1. The Last Lecture

2. outline Exam Review – Cases – Readings – themes Final words

3. Key elements Forces at work framework Institutions and governance Interest Groups First Nations International Context US Influence Policy Cycle – Policy Formulation – Decision-making and Policy Design – Implementation New Values: Carbon and Bio-energy Comparisons Cases – Mountain Pine Beetle – Midterm timber supply – tenure – Great Bear Rainforest – Forest carbon – Forest practices regulation November 24, 2014 3

4. Final Exam X Celebration of Learning December 3 – 3:30-5:30 FSC 1005 2 hour exam All material from policy agenda+ formulation forward Responsible for themes for whole course (final list discussed in class Thursday) Responsible for specifics of readings and lectures only from decision-making (October 28) forward except section of Chap 1 ISOS on policy cycle 4

5. Final Exam X Celebration of Learning December 3 – 3:30-5:30 FSC 1005 2 hour exam All material from policy agenda+ formulation forward Responsible for themes for whole course (final list discussed in class Thursday) Responsible for specifics of readings and lectures only from decision-making (October 28) forward except section of Chap 1 ISOS on policy cycle George Office hours – Today 1-2 – Monday, Tuesday 10-12; 1-3 Gabrielle Office hours – Today 12:30 - 3pm – Friday 10am - 1pm 5

6. readings 1.Benjamin Cashore, George Hoberg, Michael Howlett, Jeremy Rayner, and Jeremy Wilson, In Search of Sustainability, pp. 3-7, 17, 20-29 (reading packet) 2.Marty Luckert, David Haley, and George Hoberg, Policies for Sustainably Managing Canada’s Forests, pp. 97-102 3.Forest Practices Board, A Decade in Review: Observations on Regulation of Forest and Range Practices in British Columbia, 4.David Weimer and Aidan Vining, Policy Analysis: Concepts and Practice, pp. 274-280. (reading packet) 5.Karen Price, Audrey Roburn, Andy MacKinnon, “Ecosystem-based management in the Great Bear Rainforest” 6.Auditor General of BC, An Audit of Carbon Neutral Government, March 2013, Note: you are responsible for the general issues and the details of the Darkwoods case, but not responsible for the details of the Encana case. 7.Constance McDermott, et al Global Environmental Forest Policies: An International Comparison, Chapter 3, “Canada and the United States.” 8.Marty Luckert, David Haley, and George Hoberg, Policies for Sustainably Managing Canada’s Forests, Chapter 6

7. Analytical Framework: Forces at work in natural resources policy 7 environment governance markets policies actions Consequences Biophysical characteristics Resource characteristics who decides who participates at what level Prices Exchange rates Supply and demand Trade restrictions

8. Institutions and Governance Policies are produced through governance processes, influenced by environment and markets. Governance addresses who decides, who participates, at what level of government, and with which instruments. Canadian forest policy is dominated by the provincial level of government. BC’s government is dominated by the executive, particularly the premier. Courts have played a limited role in forest policy, with the exception of Aboriginal issues, because of the discretionary nature of BC statutes. Institutional design matters because the balance of preferences may change as the location of authority changes November 24, 2014 8

9. Actors: Strategies and Resources Actors in the policy process have interests and resources, and adopt strategies designed to best use those resources in pursuit of their interests Politicians are primarily driven by electoral incentives, making public opinion a significant constraint on government action Business control over investment gives it a structural advantage Public opinion is far more influential on policy makers when it is salient Environmentalists have effectively used market- oriented strategies to increase their power November 24, 2014 9

10. First Nations First Nations have effectively used the courts to increase their power The BC government has undergone a profound shift in relations towards First Nations, from active repression through resistance and now apparently sincere efforts at reconciliation November 24, 2014 10

11. International Influences Changes in international markets and technology have undercut BC’s comparative advantage A combination of globally valued resources and reliance on trade makes BC highly vulnerable to international influences Certification has increased the influence of private standard-setting organizations but there is little evidence of on-the-ground impacts November 24, 2014 11

12. US Influence US trade pressures have pushed costs up and constrained BC’s policy sovereignty. BC’s market-oriented forest policy reforms were strongly influenced by trade pressures by the United States November 24, 2014 12

13. 5 stage Policy Cycle Model 13 Agenda-Setting Policy Formulation Decisionmaking Policy Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation

14. Policy Cycle Agenda-setting Issues get on the government agenda through a confluence of problem and politics streams November 24, 2014 14

15. Policy Cycle Policy Formulation Policy formulation involves both “thinking” (analysis) and “talking” (consultation with stakeholders) The best argument explicitly addresses an opponents’ strongest claim and addresses it with evidence and reason November 24, 2014 15

16. Policy Cycle: Decision-making Because of the challenges to conflict resolution, policy is often made without clarifying objectives Because of limited resources, rational decision-making is usually not feasible A major challenge for forest policy making is designing policies to accommodate spatial diversity Forest practices regulation in BC relies on a combination of vague performance objectives, practice requirements, and planning requirements. In comparative terms, BC’s regulatory framework is highly stringent. 16

17. Implementation Challenges There is a tension between factors for success in decision-making (agreement) and implementation (clarity and specificity) The meaning is in the detail: it is impossible to understand how policy affects the distribution of values without understanding the details of policy design and implementation. November 24, 2014 17

18. Emerging Values: Carbon, Bio-energy BC’s forests can potentially contribute to greenhouse gas reductions, but immense complexity and uncertainty make effective and efficient policy design very difficult Forest bioenergy in BC is likely to be a significant, economical source of energy only as a residual product of the forest sector. November 24, 2014 18

19. Comparative context In comparative context, BC forest policy is relatively distinct in a number of ways, among them: a high level of government ownership, the limited role for the federal government, and a focus on natural forest management in old growth forests. November 24, 2014 19

20. From next Tuesday Potential beneficial policy changes are frequently thwarted by intellectual, political, and/or institutional obstacles. Path dependence increases the costs of change. November 24, 2014 20

21. Key elements Forces at work framework Institutions and governance Interest Groups First Nations International Context US Influence Policy Cycle – Policy Formulation – Decision-making and Policy Design – Implementation New Values: Carbon and Bio-energy Comparisons Cases – Mountain Pine Beetle – Midterm timber supply – tenure – Great Bear Rainforest – Forest carbon – Forest practices regulation November 24, 2014 21

22. Closing thoughts The meaning is in the detail

23. Last word: Critical Thinking Complexity Facts and values Steps: – Identify argument – Values underlying – Facts Be respective of value differences – Be conscious of “motivated reasoning” Mobilize evidence Persuasion requires appealing to their values Steps in Policy Analysis Define problem Criteria for evaluation Identify multiple alternatives Outcomes/consequences of alternatives Compare/tradeoff Recommended decision