1 Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) Peter ChenChief, Data-Processing and Forecasting System DivisionWeather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services DepartmentTHORPEX Africa MeetingGeneva8 – 10 May 2012
2 Numerical simulations of the atmosphere “In general, the public is not aware that our daily weather forecasts start out as initial value problems on the major national weather services supercomputers. Numerical weather prediction provides the basic guidance for weather forecasting beyond the first few hours.”Eugenia Kalnay (2003)From: “Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and predictability” Cambridge University Press, 2003, 5th printing 2009
3 Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) WMOVision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries (Cg-XV, 2007)“NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.”WMO Strategic ThrustsImproved Service Quality and Service DeliveryImproved delivery and access to high quality weather, water, related environmental predictions, information, and servicesReduced risks and potential impacts of hazardsStrengthening Capacity Building
4 Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) WMOSWFDP Main GoalsImprove Severe Weather ForecastingImprove lead-time of warningsImprove interaction of NMHSs with users: media, disaster management, civil protection authorities, various socio-economic sectors (e.g. agriculture, fisheries, etc.)“SWFDP provides a practical and beneficial platform forpreparation and dissemination of multi-hazard, early warnings”SWFDP Regional SubprojectsSouthern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria)South Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC Wellington)Eastern Africa (in development, 6 countries; planned start-up 2011)Southeast Asia (in development, 4 countries)Bay of Bengal (in development, 6 countries)
5 SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process Global NWP centres to provide available NWP and EPS products, including in the form of probabilities, cut to the project window frame; Regional centres to interpret information received from global NWP centres, prepare daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, run limited-area model to refine products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs; National Met. Centres maintain responsibility/authority over national warning services, issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; liaise with Disaster Management, and contribute feedback and evaluation of the projectGlobal CentersRSMC PretoriaNMCsDisaster Management Centres5
6 SWFDP – Southern Africa 16 countries, RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Réunion,Met Office UK, NCEP USA, ECMWFExample: SWFDP-Southern Africa web site (RSMC Pretoria)Since 20066
7 SWFDP – Eastern Africa Started Sept. 2011 6 Countries RSMC Nairobi & Regional Forecast Support Centre Dar-es-Salaam (Lake Victoria region)WMOHazards:Strong windsHeavy precipitationHazardous waves(Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria)Users: general public, disaster management,media, agriculture and fisheriesDomains:5E – 55E; 30N – 25S(for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifyingthe various severe weather events)31E – 36E; 2N – 4S(for the Lake Victoria)Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NCEPRegional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported byTMA, UKMO and DWDNational Met. Centres of: Kenya, Tanzania,Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, EthiopiaStarted Sept. 2011
8 Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) 2 main components Warning productionWarning ServicesRegional CentreGlobal CentresRSMCs-TCGlobal NWP/EPS andSat-based productsTCGuidanceProducts(risk/probability)GDPFSNational Met Centres(Forecast D / D+5; Bulletins)SMS; Weather RadioSystems; Public Web; etc.General PublicPWSDisaster Management and Civil ProtectionSpecific CommunicationSystemsMedia; etc.Radio; TV
9 SWFDP links and synergies General Public and spec. users (Agriculture, Fisheries, Marine Safety, Aviation, etc.)Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized ApplicationsAgM, MMO,AeM, etc.Specific Comm. SystemsFlash Flood GuidanceHWRDisaster Management and Civil ProtectionSpecific CommunicationSystemsRegional CentreGlobal CentresRSMCs-TCGlobal NWP/EPS andSat-based productsTCGuidanceProducts(risk/probability)GDPFSNational Met Centres(Forecast D / D+5; Bulletins)PWSWWRPResearch ProjectsSatellite Imagery and ToolsWMO SPSMS; Weather RadioSystems; Public Web; etc.General Public; etc.Radio; TVMediaSpecific CommunicationSystemsDisaster Management and Civil Protection
10 SWFDP – what have we learned? Factors for success / failuresCredible, reliable, useful warning servicesEngagement of forecasters using new NWP/EPS toolsFeedback, reporting, case studiesContinuous cycle improvement, including R&D outputsProject management (accountability)Steering by CBSAccountability of participants (project management team)Sustaining the « demonstration » of matured projectsRegional ownership (SADC/MASA, EAC), project leadersService Delivery and Capacity Building (strategic thrusts)Concrete results are hard to achieve, or measureRelations with disaster management, civil protection, media organizationsVisibility of NMHSs
11 SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings Establish a warnings programme at the NMHSsIncrease lead-time and confidence in warnings and alerts issuedAddress high-impacts (flash-flooding, wind damage, near-shore damaging waves), and applications (e.g. AgMet)VerificationPhase in other developmentsForecasting gaps:Tropical convection, rapid on-set, localized eventsLack of forecasting tools in the very-short-range (< 12h)Little or no radar coverage, few real-time observationsWarning services gaps:Relations disaster management, civil protection, mediaWarning criteria, SoP, reach, cultural, quality assuranceInadequate monitoring, verificationOverall managment of warnings programme
12 SWFDP – Cooperating with Research … incorporating promising research outputs into real-time SWFDP demonstrations …SWFDP and WWRPGlobal Interactive Forecasting System (TIGGE) - Tropical Cyclone forecasting, heavy rain, week-2 predictabilityJWG on Forecast Verification ResearchWG Nowcasting Research – very short-range forecasting (< 12h)SERA – Service Delivery
13 SWFDP – paving the way for the future “ … next decade will continue to bring improvements, especially in …detailed short-range forecasts, using storm-scale models able to provide skillful predictions of severe weather;…“… improvement in the usefulness of medium-range forecasts, especially through use of ensemble forecasting;”- Eugenia Kalnay (2009)Goal:To further exploit the use of existing products from NWP centres, without the need (burden) of additional investment in development effort.Focus on severe weather forecasting because NWP products have become more relevant in providing advanced (lead-time) warnings and is complementary to the role of observational data as the basis for issuing warnings.Notes:SWFDP is intended to further the implementation of the GDPFS, and not a R&D initiative.Will be linked to the development of a WMO NWP Strategy for Developing Countries.Tell us how to fishShow us how to fishFish with usThank you!
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