1. JMA Takayuki MATSUMURA (Forecast Department, JMA) C Asia Air Survey co., ltd New Forecast Technologies for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation 1

2. To protect life and property from natural disasters such as floods, landslides, debris flows, storms, etc. Missions of JMA Development of a Numerical Weather Prediction system Accurate prediction of timing and location of severe weather events Accurate prediction of typhoon tracks Based on physical lowsBeyond several hours Development of a Nowcast system Accurate prediction of timing and location of precipitation Based on a heuristic methodUp to a few hours 2

3. Super-computer Prediction Precipitation, Temperature, Winds.... What is Numerical Weather Prediction ? Schematic illustration of Numerical Model Observation Initial Condition Numerical Model Physical laws 3

4. Current Operational Numerical Models Typhoon model Horizontal Resolution: 24 km Updates: 4 times a day Global model Horizontal Resolution: 60 km Updates: 2 times a day Regional model Horizontal Resolution: 20 km Updates: 2 times a day Mesoscale model Horizontal Resolution: 10 km Updates: 4 times a day 4

5. Initial Condition Numerical Model Requirements for Numerical Weather Prediction Development of models Advanced mesoscale model fully-compressible non-hydrostatic equation, cloud microphysics Use of various observational data Satellites, Wind profiler, Aircraft, Doppler radar,.... Improved Performance Development of data assimilation Advanced assimilation method 5

6. Impact of the New Model New ModelOld Model Rain Rate at the surface resulting from Baiu front at 15 JST, 19 July 2003. Observation Rain Rate (mm hr -1 ) The new model shows better performance as compared to the old model. Mesoscale Model Forecast of Heavy Rainfall 6

7. Observation Data Used in the Analysis A high-resolution model requires dense observations with sufficient accuracy. 7

8. Performance of the Mesoscale Model Precipitation Forecast for Rain-rate at 10 mm / 3 hr Accuracy of precipitation forecasts is represented by an objective index indicating the minimum (0) to the maximum (1). Forecast Skill new satellite data a new model a new assimilation method domestic wind profiler data new satellite data automated aircraft data 8

9. Impact of Horizontal Resolution of the Model 10-km 1.5-km Three-hourly accumulated rainfall for 09 – 12 JST. Maximum rainfall amounts attained over 60 mm/hour. Observed Rain Rate As the horizontal resolution increases, the rain band is well represented. 9

10. Typhoon Positional Error of Typhoon Model Forecasts FT = 72 hours FT = 48 hours FT = 24 hours Forecast errors of typhoon center positions are reduced, especially for longer forecast hours, resulting from model developments. 10

11. Nowcasting of Precipitation NowcastVery Short Range Forecast 1-hour rainfall res.=5km, issued every 30 min up to 6 hours 10-minutes rainfall res.=1km, issued every 10min up to 1 hour nowcast represents localized high rain rates Disaster prevention and mitigation Urban flood caused by a rapidly developing rain cloud 11

12. Future Plan Development of a high-resolution model Horizontal resolution: 2 ~ 5 km Further improvement of Typhoon forecast with new technologies Multi-scale analysis of echo motion for nowcasting Improve the forecasts of severe meteorological phenomena that threaten life and property. 12

13. A role of JMA is to provide accurate forecasts for prevention and mitigation of natural disasters. Enhancement of the numerical weather prediction system and nowcast system is an important task. Summary Development of an advanced mesoscale model Use of various observational data Development of an advanced data assimilation method Improvements in the typhoon track forecasts Development of Very-Short-Range Precipitation forecasts including Nowcasting 13

14. Thank you. Merci. Gracias. Спасибо 14