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World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water www.wmo.int WMO 2 nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the.

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Presentation on theme: "World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water www.wmo.int WMO 2 nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the."— Presentation transcript:

1 World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water www.wmo.int WMO 2 nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the Financial Management of Large-scale Catastrophes Session 1: Learning from the past and looking ahead: Thailand and South East Asia five years after the tsunami, and facing the threats of global warming. Role of WMO and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Disaster Risk Reduction Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme September 24, 2009, Bangkok, Thailand

2 1.After Tsunami 2.Managing Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate related risks 3. Role of HydroMet Services in Disaster Risk Management –Risk assessment –Risk Reduction and Early Warning Systems –Risk Transfer 4.WMO initiatives AGENDA

3 Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004 Ocean based Tsunami observing system installed (UNESCO- IOC) 2 international Tsunami Watch Centers designated (JMA, PTWC) WMO Global Telecommunication System updated in 8 countries All countries receive Tsunami Watch under 5 minute All countries in Indian Ocean have National Focal Points for Tsunami watch BUT Disaster risk management and emergency preparedness in most countries is still reactive and remain to be addressed

4 Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007) in South and South-East Asia Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc 90% of events 55% of casualties 84% of economic losses are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions. Bangladesh, Buthan, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Philippines, Singapore, SriLanka, Thailand, Vietnam

5 Regional Distribution of Number of Disasters, Casualties and Economic losses Caused by natural hazards (1980-2007) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc Number of eventsLoss of life Economic Losses

6 Climate change impact in South and South East Asia IPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007) Increase in occurrence in extreme weather events: heat waves and intense precipitation events Increase of 10-20 % in Tropical Cyclones intensities for a rise of sea surface temperature of 2 to 4 degrees Expansion of areas under severe water stress Increased flooding risks during wet season and possibilities of water shortage in dry season on the Mekong river Sea level rise could flood the residence of millions of people in the low-level areas (Vietnam, Bangladesh and India) Increased in climate related diseases (diarrhea and malnutrition, infectious diseases such as cholera)

7 How WMOs Research and Operational Network of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services support Disaster Risk Management WMO leverages global, regional, national cooperation to ensure development and availability of meteorological, hydrological and climate services at the national level.

8 Pacific Decadal Oscillation Northern Atlantic Oscillation IPCC Assessments UNFCCC negotiations WMO has been coordinating International Research Programmes in Weather and Climate World Climate Research Programme, World Weather Research Programme Operational forecasting systems

9 WMO Coordinates a Global Network for Monitoring, Detection and Forecasting of Hazards Operated by National Meteorological Services Global Telecommunication System Global Observing System National Meteorological & Hydrological Services Global Data Processing and Forecasting 2 4 3 1

10 Communication and Dissemination of Processed information National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Government and civil defence authorities Media General public Private sector 5 Examples: Global Tropical Cyclone and Storm Watch System Emergency Response Activities Drought Monitoring and Forecasting 6

11 WMO Network Supports National Early Warning Systems such as the Cyclone Preparedness Programme in Bangladesh

12 WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme was established in 2003 to … Leverage WMOs Research and Operational Network and partnerships to support disaster risk reduction at the national level in a more comprehensive and coordinated manner

13 Hyogo Framework for Action… … change in paradigm of DRM Traditionally, disaster risk management has been focused on post disaster response in most countries! Adoption of Hyogo Framework for Action in 2005 is leading to a new paradigm in disaster risk management involving investments in preparedness and prevention through risk assessment, risk reduction and risk transfer …. Implementation of the new paradigm in DRM would require meteorological, hydrological and climate information and services!

14 Comprehensive National Disaster Risk Management Programmes Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Risk TransferRisk Identification Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Risk Reduction Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration 2 1 3

15 WMO Action Plan for Disaster strengthening Risk Reduction at national and regional level 1.Modernized Hydromet Services and observing networks. 2.Strengthened national operational multi-hazard early warning systems. 3.Strengthened hazard analysis and hydro-meteorological risk assessment capacities. 4.Strengthened Hydromet Services cooperation and partnerships with civil protection and disaster risk management agencies. 5.Trained management and staff of Hydromet Services 6.Enhanced ministerial and public awareness

16 Risk TransferRisk Identification Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Risk Reduction Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Assessment

17 Provision of hazard data and analysis to support risk assessment: –Historical and real-time hazard databases and metadata –Hazard analysis and mapping methodologies –Forward looking hazard trend analysis Short- to Medium-term weather forecasts Probabilitic climate models

18 Number of Countries Maintaining some sort of Hazard Data Archives Very few countries maintain impact databases Data archived are not standardised 90 % of NMHS indicated need for guidelines and support in hazard analysis, mapping and statistics (WMO DRR survey)

19 Risk TransferRisk Identification Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Risk Reduction Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Reduction

20 Economic losses related to disasters are on the way up Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database While casualties related to hydro- meteorological disasters are decreasing

21 Marine Health (etc.)… Geological Communities at risk hazard warning National to local governments Hydrological Meteorological NATIONAL SERVICES post-disaster response In many countries, early warning systems are not an integral part of disaster risk management hazard warning

22 Meteorological Hydrological Geological Marine Health (etc.) COORDINATION AMONG NATIONAL SERVICES feedback Community Preparedness warnings National to local governments supported by DRR plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms warnings feedback What is an Effective EWS? warnings preventive actions 1 2 3 4 5 5 3 3 5

23 Risk TransferRisk Identification Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Risk Reduction Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets

24 Availability and accessibility of historical and real- time data Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, homogenization and analysis Reliable and authoritative data for contract design and settlement Forecasts for management of risk portfolio Technical support and service delivery

25 Challenges at different levels Building, strengthening and sustaining the meteorological/climate observing networks, data management and forecasting systems are resource intensive and not on the radar screen of many governments! Servicing Financial Risk Transfer markets is a new field for Meteorological and Hydrological Services!

26 Addressing these Challenges at different levels Need to make a business case for the need for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services with their governments (e.g., investments in meteorological capacities is an investment towards improved risk managment and development) Initiate systematic modenization/data rescue/capacity development of Met Services with a sustainability plan Raise awareness of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services on emerging opportunities such as « weather-indexed Insurance » (based on lessons learnt from demonstrated pilots) Engage National Meteorological and Hydrlogical Services as Partners Standardization of core meteorlogical/hydrological/climate products

27 Progress with Catastrophe (CAT) Insurance / Bond and Weather Risk Management Markets Drought Risk Management in Ethiopia Malawi Drought Risk Management Southeastern Europe Disaster Risk management Project & Southeastern and Central European Risk Insurance Facility UK Flood CAT Bond CAT Bond Markets post Hurricane Andrew Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility Pacific Risk Insurance Facility Indian Agricultural Risk European Agricultural Risk Hydro Electric Power Risk Contracts Wind Power Risk Contracts Catastrophe Insurance and Bond Markets Weather Risk Management Markets (ART) Heating Degree Day Contracts

28 Key Questions: 1) Can National Meteorological and Hydrological Services meet these demands? 2) How to engage National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the DRR planning and implementation to generate demand for their services?

29 Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) 1. National policies and legislation 2. Infrastructure & institutional capacities in monitoring, forecasting, communications 3.Hazard databases 4.Forecasting and Warning Capacities 5.Human resources (technical, managerial) 6.Operational partnerships with disaster risk management stakeholders Assessing Capacities, Gaps and Needs of National Meteorological Services to support disaster risk management:

30 139 /187 Countries responded 74% response rate 24/52 54 % 25/34 74 % 10/12 83 % 18/22 82 % 14/19 74 % 44/48 92 % http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Country Responses

31 Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Country Responses Scope Number of surveys received Total number of countries % Response Global (WMO Members)139187 74% Developing countries8513762% Least Developed countries255050% Africa (RA I)285254% Asia (RA II)253474% South America (RA III)101283% Central and North America (RA IV)182282% South-West Pacific (RA V)141974% Europe (RA VI)444892%

32 Country-Level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Category Planning & Legislation Infrastructure: Observation Forecasting Telecom. Data, Analysis and Technical Capacities Partnerships & Concept of Operations % countries 1Need for development in all areas 12 2Need for improvements in all areas 42 3 Self sufficient Need for improvements in these areas 26 4 Self sufficient Could benefit from sharing of good practices practices and guidelines 20 Under estimated Around 60% of the NMHS are challenged in meeting needs in DRM!

33 WMO is Establishing Strategic Partnerships with Agencies that Influence the National DRM Programmes and Funding Partners Agency TypeCoordination National DRR Implementation Funding World Bank (GFDRR) Development XX ISDR Coordination XX UNDP Development X XX WFP, FAO Humanitarian Development XXX UN- OCHA Humanitarian XX IFRC Humanitarian XX Donors (EC, etc) Donor X

34 WMO is addressing this challenge through national and regional projects with World Bank, UNDP, ISDR and others Partnerships and User-drivenservice delivery Modernization of infrastructures (when needed) –observing networks, forecasting and communication Data rescue and managment systems Technical training – Analysis and forecasting tools and methodologies Generating demand for Meteorological and Hydrological Services with the goal to direct sustainable government funding overtime for further improving and sustaining of these services

35 Systematic Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects (2007-2011)

36 Systematic Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects 200720092008 2010 2011 (Africa) (Asia) (South America) (North America & Carribeans) (Asia-Pacific) (Europe) Sever weather/Flash Flood Guidance /storm watch technical training (SADC) End-to-end EWS Shanghai Mega City Multi Hazard-EWS demo DRR Pilot Central Asia and Caucasus: 7 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO) DRR Pilot South East Europe: 8 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO) DRR Pilot South East Asia: 5 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO) End-to-end EWS Pilot Central America: 3 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO, NOAA, IFRC)

37 World Bank, ISDR, WMO initiative in South East Asia Phase I: Fact finding assessment and development of national and regional reports (Funded by GFDRR) (underway) Lao Vietnam Cambodia Indonesia Philippines Initiated in 2009 Goal: to strengthen institutional cooperation and coordination in Risk Management Capacities Hydro meteorological services

38 Trends and patterns of hazard are changing due to climate change (IPCC) Statistical analysis of historical data is only first estimate. Needs for forward looking information to augment statistical hazard analysis and mapping

39 IPCC 4 th Assessment Report, 2007 Climate variability and change and their impacts are not uniform geographically (IPCC, 2007) Trends in heavy rainfall Droughts Need for production of local climate information… Highly Resource Intensive! Trends in Frost and Heat Waves

40 Global/Regional/National Cooperation Framework For Provisions of Climate Services Four Major Thrusts: Understanding of information needs of at-risk sectors –Through partnerships (with UN, international and regional agencies) Designation and coordination of network of global and regional climate centers –to faciliate provision of forecasting and analysis tools and information to national centers Strengthen observation networks More targeted climate research

41 Gobal Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs) Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) RCC Network Nodes (Pilot) Global/Regional Network of WMO Designated Climate Centers Washington Montreal Exeter ECMWF Toulouse Moscow Pretoria Melbourne Beijing Seoul Tokyo Lead Centre for SVSLRF Lead Centre for LRFMME SVSLRF: Standardized Verification System for Long Range Forecasts LRFMME: Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble CLW/CLPA/WCAS

42 World Climate Conference-3 Better climate information for a better future Geneva, Switzerland 31 August–4 September 2009

43 Climate Risk management Project in Africa WMO/World Bank Project in Africa Funded by GFDRR Countries: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda Objectives: Development of climate information based on observations and latest climate tools and forecasting technologies Sectors: Agriculture and water resource management Timeline of data: Different climate scales up to 20 years: Partners –National: NMHS, sectors representatives –International/Regional: World Bank, –Technical: GlobalClimate Centers (US, UK, ECMWF, Pretoria) and Regional centers (IGAD) Status: Project was launch on June 21 World Bank project manager: Amal Talbi-Jordan

44 For more information please contact: Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme World Meteorological Organization Tel. 41.22.730.8006 Fax. 41.22.730.8023 Email. MGolnaraghi@WMO.int http://www.wmo.int/disasters Thank You

45 Increasing Risks under a Changing Climate Intensity Frequency Heatwaves Heavy rainfall / Flood Tropical Cyclones Coastal Marine Hazards Strong Wind Water Resource Management Health Industry Food security Transport Energy Urban areas Hazards intensity and frequency are increasing Volnurability and Exposure on the rise ! Need for disaster risk management

46 A comprehensive approach to DRR is critical for reducing risks WMO Strategic Plan 2008-2015 (Top Level Objectives and Five Strategic Thrusts) Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (World Conference on Disaster Reduction) WMO strategic priorities in Disaster Risk Reduction Consultations with WMO governing bodies, Regional and National network and partners


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