1. 1 Systems Engineering Vision 2020 Presentation to Washington Metropolitan Area Chapter 9 May 2006 Dr. Harry E. Crisp Crisphe@aol.com

2. 2 Background SE Vision is one of the INCOSE Top 4 Projects Intent is to provide a consensus SE community document and to regularly update it Current focus areas include: - Future Systems - Public Systems -Model-Based SE - Global Systems Engineering Environment - Process Evolution - Human Roles - SE Education

3. 3 Background (Cont.) Format of the Vision: –Current State of the Practice –New/Emerging Drivers & Technologies –Inhibitors –Vision – State of the Art in 2010 –Vision – State of the Art in 2020

4. 4 Progress to Date –INCOSE International Workshop: January 2004 –Version 1.5 of the SE Vision: November 2005 http://www.incose.org/membersonly2005/ –INCOSE International Workshop: January 2006 –Conference on SE Research: April 2006

5. 5 IW 2006 SE Vision 2020 Workshop Future Systems Model-Based Systems Engineering Global Systems Engineering Environment Process Evolution Systems Engineering Education

6. 6 Global SE Environment State of the PracticeEmerging DriversInhibitors20102020 Awkward communications between companies and countries Some progress between professional organizations and societies Lack of consistent terminology and definitions Manufacturing base moving to China, Taiwan, Korea, etc. SW development is moving to India Regulatory issues drive SE in public policy Commercial enterprise SE drivers include multi-source resilience; changing nature of value chain Inherent tensions Cultural styles Language Terminology SE scalability to small projects IP protection Inability to articulate value of SE Inability to visualize the global system of systems context and environment Advanced systems theory, methods, and tools Interdisciplinary emphasis in engineering education Improved use/integration of engineering specialties Improved understanding of psychology languages and cultural differences Interdisciplinarity Agile enterprises Multiplicity of SoS SE environments for full collaboration, modeling and prediction

7. 7 SE Process Evolution State of PracticeEmerging DriversInhibitors20102020 Limited understanding and application of SE processes beyond defense and aerospace Lack of useful executable process models Disagreement on applicability of SE to socio-technical economic and political problems Perception that SE is burdensome and heavy-weight Drive to harmonize systems engineering process standards Greater agility, adaptability and robustness in defining and adapting SE processes Accelerating changes in user needs and external environments Technology advances Teaming for development Cultural resistance to change Terminology inconsistencies Lack of empowerment Focus on short- term profits Increased integration of engineering PM and business processes Better understanding of SE processes Executable models Harmonization across disciplines Process agility SE cost estimation models Cultural and process awareness Education and training of SEs support of SE vision Continuous process improvement Common lexicon that crosses sectors, domains and disciplines Only value-add processes get used

8. 8 Future Systems Emerging DriversInhibitors20102020 Role of humans in the entire system life cycle, rising expectations, disruptive technologies, rapid technology changes, integrity, robustness Affordability, sustainability, trust, health and social systems, global environment, anti- terrorism, transportation, national/international priorities, regulatory environment Systems of Systems, infrastructure (human and physical) Limited bandwidth, lack of collaboration, NIH syndrome, lack of interoperability standards, lack of SE theory and practice to handle complexity, silo disciplines Regulatory environment, government/user inflexibility; lack of systems thinking outside of engineering domain; failure of SE in prior systems efforts Lack of appropriate mature technology and processes, ingrained nature of legacy systems, inertia (e.g., cost of replacement, political legacy), business competition Regional scale SoS; some interconnected systems and communities of systems Experimenting with new SE approaches beyond the technical to include political, economic, legal, etc. Gathering experience on how to handle legacy, e.g., doing patch-up jobs and design through experimentation Extensive inter- connectedness, global scale SoS Stakeholders will have greater role in system requirements and acceptability; the range of environmental possibilities which may exist and are difficult to predict; new approaches incorporated from experiments Robust consideration of legacy in design environment including replacement of legacy elements as a deliberate strategy; infrastructure will have built-in upgradeability

9. 9 Model Based Systems Engineering State of PracticeEmerging DriversInhibitors20102020 Limited use of architectural framework Models not coherent and logically consistent –Campaign/mission models not integrated with engineering models –System to component –Across domain specific (electrical, …) –Inconsistent data sources and assumptions Lack of execution capabilities in tools Automated code generation and testing Emphasis on technology vs. human centric SysML just being adopted Complexity Shorten cycle time IT explosion Evolving profile of an SE User and customer acceptance Learning curve of MBSE Limited maturity of SYSML SYSML compatible tools Increased use of MBSE across life cycle Architecture model being used as unifying framework Higher degree of model cohesion –Disciplines Levels of design (system to component) –Models for development, production and delivery –Integration of models across life cycle –Integration between system design, analysis, and simulation models –Improved integration between models and empirical data (semi-empirical models) Executable specifications and design models including code generation Partly improved modeling of human interaction Effects based modeling / multiple relationships Composable federations which encapsulate proprietary data (SOA) Standard data exchange and improved data sharing (key to model integration) Fully coherent models (component to enterprise/business) Trustworthy models with easy, reliable and unambiguous data interchange Complete models including human interaction, social aspects, enabling systems Automated impacts across models Domain specific standard languages

10. 10 Systems Engineering Education State of PracticeEmerging DriversInhibitors20102020 Undergraduate level has changed little in past 10 years No standard at undergraduate level for defining SE education Some specialty/domain areas starting to infuse a systems view Struggling to fill open academic positions Globalization has become a major driver; virtual classroom is everywhere New technology requires constant refreshing of educational pursuit Still need to train engineers to operate existing systems and to think systematically to improve Environmental issues, natural disasters, global terrorist issues present different kinds of SE evaluations Relatively few engineers are educated in a systems manner SE not considered a science 4-year undergraduate program constraints push systems thinking to next level Most educators still teach using old methods Many employers do not understand value of people with broader system skills Expansion of SE thought into an expanded curriculum –Stable common core of SE courses for expanding traditional engineering disciplines Increased influence of the SE techniques in a technical society –Drug abuse prevention, homeland security, crime prevention, urban expansion, infrastructure development, etc. New techniques for SE education delivery –Just-in-time education; web- enabled education; information chunking Increased collaboration –Between management and SE; societies interested in SE; persons with interdisciplinary interests Curriculum expansion, collaboration, use of newer technologies will continue Influence of systems thinking will get applied to governments and large scale societal problem solving Use of technology will create major innovations for SE education –Simulation, visualization, gaming, etc.

11. 11 Common Themes 2010 & 2020 –Integrating and Managing Complexity –Rapidly Evolving & Unpredictable SE Environment –Leveraging Legacy Systems Assets with COTS –Increasing Realization SE is Multidisciplinary & Needs Collaborative Approaches –More Standardized Processes and Lexicon Needed –Increasing Need for SE Tools & Technology –Identifying, Responding to and Managing Disruptive Technologies

12. 12 Common Themes 2010 & 2020 –Increased Role of SE Education –Need for Better Collaboration Across University Departments, Professional Societies and SE Communities –Realization of the Pervasive Impact of Globalization on SE –Emergence of Family & System of Systems –Engineering of More Robust Processes and Systems –Better Integration of the Human is Important

13. 13 SE Vision forms a Framework Use outcome of SE Vision Workshops to construct a roadmap to achieve the vision Roadmap used to establish a collaboration framework Use best athlete approach to pair most capable organization with the work to be done – recognize that it wont always be us!

14. 14 Operating Environment Study Identify relevant organizations: –Leadership –Charters –Membership –Strengths & Weaknesses –Existing Liaisons / Partnerships with INCOSE

15. 15 Approach to Partnering with Other Professional Organizations Operating Environment Study Identify SE Vision Capability Needs Identify Who Can Best Address the Needs Determine Optimal Partnership Type Identify the Right INCOSE Liaison Establish the Partnership Maintain the Partnership

16. 16 Establishing Partnerships Adopt a more strategic approach for establishing partnerships with others: –Value to us –Cost to us versus payoff –Value to the profession –Other considerations? Define several levels of partnership depending on parameters identified above Strategically pick our liaison representatives

17. 17 Maintaining Partnerships Periodic Health Checks are needed to assure the partnership is still effective: –May require level adjustments –May require liaison changes –Should be closed when no longer productive Need to keep an accessible record of standing partnerships and associated liaisons

18. 18 Workshop At CSER06: Research Workshop At IW2007: Energy Workshop At IS2007: Complex Systems Workshop At CSER07: Education Workshop At IS2006: Modelling & Simulation Workshop At CSER08: Research Workshop At IS2008: Infrastructure SE Trends in SE Education Trends in SE Research Trends in SE Research Trends in Energy SE Trends in SE of Complex Systems Major Update Workshop At IW2006 Vision 1.5 Vision 3.0 Vision 2.0 Major Update Workshop At IW2008 Trends in Infrastructure SE Latest Vision document as input to workshop Trends document informs update of Vision Draft SE Vision Roadmap Trends in SE Modelling & Simulation