1. Working Group on Nowcasting Research Report
Paul Joe
WWRP JSC Feb 2011 Geneva

2. Outline CAS XV/Gaps Committee Symposia
Advancing the Science - FDP/RDP’s
Capacity Building
Related Projects
Specialty Meetings
New Initiatives
Lake Victoria
South East Asia
INCA – CE
Regional Training Center for Nowcasting (Brazil)

3. Gaps and CAS XV Decisions
“Advise, promote, advance, publish, convene, capacity build”
Advancing the Science
Expanding the accuracy, precision, predictability/blending, heuristic, data assimilation and high resolution models
Applications: Convective weather/initiation, multi-element, winter, complex terrain, hydrology, aviation
Observational science, measurement errors for nowcasting (in situ, remote sensing – radar QC and QPE),
Understanding (conceptual models; complex terrain, etc)
Hydrology Links - MAP-D Phase (coupling) and INCA-CE FDP?
Integrated Nowcasting: Satellite rainfall and nowcasting, lightning nowcasting (particularly related to developing countries),
Forecast systems: decision making and system design in the nowcast process; links to PWS and operations, system design, seamless (links to aviation, hydrology, etc)
OPERA Radar Data Exchange (Nowcasting Requirements)
Technology and knowledge demonstration

4. Committee Membership
Ttom Keenan Steve Goodman Thomas Haiden Ted Nakazawa Augusto Pereira Paul Joe
Slobodan Nickovic Alan Seed Jenny Sun Marianne Koenig Jian Jie Wang Peter Li Jim Wilson(a)

5. Convene Nowcasting Symposia
WSN05 Toulouse, France, Meteo-France, Stephane Senesi
WSN09 Environment Canada, Whistler, BC, George Isaac/Paul Joe
QPE/QPF 3, Nanjing, China, Oct 2010, Brown/Lu
WSN12 Rio de Janiero, INPE/USP, Augusto Pereira August 2012

6. Promote, Advance, Capacity Build FDP / RDP’s Initiatives
Sydney
To demonstrate the capability of modern forecast systems and to quantify the associated benefits in the delivery of very short term weather forecasts
MAP D
Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region entire forecasting chain ranging from limited-area ensemble forecasting, high-resolution atmospheric modelling (km-scale), hydrological modelling, and nowcasting to decision making by the end users, i.e., an end-to-end forecasting system
Implement advanced high impact weather and precipitation nowcast systems providing an enhance weather service for B08 with demonstration of impact
Beijing 2008
Capacity Building Workshop - early 2012
Initiative to drive journal publications.

7. 2010 Nowcasting Initiatives
Shanghai World EXPO 2010 Nowcasting Service Demonstration Project (WENS)
In the context of the multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWS), to demonstrate how nowcasting applications can enhance short-range forecasts of high-impact weather using the opportunity afforded by the World EXPO 2010
SNOW-V10
RDP
Focus is to improve our ability to produce short term or Nowcasts (within 6h) of high impact winter weather over complex terrain in association with the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games.
Sochi2014 RDP/FDP ?
WENS Capacity Building Nov 2011
SNOW-V10 Final Seminar 2012?

8. Warm start reduces the cross-over point in blended systems!
B08: Too low to be useful for “call to action” decisions
Benjamin et al, WSN09

9. Predictability is a function of scale!
Alan Seed

10. Capacity Building Workshops
Sydney 2000
Australia
Brazilia, Brazil 2003
Palm Cove, 2006
Asia-Pacific Region
Pretoria, 2005
South African Weather Service

11. Other Related Projects
Joint Nowcasting, Applications and Service (JONAS)
CBS/PWS
WWRP co-chair
Test Beds
Service
Commission of Instruments, Methods and Observations
Radar Quality Control and Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Inter-comparison Project
14-15 April 2011, Exeter
RQQI pronounced Rickey
WENS
Non-QC QC
Perfect Radar

12. Forecast Systems Science, Process, Production and Service
Forecasting Systems and End User Requirements-Definition of outputs and functionality
    nowcasting
    short-medium term
    hydrology
    advanced user needs and capacity building;
Requirements for Forecast Process and Decision Support for Forecasts and warnings
    Using Guidance and Observations, NWP, EPS Use, MOS Direct Model output
    Conceptual models
    Integration of Decision support in meteorological Process
    Visualisation 
    Verification
    Training with emphasis on process use of applications and systems
Man Machine Mix Issues-
    Optimising Role of human in forecast process and potential of NWP/Automation  
Approaches to Forecast System development
    (manual, matrix, object grid etc)
    digital forecast databases, user interaction etc
Forecast Sub-Systems and Applications
    Automatic Text generation
    Graphical product
    Dissemination and communication techniques
Potential contributors to the meeting should be decided upon by CAS and CBS.
In principle agreement was obtained at the 8th WWRP SSC (2005) to conduct a technical forum of invited experts to facilitate the development of a position paper on Forecasting Systems.
Little progress, priority and funding
How to progress this?

13. JONAS Mission CBS/PWS + WWRP
Increase the capacity of NMHS’s to deliver reliable nowcasts to enable informed decision-making in mitigating the effects of high impact weather and weather-related disasters.
Links for legacy of WGNR

14. Specialty Meetings Closing the Gap /Advancing the Science
Mesoscale-Nowcasting Working Group Specialty Meeting
Meeting approved
Boulder, Colorado
Dates 2011 TBD
Jenny Sun and Dale Barker
High Resolution, Spin up, Parameterizations, Data Assimilation
2nd Heuristic Nowcasting
Meeting approved by WGNR
Montreal, Canada
Dates TBD 2012
Alan Seed and Isztar Zawadzki
Probabilistic/Ensemble Nowcasting
Blending
Phase and Intensity

15. Lake Victoria Project Fisherman Deaths (5000 deaths/yr)
Executive Council approves recomendation to develop research project
Basin dynamics
Generation of HIW
How to save lives
Dr. Samwei Marigi/Dr. Dave Parsons
Fisherman have no radios, dissemination an major issue -> cell phones
Need for Conceptual Model
Data Sparse
Option 1:
SERVIR
Option 2
Radar deployment to demonstrate benefits (forecast skill and user benefits)
Related Projects
Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP) in implementation phase
Mobile Weather Alert (MWA) Pilot
Many more… (project overload)
Radar status unclear (Uganda, Tazania)
Severe weather Service Gaps
Knowledge
Observation
Understanding (Nocturnal thunderstorms
Technology (Lake surface temperature; CASA, OTG)
Piggy back on SWFDP (later than sooner)
JONAS or WWRP (WGNR, WGMW, SERA) to fill understanding gap first
Expert Team Visit required
Fisherman
Deaths (5000 deaths/yr)
Warning Service?

16. Lake Victoria Events Samwei Marigi
In May 1996, a passenger ferry M.V. Bukoba capsized while on its way to Mwanza in Tanzania killing around 800 people
MV Kabelega sunk on 8th May 2005 and though no life was lost, consumer produce in the tune of 800 tons was lost.
Grounding of M.V. Thor at Ghana island on 24th March 2006 loaded with 300,000 litres of petroleum products
Capsizement and sinking of M. V. Nyamageni on 21st April 2006
In 22nd July 2010.Passenger boat capsized on Ugandan side of the lake and 50 people are feared dead. Survivors tale of strong waves that hit the vessel, shattering it into pieces.
200,000 fisherman and 5000 deaths per year
Samwei Marigi

17. Lightning due to thunderstorms in weak forcing situations (Lake Breeze)
Daytime
Nocturnal
Albrecht, Goodman

18. Goodman

19. Mobile Weather Alert Project
Objective:
Utilise mobile phone technology to develop a sustainable warning service that reduces the vulnerability of communities in the Lake Victoria Region to weather hazards.
Tom Butcher
Mobile Weather Alert: Community weather information via mobile technology

20. Key Outcomes Tom Butcher
(1)
Integrated Observations
(2)
Severe Weather Forecasting
(3) Communication via mobile phone
(4)
Stakeholder Engagement
(5) Socio-economic benefits analysis
Drawing upon Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project and other initiatives, clearly defined processes for the delivery of pilot warnings and forecasts established and implemented.
Q: Any existing “call to action” warning service?
Q: Knowledge of localize severe weather? Technology? Radar?
Need to assess capabilities, service, knowledge, modes of collaboration!
Tom Butcher
Mobile Weather Alert: Community weather information via mobile technology

21. Need feedback. KMD waiting for WMO/WWRP response
Discussion
CASA:
Off The Grid
Radar (UPR)
“solar”
Low Cost
Low infrastructure
Low Maintenance ???
WGNR providing support to the MWA to demonstrate how/which satellite products could be used (already EUMETSAT training done)
Need to assess situation on options (Sat-Lightning demonstration; Understanding field/forecast project).
Piggyback and extend on SWFDP and MWA projects; WWRP join next science/planning meeting?
Note – many projects in the area!
Sandra Cruz-Pol, UPR
Need feedback. KMD waiting for WMO/WWRP response

22. South East Asia
Contact by staff member of VHMS (HP Lam) to conduct a FDP in Vietnam
Weather Radar Modernization
/Phone discussions
Finnish Met Institute is providing aid to Vietnam
SWFDP in formulation stage
NWG piggyback and fill gap of SWFDP (0-12)
MWG piggyback and fill gap of SWFDP (6-12)
Many unknowns
culture gap,
technology gap
Service gap
knowledge gaps
JONAS Activity
Expert Team Visit
Cairns, 2007
Existing
Proposed

23. > 100 Thunderstorm Days
> 100 days in all regions of Vietnam
NCHMF – no tools for nowcasting (TITAN/TIFS)

25. Need Severe Weather Systems and Expertise

26. Suggestion for Next Steps
FMI did a good review and assess about current status of VHMS nowcasting system
FMI is going to do some training courses of radar using and interpreting in 2011
What should be done next?
More training with real events of Vietnam after modernization project (when radars, AWS, automatic raingauge and NWP products… are available)
Improve nowcasting system in Vietnam from National to Regional and even Provincial levels by setting up a easy-to-use system.
Radar data sharing between neighbour countries.
CBS/PWS initiating a SWFDP in this area
Joint SWFDP/WWRP with Nowcasting component under JONAS umbrella?
Need to assess the warning, knowledge, technology, etc

27. INCA -CE
Explore possibility to be WWRP FDP?
Yong Wang

28. Brazil: RTC-N/Test Bed Average of 20 floods per year in Sao Paolo
deaths
Serrana Jan 2011

29. Regional Training Centre - Nowcasting
Request made several years ago (Augusto Pereira/USP)
Envision an advance course/post basic training on nowcasting - severe weather, urban, hydrology
Housed at U of Sao Paolo
Classrooms, radar facilities
Target – South America
Invite “S2K/B08” systems and experts
Opportunity: FDP or Test Bed for nowcasting systems ?? – focus on urban, hydrology HIW
Detailed project concept and implementation plan being prepared.

30. RTC-N -> Nowcasting (Verification, SERA) Test Bed
Radar Modernization
Support by Ministry of Science and Technology. Interested in FDP/Testbed in Rio de Janiero and Sao Paolo. Pilot FDP using CARDS. Visit Canada in March.
RTC-N -> Nowcasting (Verification, SERA) Test Bed
Feedback from JSC?

31. Discussion Forecast Systems Workshop Lake Victoria South East Asia
South America Regional Training Centre – Nowcasting / FDP / Testbed

33. Nowcasts leads to a “call to action”
Met. Information
VSRF (Anal+NWP) >caution
Nowcast (Anal) >warning
SRF(NWP) >Outlook
Cancel warning
Local Government
Action for disaster prevention
Action for recovery
Ready to take action
Stand by
Back to normal (recovery)
Citizen
Keep in mind
preparation
evacuation
1-2 days before
3-6 hours before
1 hour before
Is the skill of our forecast fulfilling their needs?
disaster (Flood/Landslide)
Precip. Intensity
Courtesy, Shingo Yamada JMA

34. Mandate of WG WWRP Strategic Plan
Advise
Promote Nowcasting
Advance the Science
Publish and Convene
Capacity Build and Technology Transfer

35. Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System
Temperature Perturbation, Winds, 35 dBZ Echo Nowcast
Jenny Sun

36. HRRR reflectivity verification Skill vs. forecast length
Impact of Radar Data on NWP
HRRR reflectivity verification
Skill vs. forecast length
All HRRR forecasts
Radar
CSI
No Radar
Forecast
Length
The HRRR is a 3-km resolution, hourly updated, cloud-resolving atmospheric model, initialized by DFI-fields from the 13km radar-enhanced Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) run at NOAA/ESRL/GSD. (soon to be initialized similarly by the 13km radar-assimilating
30 dBZ reflectivity
on HRRR 3-km grid
Verification period
23 June – 25 Aug 2008
Weygandt et al
WSN09
WSN09 Evaluation of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): an hourly updated convection resolving model utilizing radar reflectivity assimilation from the RUC/RR Steve Weygandt, Stan Benjamin, Tanya Smirnova, Curtis Alexander, Doug Koch, John Brown, Kevin Brundage, Barry Schwartz, Ming Hu, Susan Sahm, Brian Jamison NOAA ESRL

37. Impact of Radar Data on NWP
ECMWF 1d+4dVAR
12h Window T511 L60
20May-20 June 2005
Hourly RR 4 km NCEP grid
Rain-1d VAR, moisture increments vertically integrated
for pseudo TCWV-assim-with 4DVAR
New-CNTRL 4dVAR TCWV analyses
Well structured drying and moistening
Forecasts:
Clear improvement over NA first 3 days
Improvement over Europe days 7-8

38. Current Use of Radar in DA
Centre
NWP System
Resolution (km)
Forecast Length
Met Office
UKV+3dVAR(3hr)
1.5
36hx4
Meteo France
AROME+3dVAR(3 hr)
2.5
30hx4
JMA
Mesoscale Model (MSM)+4dVAR 5
15hX4, 33hx4
NOAA/
NCEP
Rapid Refresh +(RR)+3dVAR(1h) 3
18hx24
DWD
COSMO-DE+3dVAR
2.8
18hx8
Partial list of international research efforts into the use of radar data in operational NWP systems

39. Proposed SWFDP – Eastern Africa (status/progress)
WMO
Project develop in progress
Focus on:
Strong winds
Heavy precipitation
Hazardous waves
(Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria)
Users: general public, agriculture and fishery
communities
Domains: (TBC)
5E – 55E; 30N – 25S
(for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying
the various severe weather events)
31E – 36E; 2N – 4S
(for the Lake Victoria)
Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP
(NWP guidance material)
Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by
TMA, UKMO and DWD
National Met. Centres: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda,
Burundi, Rwanda and Ethiopia
Possible start-up 2011
Provides “outlook”
Peter Chen

40. SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings
Severe weather: heavy rain, strong winds
Forecast range: up to day-5 (increased lead-time)
Forecasting (GDPFS), warning services (PWS), Agriculture (incl. Fishery-Lake Victoria, AgM)
High-impact focus (flash-flooding, wind damage, dry-spells)
Forecast Verification
Other developments (phased-in)
Technological gaps:
Tropical convection, rapid on-set, localized events
Lack of forecasting tools in the very-short-range (< 12h)
Little or no radar coverage, few real-time observations

41. Proposed SWFDP – Eastern Africa
Satellite Imagery and Tools
WMO SP
Tailored forecasting products for farmers and fishermen
(e.g. statistical downscaling)
AgM
PWS + HWR
General Public, nearshore vessels, Media and Disaster Management
Farmers and fishermen
MMO + AeM
Navigation and Rescue
MH-EWS
Dissemination of Weather Information
Flash Flood Guidance
RSMC Nairobi
(ECMWF, Met Office (UK), US African Desk, DWD)
Global Centres
DWD, UKMO, TMA
National Met Centres
(Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Ethiopia)
Global
NWP/EPS
LAM, Ver.
Guidance
Products
GDPFS
PWS
HWR
Understand the
weather dynamics
over the lake
WWRP

42. Lightning Initiation: Conceptual Idea
What is the current LI forecast lead time? 12 9 6 3
Height (km)
Satellite Detection
Time
Radar Detection
CI Forecast without satellite
CI Forecast with satellite
Up to ~60 min added lead time for LI using GOES
Lead time increases with slower growing cumulus clouds (i.e. low CAPE environments)
30-45 min
to 75 min
LI Forecast? 42
John Mecikalski/ UAH 42

43. World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN)
Operated by U. Wash.
50 + sites worldwide
Potential for site in Kenya 43
Bob Holzworth

44. SERVIR
Collaboration between NASA and USAID to enable the use of earth observations and models for timely decision making to benefit society
Data and Models
Online Maps
Visualizations
Decision Support
Training
Partnerships
Training and Capacity Building
Flood Forecasting in Africa
Mapping Fires in Guatemala Mexico
A. Limaye/D. Irwin MSFC

45. SERVIR Hydrologic Modeling
Spatially distributed hydrologic model CREST, developed by University of Oklahoma
Based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model
Spatial resolution ~1km
Uses near real-time satellite rainfall estimates from TRMM to produce soil moisture, evapotranspiration and streamflow
SERVIR-east Africa makes real time model outputs for a watershed in Lake Victoria basin
Nzoia River in the Lake Victoria Basin
Modeled Evapotranspiration
CREST model
A. Limaye/D. Irwin MSFC

46. SERVIR Hydrologic Forecasting
Work in underway to expand the spatial extent of CREST runs to Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) domain (~2000 x 2300 km)
Spatial resolution: 1km
KMD rainfall and temperature forecasts, available hourly at 1/8 spatial resolution, to provide boundary conditions.
Forecasted soil moisture, evapotranspiration and streamflow will enable KMD to issue early flood warning, especially in the flood prone watersheds in western Kenya.
KMD intends to use the modeled fields to initialize the next model run
A. Limaye/D. Irwin MSFC

47. WMO Donor Projects in Lake Victoria Region
Preparedness to Climate Variability and Change, Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, and Enhanced Food Security
Improving the technical and scientific capabilities of the NMHSs of the respective countries to provide weather/climate information, products and services in support of key economic sectors
Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia
Finland
Severe weather forecasting demonstration project (Eastern Africa)
Enhanced use of outputs of Numerical Weather Prediction Systems for improved forecasts and warnings of hazardous weather conditions
Burundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda,
Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda
World Bank, WMO

48. WMO Donor Projects in Lake Victoria Region
Climate Observations and Regional Modelling Support of Climate Risk Management and Sustainable Development
The proposed programme is intended to help the NMHS in GHA countries assemble the necessary climate observations and to understand and use regional climate modelling--that can help GHA countries design adaptation policies and reduce climate-associated risks.
Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania
World Bank  
Regional Climate Framework in Eastern Africa to support adaptation to climate change
Establishment of a Regional Climate Information Framework in Eastern Africa to support adaptation to climate change with the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC, Nairobi, Kenya) is a key element.
KOICA
Phase I completed
Phase II under development

49. WMO Donor Projects in Lake Victoria Region
Mobile Weather Alert
Weather forecasts and warnings via mobile communications
PILOT - To utilise mobile phone technology, including infrastructure, services and applications, to develop and demonstrate a sustainable warning service that reduces the vulnerability to weather hazards of communities in the Lake Victoria Region.
Uganda, Tanzania
Ericsson WB
Norway?
Lake Victoria Environmental Management Project (LVEMP II)
Proposes to scale up Uganda Mobile Weather Alert Pilot including investment in Lake Obs
Proposes investment in NMHS development in Rwanda and Burundi
Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania
Rwanda, Burundi
World Bank

50. Nowcasting in Vietnam July 2010, Hanoi – Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain
Data:
Satellite images (MTSAT, FY2): about 15 minutes/image
3 reflectivity radars: Việt Trì, Phủ Liễn, Nội Bài
synoptic observations (every 3 hours or telephone (if required))
15 automatic rain-gauges (since Oct 2010)
Information Transmission to Public:
NCHMF Website
Radio channel (Voice of Vietnam – VOV) (live interview)

51. First Challenge in 2010 Need Nowcasting tools to aid the forecaster.
1000 years Anniversary of Hanoi Capital
(01st – 10th October, 2010)
NCHMF and AMO coordinate implementation
Details:
15 automatic raingauges and 02 temporary AWSs in Ba Đình and Mỹ Đình areas
Test period: 20th Sep – 30th Sep, 2010
In normal conditions:
Warning issued every 6 hours
Information sent directly to Local Organization Committee via and fax
In thunderstorm / heavy rain conditions:
Warning issued every hours
Information was published on NCHMF website and VOV radio channel also
Need Nowcasting tools to aid the forecaster.

52. Related Projects VHMS and FMI project (PROMOSERV) on:
Maintenance and calibration of automatic weather stations,
use of radars,
and career development of personnel
VHMS and KMA project on:
Forecaster’s Analysis System (FAS) for Vietnam
Typhoon join-Research in which KMA support Vietnam TAPS-2 (Typhoon Analysis and Prediction System)
2010 – 2012 Modernization project of VHMS
WWRP FDP ??? – culture change!!!

53. First Idea of Nowcasting Implementation
- Attending “Radar and Nowcasting Workshop” in Cairns, Australia, 1-4 Aug 2007 hosted by BoM and Gematronik
Working with Mr. Tom Yoshida, retired Meteorologist in charge of Guam Meteorology Department in 02 radar interpretation training workshop in Hanoi (2005 and 2008)
Nowcast experiment in 2010
2010 – 2012 Modernization Project of HMS on:
Observation network
automatic stations (focus on Hanoi area)
4 – 5 doppler radars (new and upgrade)
Telecommunication system
Data processing and archive system
Regional/ city NWP models
Forecasting Technology …
 Hopefully, all data will be available for operational system!
NCHMF need a tool for nowcasting!
 I suggested VHMS to use TITAN and/or TIFS

54. ToRs JONAS SC
Facilitate the identification of user needs and the engagement of users for nowcast applications in PWS;
Promote the operational use of end-to-end nowcasting techniques, processes and systems;
Provide guidance material on nowcasting applications in PWS, establish an inventory of existing operational nowcasting tools, processes and capabilities;
Provide recommendations to PWSP on the endorsement and priority of projects focusing on end-to-end nowcasting activities; capacity building; and facilitate regional multi-national collaboration,
Provide a link between PWSP and WWRP
Report to PWSP and WWRP the progress made in projects and the use of nowcasting products among WMO Members; and
Facilitate the assessment of the societal and economic benefits of nowcasting applications in PWS

55. Current operational nowcasting programs only focus on summer convection!
Canada ~1980
Australia ~1990
China ~2003
Romania ~2003
Germany 2005
Japan 2008