1. Sergio Persoglia OGS, Italy CO2GeoNet Network Manager Energy efficiency: is it enough for fighting the Global Warming ? The role of CO 2 Geological Storage now and in the post-Kyoto scenario Eco-innovation – opportunities and challenges

2. There is a wide scientific consensus on Global Warming Impacts of Global Warming September 2002- purple line is the 30 year average ice cap minimum extent 300300 800800 ppm CO 2 Riebersell et al 2000 Caldera & Wickett 2003 It is not just Climate Change CO 2 is acidifying our oceans and will inflict severe ecological and economic damage later this century and in the next September 1979September 2005 Eco-innovation – opportunities and challenges

3. XX° century, exceptional warming: +0,6°C ; + 2°C on Arctic region Antarctic: +3,5°C since 1945; important collapses (ex: 3250 Km2 in 2002) Arctic: -40 % ice shell since 1945 In Italy: +1,4°C since 1950 80 % of the world glaciers and permafrost melt: - 8cm/y in Siberia, and 1,6 to 3,3°C in Alaska since 1980 Ocean warming (+1°C around NZ in 100 years): absorption reduced Ocean level: 1,5 to 2 mm/y during the XX° century, 3 mm/y today Biodiversity threatened by rapid change. Ex France: +0,9°C in one century = shifting of meteo conditions 150 m higher or 180 km northward. Consequences observed on fauna, flora, agriculture, fish … Increase of extreme events 2025: 75% population in a 60 km distance from coastlines Observations confirm reality of climate change and future impacts Eco-innovation – opportunities and challenges

4. Global Warming is not new but …. during a mans life there are changes that happened in the past on geologic scale Mean temperature on the ice surface in Antarctica (hist.) and CO 2 concentrations (in yellow). Both are correlated with the deviation of Earth orbit (in blue). From about 1960, an high peak Eco-innovation – opportunities and challenges

5. Climate observations confirm anthropogenic contribution Eco-innovation – opportunities and challenges

6. The production of CO 2 cannot be avoided (because intrinsically related to the use of hydrocarbons) Even though the development of renewable energy sources, hydrocarbons will remain the main energy source, passing from 87 % to 89 % in 2030. All projections indicate an increment of about 65 % of energy demand in the period 2000-2030. This will be mainly related to the growing of people having access to energy, while energy pro capite (in red) has been almost stabilized from the Seventies Eco-innovation – opportunities and challenges

8. Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate problems for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies S. Pacala and R. Socolow (Princeton University) Stabilization curve at 550 ppm CO 2 in the atmosphere A wedge represents an activity that reduces emissions to the atmosphere that starts at zero to-day and increases linearly until it accounts for 1 GtC/year of reduced carbon emissions in 50 years: It thus represents a cumulative total of 25 GtC of reduced emissions over 50 years. Eco-innovation – opportunities and challenges

9. Some Options: increase efficiency in cars / buildings Efficient vehicles increase fuel economy for 2 billion cars (roughly four times as many as to-day) from 30 to 60 mpg Reduced use of vehicles decrease car travel for 2 billion 30 mpg cars from 10.000 to 5.000 miles per year Efficient buildings cut carbon emissions by one-fourth in buildings and appliances projected for 2054 (energy-efficient space heating and cooling, water heating, lighting and refrigeration in residential and commercial buildings). About half of potential savings are in developing countries Eco-innovation – opportunities and challenges

10. Some Options: power plants efficiency / fuel shifting Efficient baseload coal plants produce twice todays coal power output at 60% instead of 40% efficiency (compared with 32% today) Gas baseload power for coal base load power replace 1400 GW 50% efficient coal plants with gas plants (four times the current production of gas-based power) Nuclear power for coal power add 700 GW (twice the current capacity). Phase out of nuclear power creates the need for another half wedge Eco-innovation – opportunities and challenges

11. Some Options: renewable energies Wind power for coal power add 2 million 1-MW-peak windmills (50 times the current capacity) occupying 30 million ha on land or offshore Photovoltaic power for coal power add 2000 GW-peak PV (700 times the current capacity) on 2 million ha Wind H 2 in fuel-cell car for gasoline in hybrid car add 4 million 1-MW-peak windmills (100 times the current capacity) Eco-innovation – opportunities and challenges

12. Some Options: biomass / forestation / soils management Biomass fuel for fossil fuels add 100 times the current Brazil or U.S. ethanol production, with use of 250 million ha (one sixth of the world cropland) Reduced deforestation, plus reforestation and new plantations decrease tropical deforestation to zero instead of 0,5 GtC/year, and establish 300 Mha new tree plantations (twice the current rate) Agricultural soils management by 1995, conservation tillage practices had been adopted for 110 million hectares of the worlds 1.600 million ha of cropland. If these techniques could be applied to all cropland, half to one wedge could be saved. Eco-innovation – opportunities and challenges

13. Some Options: capture of CO 2 and geological storage Capture CO 2 at baseload power plant (coal, natural gas, synfuels) introduce CCS at 800 GW coal or 1600 GW natural gas introduce CCS at plants producing 250 Mt H 2 /year from coal or 500 Mt H 2 /year from natural gas (compared with 40 Mt H 2 /year today from all sources) Apply geological storage at large scale create 3500 Sleipner 20-500 % Eco-innovation – opportunities and challenges

14. SNOHVIT Some Options: capture of CO 2 and geological storage Sleipner is the most important project actually running (in the North Sea) Eco-innovation – opportunities and challenges

15. EC supported studies on CCS in the last three FWPs Capture AZEPResearch on a new chemical process for capture of CO2 from combustion gases in power plant GRACEResearch on processes for capture of CO2 from non-power producing plant (refineries, etc.) CASTOREvaluation and optimisation of post-combustion capture techniques ENCAPEnhanced capture of CO2 ISSCInnovative in-situ CO2 capture technology for solid fuel gasification Sequestration GESTCOStudy involving most geological surveys and related organisations to assess the sequestration potential in Europe CO2STOREInvestigates four new potential cases for CO2 reservoirs, mainly on land, with reservoir simulations and geo-chemical reactions to develop final-fate prediction models NASCENTStudy of naturally-occurring CO2 reservoirs to establish the mechanisms that ensure retention of CO2 RECOPOLA larger scale demonstration project in a Polish coal field CO2SINKIn-situ R&D laboratory for capture and sequestration of CO2 CASTOR Development and validation, in public/private partnerships, of all the innovative technologies to store CO2 CO2GEONETNetwork of Excellence on Geological Storage of CO2 GEOCAPACITYMapping of emission, infrastructure and potential CO2 storage sites in South and Eastern Europe. Development of international cooperation especially with other CSLF countries beginning with China (later with India and Russia) Seq. monitoring WEIBURNSupport the European teams monitoring the CO2 used for EOR in the well-documented Weyburn oil field in Canada SACS2Support of European teams monitoring the behaviour of CO2 injected in the Sleipner project in the North Sea CO2REMOVEAssessment, over an integrated portfolio of storage sites, of methods for base-line site evaluation, monitoring of storage and possible well and surface leakages, new tolls to predict and model long term storage behaviour and risks Networking CO2NETThematic Network facilitating the development of CO2 capture and storage as a safe, technically feasible, socially acceptable mitigation option Specific support action INCA-CO2This action aims at strengthening European excellence by providing stakeholders support for the international forums; establishing international relations with international projects & programs; providing a coherent view on international activities for input in policy Eco-innovation – opportunities and challenges

16. Launched April 2004, duration 5 years, 13 Research Partners CO 2 GeoNet – the European NoE Denmark Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland – GEUS France Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et Minieres – BRGM Institute Francais du Petrole – I FP Germany Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources – BGR Italy Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale – OGS Università di Roma La Sapienza, Dip. Scienze della Terra – URS Netherlands Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research – TNO NorwayNorwegian Institute for Water Research – NIVA Stiftelsen Rogalandsforskning – RF SINTEF Petroleumsforskning AS – SPR UKHeriot-Watt University – HWU Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine – IMPERIAL Natural Environment Research Council-British Geological Survey – BGS (Coordinator) To be THE European authoritative body for technical, impartial high quality information on geological storage of CO2 Strengthen European Research Area (ERA) Align & harness national research programmes Pave the way for the next generation of researchers Mission CO 2 GeoNet is the largest Virtual Institute on CO2 geological storage in the world … and it is European Eco-innovation – opportunities and challenges