1. Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)
Peter Chen
Chief, Data-Processing and Forecasting System Division
Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Department
THORPEX Africa Meeting
Geneva
8 – 10 May 2012

2. Numerical simulations of the atmosphere
“In general, the public is not aware that our daily weather forecasts start out as initial value problems on the major national weather services supercomputers. Numerical weather prediction provides the basic guidance for weather forecasting beyond the first few hours.”
Eugenia Kalnay (2003)
From: “Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and predictability” Cambridge University Press, 2003, 5th printing 2009

3. Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)
WMO
Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries (Cg-XV, 2007)
“NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.”
WMO Strategic Thrusts
Improved Service Quality and Service Delivery
Improved delivery and access to high quality weather, water, related environmental predictions, information, and services
Reduced risks and potential impacts of hazards
Strengthening Capacity Building

4. Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)
WMO
SWFDP Main Goals
Improve Severe Weather Forecasting
Improve lead-time of warnings
Improve interaction of NMHSs with users: media, disaster management, civil protection authorities, various socio-economic sectors (e.g. agriculture, fisheries, etc.)
“SWFDP provides a practical and beneficial platform for
preparation and dissemination of multi-hazard, early warnings”
SWFDP Regional Subprojects
Southern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria)
South Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC Wellington)
Eastern Africa (in development, 6 countries; planned start-up 2011)
Southeast Asia (in development, 4 countries)
Bay of Bengal (in development, 6 countries)

5. SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process
Global NWP centres to provide available NWP and EPS products, including in the form of probabilities, cut to the project window frame; Regional centres to interpret information received from global NWP centres, prepare daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, run limited-area model to refine products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs; National Met. Centres maintain responsibility/authority over national warning services, issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; liaise with Disaster Management, and contribute feedback and evaluation of the project
Global Centers
RSMC Pretoria
NMCs
Disaster Management Centres 5

6. SWFDP – Southern Africa
16 countries, RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Réunion,
Met Office UK, NCEP USA, ECMWF
Example: SWFDP-Southern Africa web site (RSMC Pretoria)
Since 2006 6

7. SWFDP – Eastern Africa Started Sept. 2011 6 Countries
RSMC Nairobi & Regional Forecast Support Centre Dar-es-Salaam (Lake Victoria region)
WMO
Hazards:
Strong winds
Heavy precipitation
Hazardous waves
(Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria)
Users: general public, disaster management,
media, agriculture and fisheries
Domains:
5E – 55E; 30N – 25S
(for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying
the various severe weather events)
31E – 36E; 2N – 4S
(for the Lake Victoria)
Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP
Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by
TMA, UKMO and DWD
National Met. Centres of: Kenya, Tanzania,
Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, Ethiopia
Started Sept. 2011

8. Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) 2 main components
Warning production
Warning Services
Regional Centre
Global Centres
RSMCs-TC
Global NWP/EPS and
Sat-based products TC
Guidance
Products
(risk/probability)
GDPFS
National Met Centres
(Forecast D / D+5; Bulletins)
SMS; Weather Radio
Systems; Public Web; etc.
General Public
PWS
Disaster Management and Civil Protection
Specific Communication
Systems
Media
; etc.
Radio; TV

9. SWFDP links and synergies
General Public and spec. users (Agriculture, Fisheries, Marine Safety, Aviation, etc.)
Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized Applications
AgM, MMO,
AeM, etc.
Specific Comm. Systems
Flash Flood Guidance
HWR
Disaster Management and Civil Protection
Specific Communication
Systems
Regional Centre
Global Centres
RSMCs-TC
Global NWP/EPS and
Sat-based products TC
Guidance
Products
(risk/probability)
GDPFS
National Met Centres
(Forecast D / D+5; Bulletins)
PWS
WWRP
Research Projects
Satellite Imagery and Tools
WMO SP
SMS; Weather Radio
Systems; Public Web; etc.
General Public
; etc.
Radio; TV
Media
Specific Communication
Systems
Disaster Management and Civil Protection

10. SWFDP – what have we learned?
Factors for success / failures
Credible, reliable, useful warning services
Engagement of forecasters using new NWP/EPS tools
Feedback, reporting, case studies
Continuous cycle improvement, including R&D outputs
Project management (accountability)
Steering by CBS
Accountability of participants (project management team)
Sustaining the « demonstration » of matured projects
Regional ownership (SADC/MASA, EAC), project leaders
Service Delivery and Capacity Building (strategic thrusts)
Concrete results are hard to achieve, or measure
Relations with disaster management, civil protection, media organizations
Visibility of NMHSs

11. SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings
Establish a warnings programme at the NMHSs
Increase lead-time and confidence in warnings and alerts issued
Address high-impacts (flash-flooding, wind damage, near-shore damaging waves), and applications (e.g. AgMet)
Verification
Phase in other developments
Forecasting gaps:
Tropical convection, rapid on-set, localized events
Lack of forecasting tools in the very-short-range (< 12h)
Little or no radar coverage, few real-time observations
Warning services gaps:
Relations disaster management, civil protection, media
Warning criteria, SoP, reach, cultural, quality assurance
Inadequate monitoring, verification
Overall managment of warnings programme

12. SWFDP – Cooperating with Research … incorporating promising research outputs into real-time SWFDP demonstrations …
SWFDP and WWRP
Global Interactive Forecasting System (TIGGE) - Tropical Cyclone forecasting, heavy rain, week-2 predictability
JWG on Forecast Verification Research
WG Nowcasting Research – very short-range forecasting (< 12h)
SERA – Service Delivery

13. SWFDP – paving the way for the future
“ … next decade will continue to bring improvements, especially in …
detailed short-range forecasts, using storm-scale models able to provide skillful predictions of severe weather; …
“… improvement in the usefulness of medium-range forecasts, especially through use of ensemble forecasting;”
- Eugenia Kalnay (2009)
Goal:
To further exploit the use of existing products from NWP centres, without the need (burden) of additional investment in development effort.
Focus on severe weather forecasting because NWP products have become more relevant in providing advanced (lead-time) warnings and is complementary to the role of observational data as the basis for issuing warnings.
Notes:
SWFDP is intended to further the implementation of the GDPFS, and not a R&D initiative.
Will be linked to the development of a WMO NWP Strategy for Developing Countries.
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Thank you!