1. Appraising sub-regional and local growth strategies in the Nottingham-Leicester- Derby Area, UK. Policy applications of a new model of transport and land use activities Duncan Forbes and Ying Jin WSP Policy & Research, Cambridge, UK ETC 2008 8 October 2008

2. The 3 Cities sub-region, UK The PTOLEMY 1 study area 1 Planning Transport and Land use for the East Midlands economy

3. Structure of presentation Overview of PTOLEMY and the modelling approach Results from modelling studies undertaken –Case Study 1: Regional planning policy assessment –Case Study 2: Regional transport policy assessment –Case Study 3: Local housing policy assessment

4. What is a land use & transport model Economic Activity Population Location of shops, jobs, leisure Location of households Land use influences the use of transport Transport influences the location of land use Costs and congestion Costs and congestion

5. Land-use activities Basic Industries 10 full time + 10 Part time Households35Income-occupation/ Household size/ car availability Population8age/employment-education status Employed residents40Income-occupation/ Household size/car availability/FT-PT Local services 5 full time +5 Part time Households Basic Industries Local Services transport Eg shops, schools

6. Transport PTOLEMY incorporates a multimodal transport model Cycling Walking HGV LGV Households Basic Industries Local Services transport Bus Coach Tram Train Park and Ride Car Traveller segments22 (purpose, income-occupation groups, etc) Main travel modes10 (all land modes including walking/cycling) Travel stages23 (in-vehicle, access, waiting, etc) No of transport links 64,000

7. Case Study 1: Regional Planning Policy Assessment

8. Test options Dwelling test options D1: Dwelling Option 1 Trend growth Trend based growth assumptions from the Department for Communities and Local Government projections of households. D2: Dwelling Option 2 Urban concentration Policy based growth determined from the East Midlands draft-RSS (Regional Spatial Strategy). Employment test forecasts E1: Employment Forecast 1 Employment growth Employment forecast based upon TEMPRO 5.3, producing 5.9% growth over the period 2006 to 2016 and 3.4% growth over the period 2016 to 2026. E2: Employment Forecast 2 Employment decline Alternative employment forecast with -3.4% growth over the period 2006 to 2016, and 1.3% growth over the period 2016 to 2026. Similar levels of growth D2 concentrates growth in main urban areas E1 has positive employment growth E2 sees employment decline

9. Employment Change 2001 - 2006 Change 2006 - 2016 E1- D1 E1- D2 E2- D1 E2- D2 Total employment in study area 4%6% -4% Total employed residents in study area 4%12%9%12%9% Total in-commuters 21%6% -4% Total out-commuters 15%57%36%132%112% Highlights the increase in out-commuting from the sub-region in the period 2006 to 2026

10. Travel characteristics

11. E1-D2 scenario Positive employment growth and urban concentration housing growth Derby Nottingham Leicester Average zonal road traffic speeds

12. Conclusions from Case Study 1 Demonstrated the importance of the balance of employment and housing Showed that even with low economic growth traffic can grow Showed that average traffic speeds within the region would fall particularly in suburban and rural networks

13. Case Study 2: Regional Transport Assessment

14. Key features of the proposed Innovative package of measures Congestion-charge cordon around the urban centres of Nottingham, Leicester and Derby –£1.75 change on inbound traffic in the morning peak and outbound traffic movements in the evening peak. –No charge was incurred outside the peak periods. Measures that would allow or encourage travellers to change from using the car to making use of alternative transport modes: –Core measures: –Public transport fare reduction: –Smarter choices:

15. Summary of impact in the AM peak period (7am to 10am) Compared to a continuation of current policy: –Car: –car trips reduced by 15% –average monetary cost increased by 31% –Park and Ride –use increase significantly with travellers closer to the park and ride sites making more use of the facilities. –Bus –increases by 70% –the average journey length increasing by 6%. –average fare reduced by 25% –Tram –67% increase in patronage with the introduction of new routes. –Walking and cycling –also saw a 8% increase

16. Conclusions from Case Study 2 We were able to show that there was a significant reduction in the use of car transport leading lower levels of congestions

17. Case Study 3: Local Housing Policy Assessment

18. Derby Loughborough Leicester Nottingham Burton Housing rent indicator M1 Motorway Coalville Hinckley

19. Change in congestion levels

20. Conclusions from Case Study 3 Highlighted the impact on the local housing market from the construction of 15000 dwellings within Coalville Showed that congestions is likely to increase from Coalville leading to the M1, but also towards Loughborough

21. Conclusions PTOLEMY has been developed to undertake a range of policy test within the 3-cities sub region of the East Midlands. –Case Study 1. Demonstrates the importance between the balance of employment and housing. –Case Study 2. Shows that a package of transport measures would be successful in reducing car traffic to support the economic development ambitions of the sub-region. –Case Study 3: Shows the likely impacts to the local housing market and the impact of development on the highway network. The model is now being extensively used by both public and private bodies within the region, in a number of new policy applications

22. Acknowledgments PTOLEMY model development –UK Highways Agency, East Midlands Development Agency, East Midlands Regional Authority, Department for Transport, East Midlands Airport Case Study 1. –UK Highways Agency, East Midlands Development Agency, East Midlands Regional Authority Case Study 2 –Derby City Council, Derbyshire County Council, Leicester City Council, Leicestershire County Council, Nottingham City Council, Nottinghamshire County Council Case Study 3 –Leicestershire County Council WSP team –Gordon Deane, Duncan Forbes, Jing Gao, Jenny Hunt, Vera Jakimovska, Ying Jin, Ian Williams, Yan Zhu