1. Space Weather Aviation Operational Needs
Bill Murtagh
NOAA Space Environment Center
Boulder, Colorado
David Boteler
Geological Survey of Canada
Ottawa, Ontario
The SEC Forecast Center is operated by NOAA and is the national and world warning center for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in the space environment.
Edmonton CPWG
September 2007

2. Space Weather Storms: Timing & Consequences
A Flare and/or Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) on the Sun
8 Minutes later: EUV and X-ray emission
Radio (HF) communications are lost
GPS signal loss
(mostly low and mid-latitude impacts for minutes to <hour)
30 – 1000 minutes later: Energetic Particle onset (Radiation Storm)
HF loss on Polar flights (hours to days)
Increased radiation threat
GPS degradation at high latitudes
Avionics impacted
1 – 4 Days later: Eruptive material (CME) arrives
GPS Systems are affected
Radio Communications are affected
Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

3. Meeting held at United Airlines World HQ, August 10, 2007
CPTEWG Space Weather Sub-group
“Aviation Space Weather User Requirements” Work Project
Meeting held at United Airlines World HQ, August 10, 2007
David Boteler Natural Resources Canada & International Space Environment Services (ISES)
Gene Cameron United Airlines (UA)
Bryn Jones AMS-SolarMetrics Policy Study (SMX)
Joe Kunches NOAA Space Environment Center (SEC)
Mike Stills United Airlines (UA)
Members not present
Genene Fisher AMS-SolarMetrics Policy Study (AMS)
Dave Rome NAV CANADA
Work of this CPTEWG Space Weather (SW) sub-group is to be carried out with reference to the AMS & SolarMetrics Policy Workshop Report “Integrating Space Weather Observations & Forecasts into Aviation Operations” and the Findings and Recommendations found in Section 2 (Policy Issue: Communication of Space Weather Information).
UA had been selected as the “operator” to lead this process. All
- work will be submitted to CPTEWG for full evaluation and comment by all
operators (airlines, business jet and ATC agencies)

4. Aviation & Space Weather Policy Study
Year 2 ( ):
Policy Workshop, Nov 06
Sponsors:
Highlights & Full Report online at:

5. Policy Workshop Recommendations
Improve Communication of Space Weather Information
Define requirements for space weather information and how it is incorporated into the operational decision making process
Cross Polar Trans East Working Group (CPTEWG), NOAA SEC, International Space Environment Services (ISES)
Deliver space weather information in an internationally agreed upon standardized format as defined by the aviation user requirements
ISES Regional Warning Centres, FAA
Increase the interaction between the aviation community and the space weather research and service provider community
NextGen sub-Groups, SESAR

6. The International Space Environment Service (ISES)
- The mission of the ISES is to encourage and facilitate near-real-time
international monitoring and prediction of the space environment.
- ISES provides standardized space environment products and services to
assist users reduce the impact of space weather on activities of human interest.
International Space Environment Service (ISES)

7. Spaceweather.org will provide one-stop shopping for space weather products in support of Polar operations
- Ensures consistency of forecast products
- Leverages resources of multiple agencies

8. User Requirements documentation will contain:
What is needed? (e.g., severity of storm, onset time, duration, regions & boundaries [lat, long])
b. When is it needed? Products needed to answer this question include: extended outlook, warning, alert, updates, and current conditions
c. How is it delivered? (e.g., graphic and text form,
formation to be pushed and pulled, integrated with
existing Ops systems).
FAA provided guidance to get requirements and related documentation in to the FAA acquisition process:
ConOps
Gap Analysis
Functional and Performance Requirements
Alternatives and Investment Analysis.

9. Establishing Requirements
Products (a first draft)
7-Day
24 hour
12 hour
6 hour
Current
Outlook X
Warning
Alert
Update
As needed
***SAMPLE***
Space Weather Outlook
06 December – 13 December 2007
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels, with isolated major flare activity possible.
HF communications will likely experience periods of blackout conditions at high latitudes due to solar radiation storms. A major radiation storm is possible. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active levels through 11 December, and quiet thereafter….

10. Radiation Storm Concerns…
Commercial Airlines
Business Jets, Airlines
Future Air Transport
Increasing Dose Rate
Radiation Storm Concerns…
The need for changes to the NOAA SEC Scale for Solar Radiation Storms was discussed:
S1 – S5 scales are based upon particle energies too low to have any significant effect
Scales are applicable elsewhere
SEC will explore a new scale or system for passenger and crew exposure in aircraft based upon particle energies ≥100MeV
SEC will discuss with airlines how to interpret current information with regard to human exposure from higher energy particles

11. Types of Products Polar cap absorption Auroral absorption
Phenomena are centered on the geomagnetic pole not the geographic pole. 
absorption occurs at distinctly different geographic latitudes x x

12. Graphical product could be provided, or data points for plotting on
Existing operational systems
Lat Long

13. Note that there is a marked day/night effect in the polar cap absorption

14. Improve existing products…

15. Impact Areas Avionics Communications Humans GNSS R I S K
Identified key impact areas are: avionics, Comms (HF, UHF, VHF), human exposures, and effects on Global Navigation Satellite Systems
Technological Development