1. Dan Borchert- Entomologist CPHST/PERAL Raleigh, NC

2. 2 The Purpose of NAPPFAST To assist the CAPS Program determine where and when to survey for invasive pest species To assist the CAPS Program determine where and when to survey for invasive pest species To provide information on pests (potential distribution, etc.) for risk assessment purposes To provide information on pests (potential distribution, etc.) for risk assessment purposes To assist APHIS by providing relevant information in Emergency Response situations To assist APHIS by providing relevant information in Emergency Response situations

3. 3 The Development of NAPPFAST Idea originated at NCSU: Dr. Jack Bailey- method for forecasting peanut diseases in NC and the flexible template for disease modeling- 1990’s Idea originated at NCSU: Dr. Jack Bailey- method for forecasting peanut diseases in NC and the flexible template for disease modeling- 1990’s Dan Fieselmann and Glenn Fowler worked with Dr. Bailey for several years on project development Dan Fieselmann and Glenn Fowler worked with Dr. Bailey for several years on project development Roger Magarey developed the connection between ZedX Inc and NAPPFAST Roger Magarey developed the connection between ZedX Inc and NAPPFAST Dan Borchert joins the NAPPFAST Team Dan Borchert joins the NAPPFAST Team

4. 4 NAPPFAST System Overview Internet-based Pest Prediction System Internet-based Pest Prediction System Biological model (Degree day, Disease Infection, or Multi-function) templates paired with large climate database Biological model (Degree day, Disease Infection, or Multi-function) templates paired with large climate database Produce geo-referenced output maps Produce geo-referenced output maps Designed to assist pest Designed to assist pest survey detection efforts: survey detection efforts: predict when and where predict when and where

5. 5 Development of Risk Maps Risk maps developed for CAPS program Risk maps developed for CAPS program Utilize host and biology information to create risk maps Utilize host and biology information to create risk maps Maps are available for use in development of survey plans Maps are available for use in development of survey plans These are the recognized maps for use in the CAPS program These are the recognized maps for use in the CAPS program Can be found at www.nappfast.org Can be found at www.nappfast.orgwww.nappfast.org

6. 6 CAPS TOP 50 PEST RISK MAPS

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9. 9 Primary Hosts Acreage Divided by Acres per County Secondary Hosts Acreage Divided by Acres per County *0.66 *0.34 + Relative Proportion of Hosts per County 0= No Hosts per county 5= 0.05-0.075 of each acre in that county is composed of host crop 10= 0.75-1.0 of each acre in that county is composed of host crop

10. 10 NAPPFAST Map: Spodoptera litura Five Generations and Inverse of Cold Days

11. 11 Risk Map Spodoptera litura Equal Weighting of Host and NAPPFAST

12. 12 NAPPFAST NAPPFAST Model Creation Model Creation Folder system, but less information Folder system, but less information More Complex More Complex More applicable for extensive users More applicable for extensive users NAPPFAST-MAPVIEW Map Viewer Folder System with details Easy to Navigate More applicable for casual users

13. 13 NAPPFAST Map View Easy, rapid site navigation designed for users interested in quick access to information Easy, rapid site navigation designed for users interested in quick access to information Contains series of “Canned Probability Maps” for approx. 30 pests Contains series of “Canned Probability Maps” for approx. 30 pests User can zoom in, add commodity overlays, county outlines, interstates and cities to map User can zoom in, add commodity overlays, county outlines, interstates and cities to map Converts the custom map to PDF for easy printing Converts the custom map to PDF for easy printing Map View site can be automatically accessed through the GPDD for coincidental pests Map View site can be automatically accessed through the GPDD for coincidental pests Username:aphismap Password:maps2004

14. 14 NAPPFAST MAPVIEW Important Points What models are used to make the maps? What models are used to make the maps? What organisms can be modeled? What organisms can be modeled? What are the different types of maps? What are the different types of maps? Why use different types of maps? Why use different types of maps? How do I read and interpret the maps? How do I read and interpret the maps?

15. 15 NAPPFAST MAPVIEW Important Points What models are used to make the predictive maps in NAPPFAST? What models are used to make the predictive maps in NAPPFAST? Degree Day Degree Day Infection Infection Generic Generic

16. 16 Degree Day Model: Theory “ Phenology and development of most organisms follow a temperature dependent time scale” (Allen 1976) “ Phenology and development of most organisms follow a temperature dependent time scale” (Allen 1976) Attempts to integrate temperature and time started 250 + years ago Attempts to integrate temperature and time started 250 + years ago Development is widely believed to follow a sigmoid shape Development is widely believed to follow a sigmoid shape Dev. Temp.

17. 17 Degree Day Model: Theory Organisms have base developmental temperature- minimum temperature below which no development occurs Organisms have base developmental temperature- minimum temperature below which no development occurs Organisms have set number of units to complete development - physiological time: measured in developmental units (DU) or degree days (DD) Organisms have set number of units to complete development - physiological time: measured in developmental units (DU) or degree days (DD) Parameters established from lab or field studies Parameters established from lab or field studies

18. 18 Degree Day Model Example: Light Brown Apple Moth Example: Light Brown Apple Moth base temperature 7.5 C requires ~640 DD to complete development (egg, larvae, pupae, adult to egg) Degree days are typically calculated from average of high and low temperature for a 24 hour period above the base temperature Degree days are typically calculated from average of high and low temperature for a 24 hour period above the base temperature

19. 19 Degree Day Model Light Brown Apple Moth: Base temperature 7.5 C 640 DD for generation development If average daily temp was 11C: 3.5 DD (11-7.5) are accumulated and it would take 182 days at that temperature to complete development If average daily temp was 20C: 12.5 DD (20-7.5) are accumulated and it would take 51.2 days at that temperature to complete development

20. 20 NAPPFAST MAPVIEW Important Points What models are used to make the maps in NAPPFAST? What models are used to make the maps in NAPPFAST? Degree Day Degree Day Infection Infection

21. 21 Disease Infection Model Plant pathologist describe interactions between pathogen, host and environmental conditions as the disease triangle. Plant pathologist describe interactions between pathogen, host and environmental conditions as the disease triangle.

22. 22 Infection is often the rate limiting step in an epidemic because it requires moisture which is often limited in terrestrial environments Infection can be modeled by a temperature /moisture response function - a mathematical function that describes the response of an organism to temperature and moisture Disease infection model

23. 23 Disease Infection Parameters T min = Min. temperature for infection, o C, T min = Min. temperature for infection, o C, T max = Max. temperature for infection, o C, T max = Max. temperature for infection, o C, T opt = Opt. temperature for infection, o C, T opt = Opt. temperature for infection, o C, W min = Minimum wetness duration requirement, h W min = Minimum wetness duration requirement, h Parameters established in laboratory studies

24. 24 Temperature response function High T opt Low T opt

25. 25 Temperature moisture response function Low T opt High W min High T opt Low W min

26. 26 NAPPFAST MAPVIEW Important Points What models are used to make the maps in NAPPFAST? What models are used to make the maps in NAPPFAST? Degree Day Degree Day Infection Infection Generic- Multi-function Model Generic- Multi-function Model

27. 27 Multi-function Model Allows for construction of many different models using simple logical and mathematical equations: Allows for construction of many different models using simple logical and mathematical equations: (X>A, X and Y, X or Y, X and (Y or Z), X≥A and X≤B, A* exp(B * X), etc.) (X>A, X and Y, X or Y, X and (Y or Z), X≥A and X≤B, A* exp(B * X), etc.)  Some examples used to date are: temperature exclusions (high and or low lethal temperatures), frost free days, and emergence dates

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30. 30 NAPPFAST MAPVIEW Important Points What models are used to make the predictive maps? What models are used to make the predictive maps? What organisms can be modeled? What organisms can be modeled? Which model is used? Which model is used?

31. 31 Modeling- Point to Consider “ A model is always wrong, but it can help you see the truth ” Dr. Fred Gould William Neal Reynolds Professor North Carolina State University Entomology Department

32. 32 NAPPFAST MAPVIEW Important Points What models are used to make the predictive maps? What models are used to make the predictive maps? What organisms can be modeled? What organisms can be modeled? What are the different types of maps? What are the different types of maps?

33. 33 Map Types: History History Maps- A snap shot of information History Maps- A snap shot of information Provides detailed information on the pest for the period of time specified (day, month, or year) Do not provide information about other years occurrence Are often used for validation of models or examining a specific years output

34. 34 June 7 2004 3rd 2nd 1st Egg Adult Pupae 3rd Insect Stage JB Watch Observation

35. 35 June 14 2004 3rd 2nd 1st Egg Adult Pupae 3rd Insect Stage JB Watch Observation

36. 36 Map Types: Probability Probability- Utilizes data from multiple years Probability- Utilizes data from multiple years Information is less detailed, but provides insight into frequency of occurrence through many years for a specific event

37. 37 Probability Maps Allow for spatial examination of a particular stage through multiple years for a specified time period Allow for spatial examination of a particular stage through multiple years for a specified time period i.e. Where is the adult stage most likely to be occurring during the second week (8-14) in June? i.e. Where is the adult stage most likely to be occurring during the second week (8-14) in June? 10 8 86 6 4 4 2 2 0 Frequency of Occurrence JB Watch Observation

38. 38 Probability Map for the Third Week of June 10 8 86 6 4 4 2 2 0 Frequency of Occurrence JB Watch Observation

39. 39 Probability of One Generation > 940 DD

40. 40 Probability of Two Generations > 1580 DD

41. 41 Probability of Three Generations > 2220 DD

42. 42 NAPPFAST MAPVIEW Important Points What models are used to make the maps? What models are used to make the maps? What organisms can be modeled? What organisms can be modeled? What are the different types of maps? What are the different types of maps? Why use different types of maps? Why use different types of maps?

43. 43 Why Different Types? Able to answer different questions? Able to answer different questions? What question are you trying to answer? What question are you trying to answer? Establishment Establishment Risk Risk Time for survey Time for survey Start Start Optimum Optimum Stop Stop

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47. 47 NAPPFAST MAPVIEW Important Points What models are used to make the maps? What models are used to make the maps? What organisms can be modeled? What organisms can be modeled? What are the different types of maps? What are the different types of maps? Why use different types of maps? Why use different types of maps? How do I read and interpret the maps? How do I read and interpret the maps?

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52. 52 Practice Q) Degree day models are based on the relationship between a most organism’s development and ____________? Q) Degree day models are based on the relationship between a most organism’s development and ____________? Q) Infection models are used to model __________? Q) Infection models are used to model __________? Q) In NAPPFAST, probability maps and history maps are the two types of maps generated, describe briefly how the maps are different in the type of data used and displayed. Q) In NAPPFAST, probability maps and history maps are the two types of maps generated, describe briefly how the maps are different in the type of data used and displayed. Q) Two different maps generated using degree day models are generation emergence and generation potential. What is the difference between the two and how can each be utilized in survey and detection efforts? Q) Two different maps generated using degree day models are generation emergence and generation potential. What is the difference between the two and how can each be utilized in survey and detection efforts? Q) The disease triangle is composed of susceptible host, pathogen and favorable conditions. NAPPFAST models what component of the disease triangle? Q) The disease triangle is composed of susceptible host, pathogen and favorable conditions. NAPPFAST models what component of the disease triangle?

53. 53 Practice Q) Disease infection models have maps generated for historical data, monthly probability and yearly probability. What are the main differences and how can they be utilized in survey detection efforts? Q) Disease infection models have maps generated for historical data, monthly probability and yearly probability. What are the main differences and how can they be utilized in survey detection efforts? Q. For your state or region (or one of your choosing), using an insect and a disease give specific examples of when you would survey for them and why. For example: apple scab in NC the month of June has high probability of 3 or more infection days and high probability of 6 or more infection days and relatively high probability of 9 or more infection days. There may be more than 1 month with high levels, use your judgment and reasoning to defend your selection. You may want to consider crop stage susceptibility as part of your answer. Q. For your state or region (or one of your choosing), using an insect and a disease give specific examples of when you would survey for them and why. For example: apple scab in NC the month of June has high probability of 3 or more infection days and high probability of 6 or more infection days and relatively high probability of 9 or more infection days. There may be more than 1 month with high levels, use your judgment and reasoning to defend your selection. You may want to consider crop stage susceptibility as part of your answer. Q. In 2003, how many infection days were there for blackberry rust in coastal Oregon and Washington State? Q. In 2003, how many infection days were there for blackberry rust in coastal Oregon and Washington State? Q. Where is the climate most suitable for one or more infection days for Gladiolus rust in January: Q. Where is the climate most suitable for one or more infection days for Gladiolus rust in January:

54. 54 Summary NAPPFAST is a tool that may assist you do your job as a PSS NAPPFAST is a tool that may assist you do your job as a PSS Depending on your need and interests- information may be already available on MAPVIEW Depending on your need and interests- information may be already available on MAPVIEW If your focus changes to need more information NAPPFAST is flexible If your focus changes to need more information NAPPFAST is flexible

55. 55 Questions? Dan Borchert daniel.m.borchert@aphis.usda.govUSDA/APHIS/CPHST/PERAL 1730 Varsity Drive Suite 300 Raleigh, NC 27606 919-855-7545