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Center for Nonproliferation Studies Monterey Institute of International Studies CNS Open-Source Information Collection Dr. John W.R. Lepingwell.

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Presentation on theme: "Center for Nonproliferation Studies Monterey Institute of International Studies CNS Open-Source Information Collection Dr. John W.R. Lepingwell."— Presentation transcript:

1 Center for Nonproliferation Studies Monterey Institute of International Studies CNS Open-Source Information Collection Dr. John W.R. Lepingwell

2 The Monterey Institute of International Studies q Private educational institution q Graduate education to Masters degree q International emphasis, stress on language training q 800 students, many foreign students q Degree programs in: International Policy StudiesInternational Policy Studies International Environmental PolicyInternational Environmental Policy Business Administration (MBA)Business Administration (MBA) Translation and InterpretationTranslation and Interpretation

3 The Center for Nonproliferation Studies q Founded 1989 by Dr. William Potter Expertise in Soviet/Russian StudiesExpertise in Soviet/Russian Studies Expertise in Nonproliferation IssuesExpertise in Nonproliferation Issues Post-1991: Combining both areas to emphasize nonproliferation issues in the former Soviet UnionPost-1991: Combining both areas to emphasize nonproliferation issues in the former Soviet Union q Training and Research Center q 40 Staff members, 50 Graduate Assistants

4 CNS Mission The mission of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies is to combat the spread of weapons of mass destruction by training the next generation of nonproliferation specialists and disseminating timely information and analysis

5 CNS Staff q 40+ Full-Time Professional Staff (13 Ph.D.s) q Over 50 Graduate Assistants q Offices in Washington and Almaty Arabic Arabic Chinese Chinese Czech Czech Farsi Farsi French French German German Hebrew Hebrew Hindi Hindi Italian Italian Japanese Japanese Korean Korean Punjabi Punjabi Portuguese Portuguese Russian Russian Spanish Spanish Swedish Swedish Turkish Turkish Uzbek Uzbek Fluent in Many Languages

6 CNS: Diverse Backgrounds q Government: ACDA, DOE, OTA, Senate Staff, Canadian Foreign MinistryACDA, DOE, OTA, Senate Staff, Canadian Foreign Ministry q Military: Air Force, Navy, Army, Turkish NavyAir Force, Navy, Army, Turkish Navy q Academia: Political Science, MicrobiologyPolitical Science, Microbiology

7 What Does CNS Do? q Training, Databases, Research: A Virtuous Circle q Training Student coursework is augmented by research work on the databasesStudent coursework is augmented by research work on the databases q Databases Enhanced by diverse student talents and language abilitiesEnhanced by diverse student talents and language abilities q Research Based upon the rich data-collection system used for the databasesBased upon the rich data-collection system used for the databases

8 Training the Next Generation of Nonproliferation Experts q Certificate in Nonproliferation Studies Part of the International Policy Studies programPart of the International Policy Studies program q Building a network of nonproliferation specialists in the NIS Visiting Fellows Program/Core Group MeetingsVisiting Fellows Program/Core Group Meetings MEPhI (MIFI) Training ProgramMEPhI (MIFI) Training Program Assistance to NGOs in the NISAssistance to NGOs in the NIS q Building networks in East Asia Visiting Fellows ProgramVisiting Fellows Program Track 1.5 diplomacyTrack 1.5 diplomacy

9 CNS Research Programs q International Nuclear and Missile Proliferation q NIS Nonproliferation Project q East Asia Nonproliferation Project q Chemical and Biological Weapons Nonproliferation q International Organizations and Nonproliferation q Journal: The Nonproliferation Review q NO classified or secret research

10 Recent Publications and Conferences q The Nonproliferation Review Published three times per yearPublished three times per year q Nuclear Successor States of the Former Soviet Union (Annual) q Washington Intensive Nonproliferation Seminars (WINS) q Stanford/LLNL/MIIS Conference on Comparative MPCA q Website publications and information:

11 CNS and Policy Issues An independent voice on nonproliferation issues q Not an advocacy organization: emphasis is on research and training q Work with US Government and other governments on many issues q US Government does not dictate CNS views or actions

12 Why Databases? q First database created in 1986 to exploit low-cost information technology, untapped open sources of information q Both technology and sources have grown tremendously over last decade q Open sources provide some early warning indicators q Inform CNS analyses and provide information to other researchers and policymakers

13 CNS Database Resources q Information Collections Branch 2 staff members, 15 students2 staff members, 15 students Monitors global information sourcesMonitors global information sources q CRES Library 1 staff member, 12 students1 staff member, 12 students Monitors former Soviet Union mediaMonitors former Soviet Union media q Database Staff 12 full-time staff in projects12 full-time staff in projects q Information Technology Staff 4 full-time staff4 full-time staff

14 Open Source Data q CNS has a comprehensive open source collection system Global, multilingual coverageGlobal, multilingual coverage >300 Sources Systematically Searched>300 Sources Systematically Searched Trade and Popular MediaTrade and Popular Media Rich Gray Literature SourcesRich Gray Literature Sources Extensive coverage of NIS via CRES LibraryExtensive coverage of NIS via CRES Library q CNS uses only unclassified data No limitations on distribution/use of databasesNo limitations on distribution/use of databases

15 Open Sources and CNS q Monitor Nonproliferation Regimes Through Open Sources Provide information for policy research, analysisProvide information for policy research, analysis Inform debate on nonproliferation issuesInform debate on nonproliferation issues Early warning of proliferation threatsEarly warning of proliferation threats Supplement governmental information and viewsSupplement governmental information and views

16 Representative Sources q AEROSPACE, ARMS CONTROL, DEFENSE: Aerospace DailyAerospace Daily Arms Sales MonitorArms Sales Monitor Intl Defense ReviewIntl Defense Review Pakistan AffairsPakistan Affairs Cruise Missile DigestCruise Missile Digest q GOVT. & INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS IAEA Info. CircularIAEA Info. Circular UNIDIR ReportsUNIDIR Reports GAO ReportsGAO Reports Congressional TestimonyCongressional Testimony q ON-LINE SERVICES: FBISFBIS ReuterReuter UPIUPI Lexis-NexisLexis-Nexis Inquisit AgentInquisit Agent InterfaxInterfax q NUCLEAR, TRADE PUBLICATIONS: Bulletin of Atomic ScientistsBulletin of Atomic Scientists Export Control NewsExport Control News Nuclear FuelNuclear Fuel PlutoniumPlutonium

17 Who, What, Where, When, and Why in Nonproliferation q Technology Transfer q Illicit Transactions q Indigenous Developments q Country-to-Country Relationships q National Attitudes and Policies q Status of Treaties & International Agreements

18 CNS Information Life Cycle Input Output Newspapers Periodicals Government Documents Technical Journals Database Chronologies Decision Making Analysis Abstracting Checking Correcting Proofing Culling / Sorting / Distributing ICB

19 CNS Databases q Monitoring Proliferation Threats: Nuclear Material & TechnologyNuclear Material & Technology Ballistic & Cruise MissilesBallistic & Cruise Missiles q NIS Nonproliferation Databases NIS Nuclear ProfilesNIS Nuclear Profiles NIS Import/Export DatabaseNIS Import/Export Database NIS Nuclear Trafficking DatabaseNIS Nuclear Trafficking Database q China Nonproliferation Profile Database

20 Monitoring Proliferation Threats Broad Coverage/Transaction-Oriented q Nuclear Abstracts q Started 1986 Nuclear Material & Technology Nuclear Material & Technology Technology Transfer Technology Transfer Indigenous Developments Indigenous Developments q Missile Abstracts q Started 1990 International Missile Trade and Production International Missile Trade and Production WMD Delivery SystemsWMD Delivery Systems Ballistic MissilesBallistic Missiles Cruise Missiles/RPVsCruise Missiles/RPVs

21 CNS Abstracting Process q Extract Information on Nonproliferation q Concise Format, High Information Density q Abstract Databases Reports minimally filtered--allows the analyst to judge the reports veracityReports minimally filtered--allows the analyst to judge the reports veracity q 25,000 Abstracts in the Nuclear and Missile Databases q Access Information by Searching Database by Word or Date (Boolean)

22 MPT Abstract Databases q Nuclear Abstracts Nuclear Abstracts Nuclear Abstracts Information on who is transferring whatInformation on who is transferring what Allows quick, comprehensive search of nuclear transaction informationAllows quick, comprehensive search of nuclear transaction information q Missile Abstracts Missile Abstracts Missile Abstracts Allows comparison of nuclear and missile transaction patternsAllows comparison of nuclear and missile transaction patterns Wide range of coverageWide range of coverage

23 Compound Abstracts Bibliography: Executive News Service, 1/15/95 Headline: France Wins $2.83 B ln Nuclear Contract With China Headline: France Wins $2.83 B ln Nuclear Contract With China Orig. Source: Reuter, 1/15/95, by Mark O'Neill NOTE: Reuter reports that the reactors will be 900 MW, but Nuclear News describes the reactors as 1000 MWe, three-loop PWRs....Chinese firms will carry out the construction on the Lingao extension of the Daya Bay plant under the supervision of Framatome and GEC Alsthom [1]. EDF will train the Chinese plant operators [2]. Construction could begin prior to 1996, and the plants are Chinese plant operators [2]. Construction could begin prior to 1996, and the plants are expected to begin operating in 2002 and 2003 [3].... expected to begin operating in 2002 and 2003 [3].... Supporting Sources: [1] Ann MacLachlan, Nucleonics Week, 1/19/95, pp. 1, 9-10, "China Strikes Deal With French For Two New PWRs At Lingao Site." Deal With French For Two New PWRs At Lingao Site." [2] David Buchan, Financial Times, 1/12/95, p. 3, "France To Seek China N-Deal." N-Deal." [3] Nuclear News, 2/95, p. 17, "France Has Won Contracts From China."

24 NIS Nonproliferation Databases q NIS Nuclear Profiles q NIS Nuclear Trafficking q NIS Import/Export Database

25 NIS Nuclear Profiles An Electronic Reference Book q Comprehensive overview of the NIS nuclear infrastructure and policies q Facilities emphasis, strong MPC&A orientation q Full-text sections featuring original documents q Analyses and overviews by CNS staff q In HTML for easy navigation and searching q Extensive full-text section with original documents q Over 1,600 HTML pages, more than 40 MB q Updated monthly

26 NIS Databases q Nuclear Trafficking Database Abstracts of reports of illicit trafficking in radioactive materials in/from the NISAbstracts of reports of illicit trafficking in radioactive materials in/from the NIS Soon to be in HTML with additional summary tables and analysisSoon to be in HTML with additional summary tables and analysis q NIS Import/Export Database Abstracts of NIS Nuclear Imports/ExportsAbstracts of NIS Nuclear Imports/Exports Subset of the Nuclear Exports DatabaseSubset of the Nuclear Exports Database

27 China Nonproliferation Database q Comprehensive Coverage of Chinas Nonproliferation Policy Nuclear, Missile, Chemical, Conventional Arms, and Export ControlsNuclear, Missile, Chemical, Conventional Arms, and Export Controls Overviews, Analyses, Quick-Reference TablesOverviews, Analyses, Quick-Reference Tables Full-text Source Material from China and Other StatesFull-text Source Material from China and Other States HTML Database--Flexible and SearchableHTML Database--Flexible and Searchable Incorporates Chinese textIncorporates Chinese text

28 Database Uses q Export Control Patterns in reported exportsPatterns in reported exports Allegations of illegal exports/importsAllegations of illegal exports/imports q Proliferation Indicators Imports/Exports/StatementsImports/Exports/Statements Development of delivery vehiclesDevelopment of delivery vehicles q Quick Reference (Profiles) What does a facility do?What does a facility do? Is a country party to a treaty?Is a country party to a treaty? Where is fissile material located?Where is fissile material located?

29 Proliferation Databases Subscribers include: q UNSCOM q Australian MOD q CSIS q Japan (CISTEC) q Swedish MOD q UK MOD, FCO q BND q VNIITF q IPPE q IAEA q OSD/Policy q JSOC q DOE q ACDA q NIWA q LLNL q LANL

30 Database Details q Webserver or CD-ROM Versions Can also load files on intranetCan also load files on intranet q Subscription Rates Depend On: number of databasesnumber of databases update frequency (CD-ROM) update frequency (CD-ROM) number of usersnumber of users q Wide Compatibility (Search 97)

31 Database Enhancements for 1999 q Verity Search Engine q NIS Databases in HTML and Cross- Linked q New NIS Profiles Export Section Analyses of export transactions with countries of concernAnalyses of export transactions with countries of concern q New NIS Missile Facilities Sections

32 Summary q Wide range of databases in nuclear and missile proliferation q Both unfiltered abstract databases and filtered, structured country profiles q Technology upgrade program underway q Experience in developing new databases


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