1. Cities of tomorrow - Challenges seen from cities and regions Brussels, DG Regio 25 June 2010

2. Structure of the presentation - Objective of the research and methodology - Preliminary remarks - the « usual suspects » - the « experts » - some « space oddities »

3. Objective of the research and methodolgy Provide a synthetic overview of: 1.Challenges 2.Visions (including underlying values) …. that cities or other policy actors dealing with urban issues have identified and use as guidance for their policies. … based on literature review, databases and contacts with professional networks, city associations and public bodies.

4. Preliminary remarks - Work in progress: we do not have the necessary insights yet to come up with a fine-tuned view of the lanscape of urban foresight exercises - Very large and dynamic field of research if one does not exclude cities working on strategic planning and / or on sustainable development focused initiatives (e.g. Agenda 21). Your inputs are welcome ;o) - There is a political bias to the whole approach that has to be taken into account: urban foresight must always be translated from words to deeds and one must often distinguish the hidden challenges behind the normative documents

5. The usual suspects ?!? « Why would you kill the Mayor? » ?!?

6. The usual suspects Hell never be able to stop pollution and increase energy efficiency, let alone traffic

7. The usual suspects He wouldnt give me a job, not even a decent training. Just because I am a refugee…

8. The usual suspects Cant handle the digital transition! Well never get broadband fast enough

9. The usual suspects The guys a joke in front of foreign investors and international banks

10. The usual suspects Hes just too old to rule !

11. The usual suspects And, by the Way, when do we get our Guggenheim?

12. The experts

13. Sustainability and environmental issues (e.g. Malmö, Kopenhagen, Stockholm, Freiburg, Bekerich, Besançon…) But how do we cope with larger scales of intervention?

14. Technology and knowledge regions, developing foresight in a rather systemic view, smartly combining Lisbon-authorised variables: But how does it benefit the whole of the (urban) population? Insular regions in a Knowledge Economy The experts BMW 2025 (Ireland) Manchester as a Knowledge Capital Linz 21 (Austria) Istambul digital city programme

15. The experts Knowledge Region Competitive Region Innovative Region A Region with a quality of life The 4 panels of BMW 2025 foresight exercise

16. The experts Ageing issue: Bretagne (« beautiful grey » scenario), Les Sables dOlonne, Gijon, UK, many touristic cities facing a significant raise in their elederly populations But one finds, in Europe, very few cities thinking about migrations in another meaning than « how to limit it»?

17. The experts Employment and social cohesion issues: a city such as Brussels faces rates above 40% when it comes to unemployment of « immigrant » young men and woman. Cities tend to invest in infrastructure and urban regeneration to tackle alltogether employment, social segragation and poverty issue: Gent, Belfast, San Sebastian, Sofia, Bratislava, … This strategy is being widely supported by ERDF and examples are numerous. Some cities focus on local participation of inhabitants through these: Reykjavik, Jelgava (Latvia), Brussels. But nice buildings and refurbished city centres tend to attract higher revenues (gentrification) and chase poverty out of the city, how far?

18. The experts Major cultural business cards for secondary cities: Louvre-Lens, Pompidou-Metz, Calatrava-Liège, European cultural capitals, … But how does it generate lasting effects?

19. Some space oddities

20. Waterworld - (> 70 % of the World urban population lives by the coast)

21. Waterworld - The Randstadt Holland has developed a scenario around a flooded Holland and thought about building a new Schipol in the middle of the sea. - UK foresight ordered a flood and coastal defence foresight - Some cities, Jerusalem being one of them, anticipate water shortages

22. Breaking the walls Border cities / regions envisage their future in a regional context which tend to erase existing borders: effective examples can be found in Basel, Lille, Luxembourg, Achen, Saragosse…

23. Tournai Lille Valenciennes Mons Peruwelz Ath Enghien Tourcoing Comines- Warneton Roubaix Towards Brussels Lessines Leuze Towards Mons, Namur, Liège Towards Bruges Towards Dunkerque, London and Paris Mouscron Breaking the walls Courtrai Antoing Beloeil Bernissart Brugelette Chièvres Brunehaut Celles Ellezelles Flobecq Estaimpuis Frasnes-les-Anvaing Mont-de-lEnclus Pecq Rumes Silly With a familiar debate on the connexion between major poles and secondary cities… How which grounds do we organise metropolitan cooperation?

24. Metropolis or micropolis? Several large and middle-sized urban agglomerations: - aim at becoming THE growth / innovation pole of the region, clearly competing with close or further neighbours (Valenciennes, Manchester, Charleroi, Ruhr cities…) in what is sometimes the latest (and sometimes promising) attempt to achieve effective industrial transition. - want to limit urban sprawl and periurbanisation: Montréal, Lyons, Rennes, Amsterdam, several Scandinavian capitals… While others try to limit urban exodus or revenue (Brussels) and population decrease (North of France). Shrinking or decreasing perspectives are often use as a worst- case scenario, though interesting when combined with de- growth / peak oil / resource shrinking alternatives.

25. Slumdog Millionnaires? In some cities, and in a more structured way in France, urban foresight has been imported at the level of neighbourhoods (« sensible urban areas » being the colourful label) in order to foster new visions for deprived areas of the cities. These exercises have put forward a set of interesting issues beyond security and housing: - poverty circuits, displacement effects - role of women - social times and social places - coexisting value systems (Unfortunately?), these exercises find it difficult to attract public and political interest unless riots emerge...

26. Slumdog Millionnaires?

27. Independence Day ? - Burning Breizh (Bretagne / Brittany 2040) - Flanders Future - The Basque Country (F) and its historical claim for being a department - Scotlands Future (more devolution) - … More of a wildcard in several future exercises, mainly pointing at hopes and expectations for a stronger Europe of the Regions

28. Thank you ! vancutsem.michael@institut-destree.eu