1. 5/16/2015The NEED Project: 30 Years of Energy Education1 The Basics of Climate Change

2. 1 A natural “greenhouse effect” makes life possible on earth Without them, the average surface temperature would be about 5 o F/- 15 o C CO 2 and other “greenhouse gases” slow down heat transfer

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4. 2 39% increase Now at 390 parts per million (ppm) Levels of CO 2 have risen substantially since the industrial revolution National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory Global Monitoring Division http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

5. 3 0.74 o F/ 0.41 o C rise since the industrial revolution Ocean temperatures have risen by 1 o F/ 0.55 o C Global temperatures have risen Since the Industrial Revolution. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fourth Assessment Report, November, 2007

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7. 4 A Few Examples: Increase in extreme precipitation events Melting of ice caps and glaciers Rising sea level Some predicted effects of climate change are observable today. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fourth Assessment Report, November, 2007

8. Our Problem to Solve by 2050 The NEED Project: 30 Years of Energy Education8 Energy demand to double worldwide by 2050 Need to cut CO 2 emissions in half by 2050 x2 Energy Demand :2 - CO 2 Emissions

9. Climate Reports 5/16/20159 Some Examples of Well Recognized Climate Data And Reports

10. Climate Reports Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/contents.html National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate: http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-3/final-report/default.htm Other NOAA Climate Change Reports: http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/default.htm U.S. Global Change Research Program Global Climate Change Impacts in the US (2009): http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/previous-assessments/global- climate-change-impacts-in-the-us-2009 Other USGCRP Reports: http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts

11. Write a description of the greenhouse effect. Science Notebook

12. Mitigating Climate Change Carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning are projected to double in the next 50 years. This would lead to a more than tripling of atmospheric CO 2 since pre-industrial time. This slide and the following slides use information provided by the Princeton University Climate Mitigation Initiative (CMI)

13. To provide long-term climate stability, many environmental scientists recommend stabilizing CO 2 concentrations at 450-500 ppm. Mitigating Climate Change

14. Pre-industrial Present Forecast Threshold 2100 (current trend) 280 ppm 390 ppm 500 ppm 750 ppm CO 2 Concentrations

15. To reach this goal over the next 50 years, it is necessary to keep our future emissions at today’s levels…. …To maintain this level, further emissions reductions are required after 2060. 500 ppm CO 2

16. Keeping emissions flat for 50 years will require trimming projected carbon output by roughly 8 billion tons per year by 2060, keeping a total of ~175 billion tons of carbon from entering the atmosphere Mitigating Climate Change

17. Eight “wedges” 20602005 14 7 1955 0 Currently projected path Flat path Historical emissions 1.9  2105 16 GtC/y 8 GtC/y O A “wedge” is any strategy that eliminates 1 billion tons of CO 2 emissions per year. An example is doubling the current average fuel economy of our cars. Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year

18. Four Kinds of Wedges “E” - Electricity “T” – Transportation “H” – Heat “B” - Biostorage T=5 E=6 B=3 H=5 LIMITS Assumptions and Calculations for all Wedges can be found at http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/calculations.php http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/calculations.php

19. Transportation Efficiency Double the efficiency of all cars in 2060 from 30 mpg to 60 mpg. T A wedge would be achieved if we…

20. Transportation Conservation Halve the number of miles driven by the world’s cars by 2060. T A wedge would be achieved if we…

21. Efficiency in Buildings Cut total building carbon emissions by 25% by 2060. A wedge would be achieved if we… HE

22. Electricity Generation Efficiency Double the efficiency (using today’s average) of all coal- fired power plants by 2060. E A wedge would be achieved if we…

23. CCS with Coal or Natural Gas Electricity Apply CCS to 800 large coal or 1,600 large natural gas power plants. E A wedge would be achieved if we…

24. Hydrogen Fuel Cell Applications

25. Hydrogen Production from Natural Gas Steam Methane Reforming (SMR)Process –Gas is pressurized to about 360 psi –Steam at 850 o c is added –The mixture is passed over a catalyst, such as nickel CH 4 + H 2 0 (steam) H 2 + CO + CO 2 catalyst

26. CCS with Hydrogen from Natural Gas By 2060, we increase the production of hydrogen by 10 times and apply CCS during production. HT A wedge would be achieved if…

27. What are Synfuels? Coal is heated and combined with steam and oxygen Coal is heated and combined with steam and oxygen Carbon monoxide and hydrogen are released and can be processed to make a liquid fuel Carbon monoxide and hydrogen are released and can be processed to make a liquid fuel Allows use of a domestic resource to fuel gasoline and diesel vehicles Allows use of a domestic resource to fuel gasoline and diesel vehicles Coal-based synfuels create 2x the CO 2 emissions of petroleum-based fuels Coal-based synfuels create 2x the CO 2 emissions of petroleum-based fuels

28. CCS Synfuels Capture the carbon emissions from 180 large synfuel plants by 2060. HT A wedge would be achieved if we…

29. Electricity-Switch from Coal to Natural Gas Replace 1,400 large coal plants with natural gas plants by 2060. E A wedge would be achieved if we…

30. Nuclear Electricity Replace coal plants with triple the world’s current capacity of nuclear power. E A wedge would be achieved if we…

31. Wind Electricity Replace coal plants with 10 times today’s wind capacity by 2060. E A wedge would be achieved if we…

32. Solar Electricity Replace coal plants with 100 times today’s solar electric capacity. E A wedge would be achieved if we…

33. What is Electrolysis? Process that separates hydrogen from water Process that separates hydrogen from water Requires electricity Requires electricity More energy intensive than SMR, but can utilize low carbon energy sources More energy intensive than SMR, but can utilize low carbon energy sources

34. Wind Hydrogen Increase today’s wind capacity by 26 times to generate hydrogen via electrolysis. The hydrogen would allow us to replace gasoline vehicles with fuel cell vehicles. E A wedge would be achieved if we…

35. Biofuels Increase today’s ethanol production by about 28 times, and make it sustainable. This production must come entirely from sugarcane, not corn. HT A wedge would be achieved if we…

36. Forest Storage Halt global deforestation by 2060. A wedge would be achieved if we… B

37. Soil Storage Apply carbon management strategies to all of the world’s crop lands. A wedge would be achieved if we… B

38. Wedge Limits Total budget of 12 climate bucks In some cases, the 2 nd time you use a wedge its cost increases See the Wedge Table for all limits T=5 E=6 B=3 H=5 LIMITS

39. Specific Wedge Limits You can only use 1 of each of these: – Transportation Conservation – Transportation Efficiency – Electricity Generation Efficiency – Soil Storage Efficiency in Buildings is ½ H + ½ T In some cases have a choice of sector when you use a wedge: – CCS Hydrogen from Natural Gas,CCS Synfuels, Wind Hydrogen,Biofuels

40. Wedge Colors E = Pink H = Yellow T = Blue B = Green 5/16/2015The NEED Project40

41. Wedge Poster Session What were the most important strategies you used in your solution? What was the hardest decision you had to make? Were there any disagreements in your group? I see you chose a ____ wedge. Did you consider the ______issues associated with that wedge?