1. Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010 Tools for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Abigail Baca The World Bank Group GFDRR Labs

2. Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010 The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (HFA) : 1.Ensure risk reduction is a national and a local priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation. 2.Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning. 3.Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels. 4.Reduce underlying risk factors. 5.Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels. How to Manage Disaster Risk in the Pacific? Not If, But When…

3. Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010 Climate Change Adaptation Analysis of financial exposure Immediate damage assessment Scenario analysis for emergency preparedness Cost Benefit analysis for mitigation and prevention investments Infrastructure design Land Use/ Territorial planning Visualization of hazard and risk Risk Assessment Tools to Assist Decision Making Early Warning Systems “When?”… But also What and How??

4. Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010 Risk Modeling Risk (i.e probable damage/loss) Hazard (i.e. Cyclone wind) Exposure (i.e. houses, crops) Vulnerability (of house to wind) Disaster Impact Analysis - Scenario or Stochastic -

5. Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010 San Juan del Sur Nicaragua Hazard Exposure Risk: Physical Damage, Loss $ Scenario Modeling Vulnerability

6. Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010 Stochastic Hazard Modeling Frequency : How likely is this event? Annual probability of occurrence (i.e. 1/ 100) Severity : How strong is the event? Hurricane Cat 5 What does the event look like? Track, Point of landfall, wind field, etc Stochastic Event Set = All physically possible events More that historical record, estimate future events

7. Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010 Multiple Hazards EARTHQUAKE Tropical CycloneINTENSE RAINVOLCANO TSUNAMI GROUND SHAKING / LIQUEFACTION LANDSLIDES - GROUND SHAKING - HURRICANE RAINFALL - OTHER RAINFALL STRONG WINDS STORM SURGE HURRICANE RAINFALL FLOODS - HURRICANE RAINFALL - OTHER RAINFALL ASH FALLS BALLISTIC EJECTIONS PYROCLASTIC FLOWS LAVA FLOWS

8. Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010 Powerful, accurate models need lots and lots of DATA

9. Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010 Hazards Exposure Vulnerability Risk + + + Applications Visualization of hazard and risk Territorial planning Infrastructure design Cost Benefit analysis for mitigation and prevention investments Scenario analysis for emergency preparedness Immediate damage assessment Analysis of financial exposure Climate Change

10. Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010 Climate Change Adaptation Analysis of financial exposure Immediate damage assessment Scenario analysis for emergency preparedness Cost Benefit analysis for mitigation and prevention investments Infrastructure design Land Use/ Territorial planning Visualization of hazard and risk Risk Assessment Tools to Assist Decision Making Early Warning Systems “When?”… But also what and how??

11. Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010 Land Use Planning and Zoning Seismic hazard map Landslides hazard map Flood hazard map Identification of main hazards

12. Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010 Cost Benefit Analysis Retrofitting of Critical Infrastructure Bogota Disaster Vulnerability Reduction program Schools Retrofitted 2004-2008 : 201 School and Administration Buildings Assessed

13. Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010 Climate Change Impact on Disasters EARTHQUAKE HURRICANEINTENSE RAINVOLCANO TSUNAMI GROUND SHAKING / LIQUEFACTION LANDSLIDES - GROUND SHAKING - HURRICANE RAINFALL - OTHER RAINFALL STRONG WINDS STORM SURGE HURRICANE RAINFALL FLOODS - HURRICANE RAINFALL - OTHER RAINFALL ASH FALLS BALLISTIC EJECTIONS PYROCLASTIC FLOWS LAVA FLOWS

14. Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010 Flood Risk : explore climate change scenarios Base Model Model A Model B

15. Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010 How much to disasters really cost?? -Government reserves for Emergency Response -Risk Financing/ Risk Transfer Financial Analysis of Risk

16. Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010 Hazards Exposure Vulnerability Risk + + + Applications Visualization of hazard and risk Territorial planning Infrastructure design Cost Benefit analysis for mitigation and prevention investments Scenario analysis for emergency preparedness Immediate damage assessment Analysis of financial exposure Climate Change

17. Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010 Not IF but WHEN…. So What and How? Abigail Baca abaca@worldbank.org