1. Changing Travel Behaviour Phil Goodwin Centre for Transport and Society, UWE Bristol

2. Changing is ambiguous Changing as a description of what is happening, whether we will it or not Changing as an active intervention, with intent to make things different An axiom: travel behaviour does change, and therefore it can be changed

3. In one lifetime, car ownership and use have changed enormously

4. The change has been to establish a domination by car

5. Trends show the net effect of a churn: but individuals change in either direction

6. Trip rates also can increase or reduce

7. All the time, people are changing the method of transport they use

8. Even relationships change (eg between car ownership and age)

9. And between car ownership and income

10. Policies have big effects (though more complex than intended) Increases in road capacity induce traffic And capacity reduction reduces traffic Price changes (fuel, fares, congestion charging, vehicles) all influence traffic Soft measures change individual behaviour substantially and can reduce traffic if supported by other policies Park and ride reduces traffic in the centre (but may increase it elsewhere)…

11. Induced traffic: SACTRA, 1994 an average road improvement induced roundly 10% of the base traffic in the short run, and about 20% in the long run, and there were some schemes with induced traffic at double this level. the biggest levels of induced traffic were on the alternative routes that the schemes were intended to relieve. And the opposite? – Cairns et al 1998

12. Practical experience of capacity reduction

13. PRICE?

14. Fares affect patronage

15. Effect of soft measures on individual choices, if induced traffic prevented 11% reduction in national traffic volume 21% reduction in urban peak period traffic (13% off-peak) 14% reduction in non-urban peak traffic (7% off-peak)

16. Park-and-ride in 9 cities

17. How fast does behaviour change?

18. Conclusion Travel behaviour is very much more volatile and changeable than is often thought, significantly sensitive to transport policy (whether intended or not) and a decision to 'leave behaviour alone' simply does not exist. Behaviour does and will change, and everything that Government chooses to do, or chooses not to do, has an impact on these changes. The scope for making things better (or, indeed, worse) by changing behaviour is substantial, and unavoidable…