1. TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 1 STEPs Project Scenarios for Transport and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects Framework Programme 6, Call 1A Thematic Priority 1.6.2, Area 3.1.2, Task 1.10 Instrument: Co-ordination Action + Additional Research Angelo Martino – martino@trttrasportieterritorio.it Davide Fiorello - fiorello@trttrasportieterritorio.it

2. TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 2 Objectives STEPs: Scenarios for the Transport system and Energy supply and their Potential effects (January 2004 – July 2006) Funded by EC (6 th Framework Programme Research) To develop, compare and assess possible scenarios for the transport system and energy supply in Europe To use these results to assist in future decisions in the field of land use, transport and energy supply

3. TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 3 Policy questions addressed STEPs has attempted to answer questions such as… What are viable scenarios regarding transport and energy? Which measures have to be taken to achieve the targets? What can and should decision makers take along in their long-term considerations? To what degree can technological progress contribute? And demand management? What are transport impacts of the scenarios on mobility patterns? And on non-transport impacts?

4. TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 4 The scenarios matrix Columns: policy approach No policiesBusiness as Usual Demand regulation Technology investment Low oil price growth A-1A0A1A2 High oil price growth B-1B0B1B2 Rows : low/high oil price growth

5. TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 5 The simulation models EUROPEAN MODELS REGIONAL LAND-USE AND TRANSPORT MODELS Edinburgh Dortmund Helsinki South Tyrol Brussels POLES (analysing the world energy market, transport and socio-economic interconnections) ASTRA (focused on linkages between transport, economy and environment) SASI (concerning the impacts of transport on socio- economic development)

6. TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 6 POLES-ASTRA modelling loop From oil price assumptions to fuel price development Oil price development (2005 – 2030) Pure fuel price development (2005 – 2030) Low oil price growth +2% p.a.+1% p.a. High oil price growth +7% p.a.+4% p.a.

7. TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 7 Main results Transport demand continues to grow steadily and significantly Freight demand growth exceeds the economic growth measured in terms of GDP: i.e. no decoupling Car ownership is growing but with a decreasing growth rate. Energy consumption is decreasing (thanks to road vehicle fleet renewal) CO 2 emissions are stable or slightly increasing Average accessibility of European regions is increasing (thanks to Trans-European Networks) No policies scenario results

8. TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 8 Transport demand is not significantly affected Car and road freight continue to be the main modes Total energy consumption and polluting emissions are substantially unchanged Growth of GDP and employment is slightly reduced, (base trend of the reference scenario not significantly changed) Average accessibility for European passengers and freight is reduced Low oil price growth Business-as-Usual scenario results

9. TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 9 Transport variables High oil prices scenario results ASTRA model: Passengers-km (EU25 Member States)

10. TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 10 Environment variables High oil prices scenario results Dortmund model: polluting emissions

11. TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 11 Social and economic variables High oil prices scenario results ASTRA model: Employment (EU25 Member States)

12. TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 12 Main results Pressure for improving efficiency and using alternative sources of energy Slight reduction of total mobility Some shift to non-road modes Passenger demand more elastic than freight demand (reduction in car ownership) Polluting emissions further decreased (locally and CO 2 ) GDP and employment growth only slightly reduced Accessibility not dramatically damaged High oil prices scenario results

13. TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 13 ASTRA model: Passengers-km (EU25 Member States) Transport variables The effects of policy leverages

14. TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 14 POLES model: Share of energy from renewable sources Energy variables The effects of policy leverages

15. TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 15 Environment variables (2005 – 2030) The effects of policy leverages ASTRA model: CO2 emissions (EU25 Member States)

16. TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 16 Social and economic variables ASTRA model: Employment (25 EU Member States) The effects of policy leverages

17. TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 17 Technology investment: neutral impact on economic development additional investments, acceleration of fleet renewal positive development of energy consumption reduction of polluting emissions and CO2 The effects of policy leverages

18. TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 18 Demand regulation: transport demand slow down further reduction of polluting emissions and CO2 road transport sector is penalised negative impact on the economy (but still growing significantly) reduced accessibility of regions The effects of policy leverages

19. TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 19 Conclusions –Scarcity of oil could accelerate the development and take up of alternative fuel technologies, –Investment in alternative technologies alone will alleviate the impact of local emissions and reduce unitary energy consumption but will only reduce yearly CO2 emissions after a time lag of about 15 years, –Some form of regulation of demand will be necessary to reduce total emissions and externalities caused by congestion. –Demand regulation measures could significantly impact on peoples lifestyles and impose severe constraints on personal mobility

20. TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 20 Thank you for your attention Angelo Martino – martino@trttrasportieterritorio.it Davide Fiorello - fiorello@trttrasportieterritorio.it