementation phase Mobile Weather Alert (MWA) Pilot Many more… (project overload) Radar status unclear (Uganda, Tazania) Severe weather Service Gaps Knowledge Observation Understanding (Nocturnal thunderstorms Technology (Lake surface temperature; CASA, OTG) Piggy back on SWFDP (later than sooner) JONAS or WWRP (WGNR, WGMW, SERA) to fill understanding gap first Expert Team Visit required Fisherman Deaths (5000 deaths/yr) Warning Service?

16 Lake Victoria Events Samwei Marigi
In May 1996, a passenger ferry M.V. Bukoba capsized while on its way to Mwanza in Tanzania killing around 800 people MV Kabelega sunk on 8th May 2005 and though no life was lost, consumer produce in the tune of 800 tons was lost. Grounding of M.V. Thor at Ghana island on 24th March 2006 loaded with 300,000 litres of petroleum products Capsizement and sinking of M. V. Nyamageni on 21st April 2006 In 22nd July 2010.Passenger boat capsized on Ugandan side of the lake and 50 people are feared dead. Survivors tale of strong waves that hit the vessel, shattering it into pieces. 200,000 fisherman and 5000 deaths per year Samwei Marigi

17 Lightning due to thunderstorms in weak forcing situations (Lake Breeze)
Daytime Nocturnal Albrecht, Goodman

18 Goodman

19 Mobile Weather Alert Project
Objective: Utilise mobile phone technology to develop a sustainable warning service that reduces the vulnerability of communities in the Lake Victoria Region to weather hazards. Tom Butcher Mobile Weather Alert: Community weather information via mobile technology

20 Key Outcomes Tom Butcher
(1) Integrated Observations (2) Severe Weather Forecasting (3) Communication via mobile phone (4) Stakeholder Engagement (5) Socio-economic benefits analysis Drawing upon Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project and other initiatives, clearly defined processes for the delivery of pilot warnings and forecasts established and implemented. Q: Any existing “call to action” warning service? Q: Knowledge of localize severe weather? Technology? Radar? Need to assess capabilities, service, knowledge, modes of collaboration! Tom Butcher Mobile Weather Alert: Community weather information via mobile technology

21 Need feedback. KMD waiting for WMO/WWRP response
Discussion CASA: Off The Grid Radar (UPR) “solar” Low Cost Low infrastructure Low Maintenance ??? WGNR providing support to the MWA to demonstrate how/which satellite products could be used (already EUMETSAT training done) Need to assess situation on options (Sat-Lightning demonstration; Understanding field/forecast project). Piggyback and extend on SWFDP and MWA projects; WWRP join next science/planning meeting? Note – many projects in the area! Sandra Cruz-Pol, UPR Need feedback. KMD waiting for WMO/WWRP response

22 South East Asia Contact by staff member of VHMS (HP Lam) to conduct a FDP in Vietnam Weather Radar Modernization /Phone discussions Finnish Met Institute is providing aid to Vietnam SWFDP in formulation stage NWG piggyback and fill gap of SWFDP (0-12) MWG piggyback and fill gap of SWFDP (6-12) Many unknowns culture gap, technology gap Service gap knowledge gaps JONAS Activity Expert Team Visit Cairns, 2007 Existing Proposed

23 > 100 Thunderstorm Days
> 100 days in all regions of Vietnam NCHMF – no tools for nowcasting (TITAN/TIFS)


25 Need Severe Weather Systems and Expertise

26 Suggestion for Next Steps
FMI did a good review and assess about current status of VHMS nowcasting system FMI is going to do some training courses of radar using and interpreting in 2011 What should be done next? More training with real events of Vietnam after modernization project (when radars, AWS, automatic raingauge and NWP products… are available) Improve nowcasting system in Vietnam from National to Regional and even Provincial levels by setting up a easy-to-use system. Radar data sharing between neighbour countries. CBS/PWS initiating a SWFDP in this area Joint SWFDP/WWRP with Nowcasting component under JONAS umbrella? Need to assess the warning, knowledge, technology, etc

27 INCA -CE Explore possibility to be WWRP FDP? Yong Wang

28 Brazil: RTC-N/Test Bed Average of 20 floods per year in Sao Paolo
deaths Serrana Jan 2011

29 Regional Training Centre - Nowcasting
Request made several years ago (Augusto Pereira/USP) Envision an advance course/post basic training on nowcasting - severe weather, urban, hydrology Housed at U of Sao Paolo Classrooms, radar facilities Target – South America Invite “S2K/B08” systems and experts Opportunity: FDP or Test Bed for nowcasting systems ?? – focus on urban, hydrology HIW Detailed project concept and implementation plan being prepared.

30 RTC-N -> Nowcasting (Verification, SERA) Test Bed
Radar Modernization Support by Ministry of Science and Technology. Interested in FDP/Testbed in Rio de Janiero and Sao Paolo. Pilot FDP using CARDS. Visit Canada in March. RTC-N -> Nowcasting (Verification, SERA) Test Bed Feedback from JSC?

31 Discussion Forecast Systems Workshop Lake Victoria South East Asia
South America Regional Training Centre – Nowcasting / FDP / Testbed


33 Nowcasts leads to a “call to action”
Met. Information VSRF (Anal+NWP) >caution Nowcast (Anal) >warning SRF(NWP) >Outlook Cancel warning Local Government Action for disaster prevention Action for recovery Ready to take action Stand by Back to normal (recovery) Citizen Keep in mind preparation evacuation 1-2 days before 3-6 hours before 1 hour before Is the skill of our forecast fulfilling their needs? disaster (Flood/Landslide) Precip. Intensity Courtesy, Shingo Yamada JMA

34 Mandate of WG WWRP Strategic Plan
Advise Promote Nowcasting Advance the Science Publish and Convene Capacity Build and Technology Transfer

35 Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System
Temperature Perturbation, Winds, 35 dBZ Echo Nowcast Jenny Sun

36 HRRR reflectivity verification Skill vs. forecast length
Impact of Radar Data on NWP HRRR reflectivity verification Skill vs. forecast length All HRRR forecasts Radar CSI No Radar Forecast Length The HRRR is a 3-km resolution, hourly updated, cloud-resolving atmospheric model, initialized by DFI-fields from the 13km radar-enhanced Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) run at NOAA/ESRL/GSD. (soon to be initialized similarly by the 13km radar-assimilating 30 dBZ reflectivity on HRRR 3-km grid Verification period 23 June – 25 Aug 2008 Weygandt et al WSN09 WSN09 Evaluation of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): an hourly updated convection resolving model utilizing radar reflectivity assimilation from the RUC/RR Steve Weygandt, Stan Benjamin, Tanya Smirnova, Curtis Alexander, Doug Koch, John Brown, Kevin Brundage, Barry Schwartz, Ming Hu, Susan Sahm, Brian Jamison NOAA ESRL

37 Impact of Radar Data on NWP
ECMWF 1d+4dVAR 12h Window T511 L60 20May-20 June 2005 Hourly RR 4 km NCEP grid Rain-1d VAR, moisture increments vertically integrated for pseudo TCWV-assim-with 4DVAR New-CNTRL 4dVAR TCWV analyses Well structured drying and moistening Forecasts: Clear improvement over NA first 3 days Improvement over Europe days 7-8

38 Current Use of Radar in DA
Centre NWP System Resolution (km) Forecast Length Met Office UKV+3dVAR(3hr) 1.5 36hx4 Meteo France AROME+3dVAR(3 hr) 2.5 30hx4 JMA Mesoscale Model (MSM)+4dVAR 5 15hX4, 33hx4 NOAA/ NCEP Rapid Refresh +(RR)+3dVAR(1h) 3 18hx24 DWD COSMO-DE+3dVAR 2.8 18hx8 Partial list of international research efforts into the use of radar data in operational NWP systems

39 Proposed SWFDP – Eastern Africa (status/progress)
WMO Project develop in progress Focus on: Strong winds Heavy precipitation Hazardous waves (Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria) Users: general public, agriculture and fishery communities Domains: (TBC) 5E – 55E; 30N – 25S (for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying the various severe weather events) 31E – 36E; 2N – 4S (for the Lake Victoria) Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP (NWP guidance material) Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by TMA, UKMO and DWD National Met. Centres: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and Ethiopia Possible start-up 2011 Provides “outlook” Peter Chen

40 SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings
Severe weather: heavy rain, strong winds Forecast range: up to day-5 (increased lead-time) Forecasting (GDPFS), warning services (PWS), Agriculture (incl. Fishery-Lake Victoria, AgM) High-impact focus (flash-flooding, wind damage, dry-spells) Forecast Verification Other developments (phased-in) Technological gaps: Tropical convection, rapid on-set, localized events Lack of forecasting tools in the very-short-range (< 12h) Little or no radar coverage, few real-time observations

41 Proposed SWFDP – Eastern Africa
Satellite Imagery and Tools WMO SP Tailored forecasting products for farmers and fishermen (e.g. statistical downscaling) AgM PWS + HWR General Public, nearshore vessels, Media and Disaster Management Farmers and fishermen MMO + AeM Navigation and Rescue MH-EWS Dissemination of Weather Information Flash Flood Guidance RSMC Nairobi (ECMWF, Met Office (UK), US African Desk, DWD) Global Centres DWD, UKMO, TMA National Met Centres (Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Ethiopia) Global NWP/EPS LAM, Ver. Guidance Products GDPFS PWS HWR Understand the weather dynamics over the lake WWRP

42 Lightning Initiation: Conceptual Idea
What is the current LI forecast lead time? 12 9 6 3 Height (km) Satellite Detection Time Radar Detection CI Forecast without satellite CI Forecast with satellite Up to ~60 min added lead time for LI using GOES Lead time increases with slower growing cumulus clouds (i.e. low CAPE environments) 30-45 min to 75 min LI Forecast? 42 John Mecikalski/ UAH 42

43 World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN)
Operated by U. Wash. 50 + sites worldwide Potential for site in Kenya 43 Bob Holzworth

44 SERVIR Collaboration between NASA and USAID to enable the use of earth observations and models for timely decision making to benefit society Data and Models Online Maps Visualizations Decision Support Training Partnerships Training and Capacity Building Flood Forecasting in Africa Mapping Fires in Guatemala Mexico A. Limaye/D. Irwin MSFC

45 SERVIR Hydrologic Modeling
Spatially distributed hydrologic model CREST, developed by University of Oklahoma Based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model Spatial resolution ~1km Uses near real-time satellite rainfall estimates from TRMM to produce soil moisture, evapotranspiration and streamflow SERVIR-east Africa makes real time model outputs for a watershed in Lake Victoria basin Nzoia River in the Lake Victoria Basin Modeled Evapotranspiration CREST model A. Limaye/D. Irwin MSFC

46 SERVIR Hydrologic Forecasting
Work in underway to expand the spatial extent of CREST runs to Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) domain (~2000 x 2300 km) Spatial resolution: 1km KMD rainfall and temperature forecasts, available hourly at 1/8 spatial resolution, to provide boundary conditions. Forecasted soil moisture, evapotranspiration and streamflow will enable KMD to issue early flood warning, especially in the flood prone watersheds in western Kenya. KMD intends to use the modeled fields to initialize the next model run A. Limaye/D. Irwin MSFC

47 WMO Donor Projects in Lake Victoria Region
Preparedness to Climate Variability and Change, Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, and Enhanced Food Security Improving the technical and scientific capabilities of the NMHSs of the respective countries to provide weather/climate information, products and services in support of key economic sectors Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia Finland Severe weather forecasting demonstration project (Eastern Africa) Enhanced use of outputs of Numerical Weather Prediction Systems for improved forecasts and warnings of hazardous weather conditions Burundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda World Bank, WMO

48 WMO Donor Projects in Lake Victoria Region
Climate Observations and Regional Modelling Support of Climate Risk Management and Sustainable Development The proposed programme is intended to help the NMHS in GHA countries assemble the necessary climate observations and to understand and use regional climate modelling--that can help GHA countries design adaptation policies and reduce climate-associated risks. Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania World Bank   Regional Climate Framework in Eastern Africa to support adaptation to climate change Establishment of a Regional Climate Information Framework in Eastern Africa to support adaptation to climate change with the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC, Nairobi, Kenya) is a key element. KOICA Phase I completed Phase II under development

49 WMO Donor Projects in Lake Victoria Region
Mobile Weather Alert Weather forecasts and warnings via mobile communications PILOT - To utilise mobile phone technology, including infrastructure, services and applications, to develop and demonstrate a sustainable warning service that reduces the vulnerability to weather hazards of communities in the Lake Victoria Region. Uganda, Tanzania Ericsson WB Norway? Lake Victoria Environmental Management Project (LVEMP II) Proposes to scale up Uganda Mobile Weather Alert Pilot including investment in Lake Obs Proposes investment in NMHS development in Rwanda and Burundi Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania Rwanda, Burundi World Bank

50 Nowcasting in Vietnam July 2010, Hanoi – Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain
Data: Satellite images (MTSAT, FY2): about 15 minutes/image 3 reflectivity radars: Việt Trì, Phủ Liễn, Nội Bài synoptic observations (every 3 hours or telephone (if required)) 15 automatic rain-gauges (since Oct 2010) Information Transmission to Public: NCHMF Website Radio channel (Voice of Vietnam – VOV) (live interview)

51 First Challenge in 2010 Need Nowcasting tools to aid the forecaster.
1000 years Anniversary of Hanoi Capital (01st – 10th October, 2010) NCHMF and AMO coordinate implementation Details: 15 automatic raingauges and 02 temporary AWSs in Ba Đình and Mỹ Đình areas Test period: 20th Sep – 30th Sep, 2010 In normal conditions: Warning issued every 6 hours Information sent directly to Local Organization Committee via and fax In thunderstorm / heavy rain conditions: Warning issued every hours Information was published on NCHMF website and VOV radio channel also Need Nowcasting tools to aid the forecaster.

52 Related Projects VHMS and FMI project (PROMOSERV) on:
Maintenance and calibration of automatic weather stations, use of radars, and career development of personnel VHMS and KMA project on: Forecaster’s Analysis System (FAS) for Vietnam Typhoon join-Research in which KMA support Vietnam TAPS-2 (Typhoon Analysis and Prediction System) 2010 – 2012 Modernization project of VHMS WWRP FDP ??? – culture change!!!

53 First Idea of Nowcasting Implementation
- Attending “Radar and Nowcasting Workshop” in Cairns, Australia, 1-4 Aug 2007 hosted by BoM and Gematronik Working with Mr. Tom Yoshida, retired Meteorologist in charge of Guam Meteorology Department in 02 radar interpretation training workshop in Hanoi (2005 and 2008) Nowcast experiment in 2010 2010 – 2012 Modernization Project of HMS on: Observation network automatic stations (focus on Hanoi area) 4 – 5 doppler radars (new and upgrade) Telecommunication system Data processing and archive system Regional/ city NWP models Forecasting Technology  Hopefully, all data will be available for operational system! NCHMF need a tool for nowcasting!  I suggested VHMS to use TITAN and/or TIFS

54 ToRs JONAS SC Facilitate the identification of user needs and the engagement of users for nowcast applications in PWS; Promote the operational use of end-to-end nowcasting techniques, processes and systems; Provide guidance material on nowcasting applications in PWS, establish an inventory of existing operational nowcasting tools, processes and capabilities; Provide recommendations to PWSP on the endorsement and priority of projects focusing on end-to-end nowcasting activities; capacity building; and facilitate regional multi-national collaboration, Provide a link between PWSP and WWRP Report to PWSP and WWRP the progress made in projects and the use of nowcasting products among WMO Members; and Facilitate the assessment of the societal and economic benefits of nowcasting applications in PWS

55 Current operational nowcasting programs only focus on summer convection!
Canada ~1980 Australia ~1990 China ~2003 Romania ~2003 Germany 2005 Japan 2008

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