1. SAFEFOODERA Stakeholder Group Meeting with Retailers – Emerging Risks – Ljubljana, 8 - 9 February 2007

2. Why Emerging Risk Identification? timely recognition of critical situations increased number of options for action to risk managers

3. Emerging risk identification crucial part of any coherent, effective and dynamic food policy

4. Europe: Article 34 of Regulation (EC) No. 178/2002... [EFSA].... shall establish monitoring procedures for systematically searching for, collecting, collating and analysing information and data with a view to the identification of emerging risks in the fields within its mission. major preventative instrument

5. usually neglected: long-term consequences and impacts of factors outside the food chain not incorporated adequately: various interacting processes which influence the evolution of a risk often ignored: human factor (only simplistic or standardised schemes of behaviour) Limitations of Risk Analysis

6. PERIAPT- Workshop (Bonn, July 2004) International Organisations Research institutions Industry Consumer Organisations Governmental Bodies

7. Hazard a biological, chemical or physical agent in, or condition of, food or feed with the potential to cause an adverse health effect Definitions Article 3 of Regulation (EC) No. 178/2002 Risk a function of the probability of an adverse health effect and the severity of that effect, consequential to a hazard

8. Emerging Risk a potential food or feed borne or diet-related hazard that may become a risk for human health in the (near) future Definitions Periapt 2004

9. AWACS (Airborne Early Warning and Control System) The detected indicator (signal) is the hazard itself! Early Warning System: AWACS

10. D A R T Deep-Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis Early Warning System: Tsunami The detected indicator (signal) is the hazard itself!

11. Weather Balloon (Antarctica) Drought (Africa) Flooding (Prague) Observed indicators are not part of the hazard but (possibly) suitable to detect a risk proactively Pro-active Methodology: Climate Forecast

12. Emerging Risks: The Holistic Approach Food Safety Science and Technology Culture/ Demography Economy Media Nature Environment Consumer behavior Regulations/ enforcement Agriculture Industry Analysing the environment of the food supply chain.

13. Economy Globalisation increasing complexity of food production chain – limitations in traceability Nature & Environment Climate modified behaviour of microorganisms could lead to new or different biological food risks.. Holistic Vision

14. Flow diagram holistic approach Periapt 2004 Influential sectorsCritical factorsIndicators Nature & Environment Climate Rainfall & Temperature Example: Emerging risk of contamination of crop by mycotoxin-producing moulds

15. Threats: interdisciplinary, complex and global issue Status in 5 – 15 years: Will fish from the arctic regions still be safe to eat?

16. Key characteristics of an Emerging Risk Identification System anticipatory approach process no replacement of Early Warning Systems

17. What to do? pro-active identification of food related risks consideration of plurality of involved factors; identification and weighing of key issues combination of specialised knowledge from various disciplines consideration of changing factors

18. Thank you for your attention!