1. Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions and the EU ETS Based on research by Kevin Anderson & Alice Bows Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering

2. My position … Ambivalent about flying, driving, nuclear power etc. Concerned about climate change … and the science is very clear here - we need an urgent & radical reduction in our carbon dioxide emissions if we are to avoid dangerous climate change

3. Talk outline The Climate Change Context What is dangerous climate change? Reframing the debate … from long term targets to emission pathways Its energy demand stupid The Critical role of Aviation (& shipping …) Aviation growth within a low carbon pathway? Responding to the challenge … the EU ETS – too little too late?

4. The Climate Change Context

5. What is dangerous climate change? UK & EU define this as 2 C Links to total quantity of CO 2 in atmosphere - measured in parts-per-million by volume (ppmv) Currently 380ppmv (~430 CO 2 e) & increasing 2-3ppmv p.a. - 280ppmv before industrial revolution Still feasible to keep below 450ppmv CO 2 (~500 CO 2 e) - i.e. 70% chance of exceeding 2 C 50% chance of exceeding 3 C

6. What are the correct emission targets for 2 C ? UK & EU have long term reduction targets - e.g. UKs 60% reduction in CO 2 by 2050 But CO 2 stays in atmosphere for approx. 100years Hence, todays emissions add to yesterdays & will be added to by tomorrows So, focus on long-term targets is very misleading

7. the final % reduction in carbon has little relevance to avoiding dangerous climate change (e.g. 2 C) Put bluntly … What is important are the cumulative emissions of carbon

8. How does this scientifically-credible way of thinking, alter the challenge we face?

9. A bank-account analogy We know:.. how much money we have in the bank between 2000-2050 (the carbon budget)

10. ~ 4.8 billion tonnes of carbon between 2000-2050 the UKs budget is For a 30% chance of avoiding dangerous climate change

11. 1.What are the emissions between 2000 & today? 2.What emissions are we locked into in the immediate future? From this two questions arise

12. … emissions between 2000-2006 were ~ 1.2 billion tonnes of carbon … i.e. weve used ¼ of our permitted emissions for 50 years in around 6 years! Answer 1

13. Looking at this graphically … Answer 2

14. Plot data from 2000 to 2006 UKs fair contribution to avoiding dangerous climate change

15. Plot data from 2000 to 2006 Dip due to September 11th UKs fair contribution to avoiding dangerous climate change

16. What about the next 6 years … with more aviation & shipping UKs fair contribution to avoiding dangerous climate change

17. … emissions are likely to rise UKs fair contribution to avoiding dangerous climate change

18. 4.8 billion tonnes Carbon in the bank But we only have UKs fair contribution to avoiding dangerous climate change

19. … locking the UK into dramatic annual carbon reductions from around 2012-2032 UKs fair contribution to avoiding dangerous climate change

20. ~ 9% p.a. reduction UKs fair contribution to avoiding dangerous climate change

21. What does this pathway say about emission policies ?

22. most emissions are released in next 15 yrs 2006 UKs fair contribution to avoiding dangerous climate change

23. demand supply & demand 2006 UKs fair contribution to avoiding dangerous climate change

24. The Critical Role of Aviation Emissions

25. … how does aviation fit into this pathway?

26. UK aviation trends 1990 – 2005

29. September 11 th events impact growth mean annual growth 7% pa Continuation of old trends

30. UK aviation trends 1990 – 2005 ~11 MtC 2006 Aviation CO 2 is ~7% of UK emissions over ½ that from cars and growing much faster

31. Looking at this growth graphically …

32. 11 MtC 2006 Aviation within UKs fair contribution to avoiding dangerous climate change

33. 11 MtC 2006 if emissions grow at 5% until 2012 (30% lower than historical mean) reducing to 3% from 2012-2050 (60% lower than historical mean) Aviation within UKs fair contribution to avoiding dangerous climate change

34. 15MtC 2012 Aviation within UKs fair contribution to avoiding dangerous climate change

35. 17MtC 2012 25MtC 2030 Aviation within UKs fair contribution to avoiding dangerous climate change

36. 25MtC 2030 over 60% of UK emissions 15MtC 2012 Aviation within UKs fair contribution to avoiding dangerous climate change

37. Alternatively, if 7% continues until 2030… 56MtC 2030 Aviation within UKs fair contribution to avoiding dangerous climate change

38. … and this doesn't include uplift factors

39. Omitting aviation negates the value of emission targets Many problems for aviation: - Long lifetime of aircraft (2 nd hand market) - Kerosene lock-in for 30-60 years (bio-kerosene?) - No rapidly penetrating step change technology - Airport expansion stimulates unsustainable growth - Additional climate warming effects Interim conclusions

40. … and then theres shipping

41. Responding to the Challenge: EU ETS – too little too late?

42. Principal mechanism proposed for Aviation meeting its climate change challenge is the price signal arising from EU ETS

43. Tyndall examined the price signal for a suite of Aviation-ETS scenarios (Aviation in a Low Carbon EU - www.tyndall.ac.uk)

44. … used a set of what if assumptions: range of carbon prices 50, 100 & 300 per tonne of CO 2 applied over different time frames 2012-2016; 2017-2030; 2031-2050 a range of baselines 1990, 2000 & 2005

45. Assume all costs are passed onto passengers …

46. Carbon price London – Barcelona London - Washington London - Australia 50-1002-1510-6040-120 Carbon supplement per passenger at start of ETS

47. Carbon price London – Barcelona London - Washington London - Australia 30015-4070-155140-310 Carbon supplement per passenger by 2017

48. Aviation conclusions Todays aviation emissions are significant Current aviation growth cannot be reconciled with the 2°C commitment … little/no aviation growth is viable in a 450ppmv carbon budget Moratorium on airport expansion prior to including aviation within EU ETS Aviation is very likely to remain a privileged sector An order of magnitude increase in carbon price is necessary An early baseline is essential Indirect issues must be considered Additional & substantial flanking instruments must be introduced To conclude

49. … and finally We delude ourselves if our aspirations for a 2°C future resides substantially in the current framing of the EU ETS and the low-carbon technologies and practices that they may engender. Whilst technology undoubtedly has an important medium- and long-term role to play in reducing the carbon intensity of aviation, it is negligent and irresponsible not to engage with the sector s short-term emissions growth. The urgency with which the industry must make the transition to a low carbon pathway leaves no option, but to instigate a radical and immediate programme of demand management. … finally, P.40 of report states

50. … could high oil prices drive this change ?

51. Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets: Aviation emissions and the EU ETS Based on research by Kevin Anderson & Alice Bows Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering End