Presentation on theme: "World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO 2nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the Financial."— Presentation transcript:
1 World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO2nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the Financial Management of Large-scale CatastrophesSession 1: Learning from the past and looking ahead: Thailand and South East Asia five years after the tsunami, and facing the threats of global warming.Role of WMO and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Disaster Risk ReductionMaryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Chief of WMO Disaster Risk Reduction ProgrammeSeptember 24, 2009, Bangkok, Thailand
2 Managing Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate related risks AGENDAAfter TsunamiManaging Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate related risksRole of HydroMet Services in Disaster Risk ManagementRisk assessmentRisk Reduction and Early Warning SystemsRisk TransferWMO initiatives
3 Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004Ocean based Tsunami observing system installed (UNESCO-IOC)2 international Tsunami Watch Centers designated (JMA, PTWC)WMO Global Telecommunication System updated in 8 countriesAll countries receive Tsunami Watch under 5 minuteAll countries in Indian Ocean have National Focal Points for Tsunami watchBUT Disaster risk management and emergency preparedness in most countries is still reactive and remain to be addressed
4 Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts ( ) in South and South-East Asia90% of events55% of casualties84% of economic lossesare related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions.Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - BelgiumcBangladesh, Buthan, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Philippines, Singapore, SriLanka, Thailand, VietnamBetween 1980 and 2007, nearly 8500 natural disasters worldwide have taken the lives of nearly 2 million people and produced economic losses over 1.2 trillion US dollars. Recent statistics from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters reveal that, of this total, some 90 per cent of the natural disasters, 70 per cent of casualties and 75 per cent of economic losses were caused by weather-, climate- or water-related hazards such as droughts, floods, windstorms, tropical cyclones and storm surges, extreme temperatures, land slides, wild fires or by health epidemics and insect infestations directly linked to the meteorological and hydrological conditions.4
5 Regional Distribution of Number of Disasters, Casualties and Economic losses Caused by natural hazards ( )Important effect of the 2005 Tsunami in geophysical loss of life in Asia and Pacific region, ( ) as well as the Earthquake in Pakistan in 2005 (73 000)Of the Economic losses in Asia due to Geophisical hazards, Earthquakes in Japan account for two thirdsHydrometeorological: Drought, Extreme temperature, Flood, Slides, Wild fires, Windstorm, Epidemic, InsectsGeological: Earthquakes, Volcano, TsunamiNumber of eventsLoss of lifeEconomic LossesSource: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc5
6 Climate change impact in South and South East Asia IPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007) Increase in occurrence in extreme weather events: heat waves and intense precipitation eventsIncrease of % in Tropical Cyclones intensities for a rise of sea surface temperature of 2 to 4 degreesExpansion of areas under severe water stressIncreased flooding risks during wet season and possibilities of water shortage in dry season on the Mekong riverSea level rise could flood the residence of millions of people in the low-level areas (Vietnam, Bangladesh and India)Increased in climate related diseases (diarrhea and malnutrition, infectious diseases such as cholera)
7 How WMO’s Research and Operational Network of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services support Disaster Risk Management WMO leverages global, regional, national cooperation to ensure development and availability of meteorological, hydrological and climate services at the national level.
8 WMO has been coordinating International Research Programmes in Weather and Climate World Climate Research Programme, World Weather Research ProgrammeOperational forecasting systemsNorthern Atlantic OscillationPacificDecadalOscillationUNFCCCnegotiationsIPCC Assessments8
9 National Meteorological & WMO Coordinates a Global Network for Monitoring, Detection and Forecasting of Hazards Operated by National Meteorological Services2Global Observing SystemNational Meteorological &HydrologicalServices134Global Data Processing and ForecastingGlobal Telecommunication System
10 Communication and Dissemination of Processed information 5National Meteorologicaland Hydrological ServicesExamples:Global Tropical Cyclone and Storm Watch SystemEmergency Response ActivitiesDrought Monitoring and Forecasting6National Meteorological and Hydrological Services are linked among themselves through the Global Telecommunication System (GTS). This secured communication network enables real-time exchange of information, critical for forecasting and warning of hydrometeorological hazards.PrivatesectorGeneralpublicMediaGovernment andcivil defenceauthorities
11 WMO Network Supports National Early Warning Systems such as the Cyclone Preparedness Programme in BangladeshSince a devastating cyclone in 1991 killed an estimated 139,000 people throughout Bangladesh, the coastline has been studded with concrete shelters raised on 12-foot pillars to allow tidal surges to flow beneath. The government also honed its early warning systems and set up a volunteer network to assist with evacuations.Year Death toll Name AreaWest SundarbansMegna EestuaryChittagong, NoakhaliBarisal districtBhola Khulna, ChittagongUrir, Jabbar, Bata, Darbesh, Clark, Sudharam, Hatia, Sand Wip Islands + Patuakhali, Bhola, North Chittagong, Feni, Noakhali districtsGorky Cox's Bazar, Chittagong, Patuakhali, Noakhali, Bhola, Barguna
12 WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme was established in 2003 to … Leverage WMO’s Research and Operational Network and partnerships to support disaster risk reduction at the national level in a more comprehensive and coordinated manner
13 Hyogo Framework for Action… … change in paradigm of DRM Traditionally, disaster risk management has been focused on post disaster response in most countries!Adoption of Hyogo Framework for Action in 2005 is leading to a new paradigm in disaster risk management involving investments in preparedness and prevention through risk assessment, risk reduction and risk transfer ….Implementation of the new paradigm in DRM would require meteorological, hydrological and climate information and services!
14 Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training Comprehensive National Disaster Risk Management Programmes Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological ServicesAlignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaborationRisk IdentificationRisk ReductionRisk TransferHazard databasesHazard statisticsClimate forecasting and trend analysisExposed assets & vulnerabilityRisk analysis tools1PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planningMITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture)CAT insurance & bondsWeather-indexed insurance and derivativesOther emerging products32Disaster risk management strategies, as detailed in the HFA, can be framed under three main areas: Risk Identification, Risk Reduction and Risk Transfer. HFA stresses that successful disaster risk management should be supported by effective governance, legislation, legal frameworks and institutional capacities at national to local levels supplemented by effective information and knowledge sharing mechanisms among different stakeholders.Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training
15 WMO Action Plan for Disaster strengthening Risk Reduction at national and regional level Modernized Hydromet Services and observing networks.Strengthened national operational multi-hazard early warning systems.Strengthened hazard analysis and hydro-meteorological risk assessment capacities.Strengthened Hydromet Services cooperation and partnerships with civil protection and disaster risk management agencies.Trained management and staff of Hydromet ServicesEnhanced ministerial and public awarenessOn the basis of a consultative process approved by EC Member and regional requirements and priorities have been identified systematically in disaster risk reduction and used to develop a DPM Action plan is being developed based on synergistic activities of WMO Programmes, Commissions, Members and Partners . This Action plan is being implemented through regionla and national projects with the following end results,
16 Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk AssessmentAlignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaborationRisk IdentificationRisk ReductionRisk TransferHazard databasesHazard statisticsClimate forecasting and trend analysisExposed assets & vulnerabilityRisk analysis toolsPREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planningMITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture)CAT insurance & bondsWeather-indexed insurance and derivativesOther emerging productsDisaster risk management strategies, as detailed in the HFA, can be framed under three main areas: Risk Identification, Risk Reduction and Risk Transfer. HFA stresses that successful disaster risk management should be supported by effective governance, legislation, legal frameworks and institutional capacities at national to local levels supplemented by effective information and knowledge sharing mechanisms among different stakeholders.Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training16
17 Provision of hazard data and analysis to support risk assessment: Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk AssessmentProvision of hazard data and analysis to support risk assessment:Historical and real-time hazard databases and metadataHazard analysis and mapping methodologiesForward looking hazard trend analysisShort- to Medium-term weather forecastsProbabilitic climate models
18 Number of Countries Maintaining some sort of Hazard Data Archives Very few countries maintain impact databasesData archived are not standardised90 % of NMHS indicated need for guidelines and support in hazard analysis, mapping and statistics (WMO DRR survey)The impact of a disaster is not the only criteria for implementation of EWS: complexity and cost of the system is also important in the decision-making process. Example: heat wave and cold wave do not have a high impact on South America, but EWS for those hazards are in place in most countries because they rely on observations and forecasts of simple meteorological parameters.
19 Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk ReductionAlignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaborationRisk IdentificationRisk ReductionRisk TransferHazard databasesHazard statisticsClimate forecasting and trend analysisExposed assets & vulnerabilityRisk analysis toolsPREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planningMITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture)CAT insurance & bondsWeather-indexed insurance and derivativesOther emerging productsDisaster risk management strategies, as detailed in the HFA, can be framed under three main areas: Risk Identification, Risk Reduction and Risk Transfer. HFA stresses that successful disaster risk management should be supported by effective governance, legislation, legal frameworks and institutional capacities at national to local levels supplemented by effective information and knowledge sharing mechanisms among different stakeholders.Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training19
20 Economic losses related to disasters are on the way up While casualties related to hydro-meteorological disasters are decreasingIt is significant to note that while the number of disasters and associated economic losses have increased steadily from the 1950's to 2005, the reported loss of life has decreased by a factor of 10, demonstrating that early warnings combined with emergency preparedness and response planning can indeed significantly contribute to saving lives.Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
21 post-disaster response In many countries, early warning systems are not an integral part of disaster risk managementCommunitiesat riskNational to localgovernmentspost-disaster responsehazard warningNATIONAL SERVICESMeteorologicalHydrologicalhazard warningThe second Priority for Action in the HFA, namely “Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warnings,” stresses the importance of early warning systems as a critical component of disaster risk reduction.Early warning systems have received significant international attention over the last decade, including (i) Three international conferences on early warning sponsored by Government of Germany (1998, 2003, 2006); (ii) The establishment of ISDR’s Platform for Promotion of Early Warning (2004); (iii) The recognition of early warning systems as an integral part of disaster risk reduction within the G8 summit of 2005; (iv) The First Multi-Agency International Symposium on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (convened by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in May 2006: (v) The Report of the Global Survey of Early Warning Systems requested by former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan (2006); and (vi) Recent UN General Assembly Resolutions (A/62/320, A/62/340). In response to a recommendation by the Global Survey of Early Warning Systems to further analyse national capacities specifically related to hydrometeorological early warning systems, WMO conducted a comprehensive, survey-based,assessment of NMHSs’ capacities with regard to disaster risk reduction. A report on this assessment is scheduled for release during the second quarter of 2008.GeologicalMarineHealth (etc.)…
22 What is an Effective EWS? 41National to localgovernmentssupported byDRR plans, legislationand coordinationmechanismsCommunity Preparedness5feedbackpreventive actions5feedback2warningswarningsCOORDINATION AMONG NATIONAL SERVICES33MeteorologicalHydrologicalGeologicalMarineHealth (etc.)3warningsfeedbackEffective early warning systems require:Strong support from the governmentCoordination among national services for issuance of warnings that take vulenrabilities and exposure of elements into accountAuthoritative and reliable dissemination channelCommunity preparedness measuresFeedback mechanism5
23 Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer MarketsAlignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaborationRisk IdentificationRisk ReductionRisk TransferHazard databasesHazard statisticsClimate forecasting and trend analysisExposed assets & vulnerabilityRisk analysis toolsPREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planningMITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture)CAT insurance & bondsWeather-indexed insurance and derivativesOther emerging productsDisaster risk management strategies, as detailed in the HFA, can be framed under three main areas: Risk Identification, Risk Reduction and Risk Transfer. HFA stresses that successful disaster risk management should be supported by effective governance, legislation, legal frameworks and institutional capacities at national to local levels supplemented by effective information and knowledge sharing mechanisms among different stakeholders.Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training23
24 Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time dataData quality assurance, filling data gaps, homogenization and analysisReliable and authoritative data for contract design and settlementForecasts for management of risk portfolioTechnical support and service deliveryFinancial risk transfer mechanisms, available through catastrophe (CAT) insurance and bonds as well as weather risk management markets, enable distribution of the remaining risks, that have not been addressed by risk identification and risk reduction, and that are associated with (i) extreme events (e.g., floods, droughts, earthquakes and tropical cyclones) and (ii) deviation of meteorological conditions from “normal” (e.g., late on-set, warmer or cooler than normal seasons). These markets have been primarily focused on developed countries, involving a wide range of standardized and customized financial products targeted at various sectors. However, under the new paradigm of disaster risk management, a number of international agencies including the World Bank, World Food Programme, WMO as well as the private sector are joining forces to facilitate the development of these markets in the developing and least developed countries.The expert meeting on “Requirements of Catastrophe Insurance and Weather Risk Management Markets”, held on 5-7 December 2007, recommended development of the following outputs: (i) Identification of requirements of catastrophe insurance and weather risk management markets for data and forecast products; (ii) Development of standard indices with input from WMO technical commissions; (iii) Facilitation of networking with NMHS and Space agencies; (iv) Motivating coordinated climate research on understanding of patterns of risk (spatial and temporal correlations); (v) Modernization of observing networks; (vi) Data Rescue Programmes and capacity development of NMHSs (in cooperation with World Bank and other international development agencies); (vii) Raising political awareness on benefits of NMHSs (with private and public partners); (viii) Developing sustainable observing networks and data management systems; (ix) Addressing data policy issues; (x) Training of NMHS
25 Challenges at different levels Building, strengthening and sustaining the meteorological/climate observing networks, data management and forecasting systems are resource intensive and not on the radar screen of many governments!Servicing Financial Risk Transfer markets is a “new” field for Meteorological and Hydrological Services!
26 Addressing these Challenges at different levels Need to make a business case for the need for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services with their governments (e.g., investments in meteorological capacities is an investment towards improved risk managment and development)Initiate systematic modenization/data rescue/capacity development of Met Services with a sustainability planRaise awareness of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services on emerging opportunities such as « weather-indexed Insurance » (based on lessons learnt from demonstrated pilots)Engage National Meteorological and Hydrlogical Services as PartnersStandardization of core meteorlogical/hydrological/climate products
27 Progress with Catastrophe (CAT) Insurance / Bond and Weather Risk Management Markets Drought Risk Management in EthiopiaMalawi Drought Risk ManagementSoutheastern Europe Disaster Risk management Project& Southeastern and Central European Risk Insurance FacilityUK Flood CAT BondCAT Bond Markets post Hurricane AndrewCaribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance FacilityPacific Risk Insurance FacilityIndian Agricultural RiskEuropean Agricultural RiskHydro Electric Power Risk ContractsWind Power Risk ContractsCatastrophe Insurance and Bond MarketsWeather Risk Management Markets (ART)Heating Degree Day Contracts
28 Key Questions:1) Can National Meteorological and Hydrological Services meet these demands?2) How to engage National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the DRR planning and implementation to generate demand for their services?
29 Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Assessing Capacities, Gaps and Needs of National Meteorological Services to support disaster risk management:1. National policies and legislation2. Infrastructure & institutional capacities in monitoring, forecasting, communicationsHazard databasesForecasting and Warning CapacitiesHuman resources (technical, managerial)Operational partnerships with disaster risk management stakeholdersIn March 2006, WMO distributed a survey questionnaire to its Members to determine their respective capacities and involvement in disaster risk reduction. This fact-finding survey addressed capacities of NMHSs to contribute to all aspects of disaster risk reduction, including risk identification, sectoral planning, early warning systems, education and knowledge sharing.Specifically, the survey sought to clarifyhydrometeorological hazards affecting Member countries,relationships of NMHSs to their respective national coordination systems for disaster risk reduction,NMHSs capacities to support disaster risk reduction within their countries, andgaps and needs related to these capacities.Contributions from 139 of the 187 (74%) National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) were received.A Brief Overview of the Survey ResultsThe following gives a preliminary global synthesis of the results of the WMO country-level survey and parallels the structure of the survey questionnaire, assessing the information provided by the survey under four categories – i) governance, ii) organizational, iii) technical, and iv) training and capacity development.i) GovernanceThe survey responses indicate that coordination of disaster risk management activities is generally undertaken at the national level in most countries around the world. They also suggest, however, that national legislative and governance systems for disaster risk management should be re-evaluated and, where necessary, revised to ensure that adequate leadership, coherence and focus are given to disaster risk reduction. Moreover, the roles of individual players in disaster risk reduction should be clarified, in particular those of the NMHSs.ii) OrganizationalWhile most NMHSs are members of their national disaster risk coordinating committees, some of them feel that these structures restrict their contributions. Moreover, most survey contributors are very supportive of the establishment of readiness systems that would require specific actions by authorities on receipt of hazard warnings. In addition, they generally endorse the view that improved coordination between National Meteorological Services (NMSs) and National Hydrological Services (NHSs) would result in enhanced hazard warnings, forecasts and other products. In summary, the WMO survey confirms that the involvement of NMHSs in national disaster risk management systems needs to be enhanced in many countries and that partnerships need to be strengthened with relevant government and non-government agencies and organizations. It also confirms the need to improve operational coordination between the meteorological and hydrological communities, particularly in relation to hazard warnings.iii) TechnicalKey technical aspects of NMHS infrastructure and programmes include observational, telecommunications and informatics infrastructures, warning and forecast capabilities and data management and product generation capacities.Observational Capacities - Accurate and representative hydrometeorological observations, relayed in real time, are the essential raw material for the preparation of early warnings of hydrometeorological hazards and also underpin the production of other products and services for disaster risk reduction. The lack of adequate observational networks is identified by contributors to the WMO survey as limiting NMHSs’ ability to contribute to disaster risk reduction to varying degrees across all regions and country groupings, and particularly in Developing and Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States.Telecommunications and Informatics - Telecommunications systems constrain NMHSs’ abilities to support disaster risk reduction to varying degrees in all regions and country groupings. Applications software, network equipment, and computers are widely seen as limiting factors while some NMHSs also cite difficulties with Internet access. In short, the WMO survey confirms that significant upgrading of telecommunications and informatics capacities is needed in many countries and particularly in Developing and Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States.Warning and Forecast Capacities - The timely provision of early warnings of hydrological and meteorological hazards represents the most visible and easily understood component of NMHSs’ support to disaster risk reduction. The survey responses indicate, however, that warning and forecasting facilities in some countries, and particularly in Least Developed and Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States, require significant enhancement both in relation to staff training and to provision of 24 hourly/year-round hazard warning services. Moreover, the fact that hazard warning programmes generally do not, at present, include all hydrological and meteorological hazards that can cause disasters is a further deficiency that needs to be rectified. In view of these realities, large majorities of survey contributors from all regions and groups consider that upgrading warning and forecast services would enhance disaster risk reduction in their countries.Data Management and Product Generation – While many NMHSs maintain records of common hydrometeorological hazards and have access to official information on their impacts, few maintain such archives in standardized formats that include metadata and few maintain systematic records of less frequently occurring hazards. Almost all of them identify needs to strengthen their data management capacities, citing weaknesses in data rescue, quality assurance, archiving and customization of data for stakeholders. Most also highlight requirements for capacity development and training in critical areas for disaster risk reduction such as hazard mapping, high risk zone analysis and analysis of the characteristics and potential impacts of hazards.iv) Training and Capacity DevelopmentA majority of WMO Members identifies shortages of professional staff with appropriate training as a factor that limits their ability for hazard monitoring. Half or more of them also cite the lack of forecaster training as reducing the effectiveness of their hazard warning programmes. The lack of joint training with disaster risk authorities, the media and neighbouring NMHSs is also widely identified as a constraint. In addition, a large majority of NMHSs consider that inadequate awareness and understanding limits the public’s response to warnings. They wish to see expansion of outreach activities to enhance stakeholder and public understanding and inform them how to act in response to NMHSs’ warnings and advice. These survey responses point to widespread needs for increased emphasis on training NMHSs’ staff to provide the best possible products and services for disaster risk reduction, greater efforts to conduct joint training with key partners in the disaster community, and much greater attention to outreach activities.
30 Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Country Responses44/4892 %18/2282 %25/3474 %10/1283 %14/1974 %24/5254 %139 /187 Countries responded74% response rate
31 Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Country ResponsesScopeNumber of surveys receivedTotal number of countries% ResponseGlobal (WMO Members)13918774%Developing countries8513762%Least Developed countries255050%Africa (RA I)285254%Asia (RA II)34South America (RA III)101283%Central and North America (RA IV)182282%South-West Pacific (RA V)1419Europe (RA VI)444892%
32 Country-Level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Under estimatedCategoryPlanning & LegislationInfrastructure:ObservationForecastingTelecom.Data, Analysis and TechnicalCapacitiesPartnerships&Concept of Operations% countries1Need for development in all areas122Need for improvements in all areas423Self sufficientNeed for improvements in these areas264Could benefit from sharing of good practices practices and guidelines20Around 60% of the NMHS are challenged in meeting needs in DRM!
33 National DRR Implementation WMO is Establishing Strategic Partnerships with Agencies that Influence the National DRM Programmes and FundingPartnersAgency TypeCoordinationNational DRR ImplementationFundingWorld Bank(GFDRR)DevelopmentXISDRUNDPWFP, FAOHumanitarianUN- OCHAIFRCDonors (EC, etc)Donor33
34 Partnerships and ‘User-driven’service delivery WMO is addressing this challenge through national and regional projects with World Bank, UNDP, ISDR and othersPartnerships and ‘User-driven’service deliveryModernization of infrastructures (when needed)observing networks, forecasting and communicationData rescue and managment systemsTechnical training – Analysis and forecasting tools and methodologiesGenerating demand for Meteorological and Hydrological Services with the goal to direct sustainable government funding overtime for further improving and sustaining of these services
36 Systematic Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects (Europe)DRR Pilot South East Europe: 8 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO)DRR Pilot South East Asia: 5 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO)(Asia-Pacific)End-to-end EWS Pilot Central America: 3 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO, NOAA, IFRC)(North America & Carribeans)(South America)DRR Pilot Central Asia and Caucasus: 7 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO)(Asia)Shanghai Mega City Multi Hazard-EWS demo(Africa)Sever weather/Flash Flood Guidance /storm watch technical training (SADC)End-to-end EWS20072008200920102011
37 World Bank, ISDR, WMO initiative in South East Asia Initiated in 2009Goal: to strengthen institutional cooperation and coordination inRisk Management CapacitiesHydro meteorological servicesLaoVietnamCambodiaPhilippinesIndonesiaPhase I: Fact finding assessment and development of national and regional reports (Funded by GFDRR)(underway)
38 Trends and patterns of hazard are changing due to climate change (IPCC) Statistical analysis of historical data is only first estimate . Needs for forward looking information to augment statistical hazard analysis and mapping
39 Need for production of local climate information… Climate variability and change and their impacts are not uniform geographicallyDroughtsTrends in heavy rainfallTrends in Frost and Heat Waves(IPCC, 2007)Need for production of local climate information…Highly Resource Intensive!IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
40 Global/Regional/National Cooperation Framework For Provisions of Climate Services Four Major Thrusts:Understanding of information needs of at-risk sectorsThrough partnerships (with UN, international and regional agencies)Designation and coordination of network of global and regional climate centersto faciliate provision of forecasting and analysis tools and information to national centersStrengthen observation networksMore targeted climate research
41 Global/Regional Network of WMO Designated Climate Centers ECMWFMoscowExeterMontrealBeijingSeoulToulouseTokyoWashingtonLead Centre for LRFMMEPretoriaGobal Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs)Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)RCC Network Nodes (Pilot)MelbourneLead Centre for SVSLRFSVSLRF: Standardized Verification System for Long Range ForecastsLRFMME: Long Range Forecast Multi-Model EnsembleCLW/CLPA/WCAS
42 Geneva, Switzerland 31 August–4 September 2009 World Climate Conference-3 Better climate information for a better futureGeneva, Switzerland 31 August–4 September 2009
43 Climate Risk management Project in Africa WMO/World Bank Project in Africa Funded by GFDRR Countries: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and UgandaObjectives: Development of climate information based on observations and latest climate tools and forecasting technologiesSectors: Agriculture and water resource managementTimeline of data: Different climate scales up to 20 years:PartnersNational: NMHS, sectors representativesInternational/Regional: World Bank,Technical: GlobalClimate Centers (US, UK, ECMWF, Pretoria) and Regional centers (IGAD)Status: Project was launch on June 21World Bank project manager: Amal Talbi-Jordan
44 Thank You http://www.wmo.int/disasters For more information please contact:Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction ProgrammeWorld Meteorological OrganizationTelFax.
45 Increasing Risks under a Changing Climate EnergyWater ResourceManagementHeatwavesHeavy rainfall / FloodTropical CyclonesCoastal Marine HazardsStrong WindFood securityTransportIntensityHealthIndustryUrban areasVolnurability andExposure on the rise !Hazards’ intensity and frequency are increasingNeed fordisaster risk managementIntensity and frequency of various hydrometeorological hazards are likely to increase, as projected by the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).Given the demographic expansion in urban and coastal areas, appropriate planning and disaster risk management is now a critical component of climate change adaptation and sustainable development.Frequency
46 A comprehensive approach to DRR is critical for reducing risks Hyogo Framework for Action(World Conference on Disaster Reduction)WMOStrategic Plan(Top Level Objectives and Five Strategic Thrusts)Consultations with WMO governing bodies, Regional and National network and partnersWMO’s strategic goals in Disaster Risk Reduction are derived from Hyogo Framework for Action, pertaining to those high priority areas that fall under the mandate of WMO and NMHSs.WMO strategic prioritiesin Disaster Risk Reduction