1. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 EURAINSAT European Satellite Rainfall Analysis and Monitoring at the Geostationary Scale V. Levizzani Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche Istituto di Scienze dell’Atmosfera e del Clima Bologna and all EURAINSAT Scientists

2. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 Increasing demand for local and global products for: Products for developing countries (e.g. Africa) Monitoring of remote areas Applications to short range forecasting and nowcasting Agriculture (crop control, irrigation,…) Assimilation into NWP models (eg. latent heat nudging, physical initialization,…) Weather modification … Climate and Global Change Large underestimation of the role of precipitation processes

3. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 In particular, for meteorology: Instantaneous rapid update estimates for hydrology: Disaster management (eg. Flash flood); Use in coupled LAM + hydrological models that include runoff. Identification of orographic enhancement and monitoring of extreme events. Correct determination of precipitation not only in case of deep convection, but also for frontal and stratiform rainfall in general.

4. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 What is EURAINSAT? A shared-cost project (contract EVG1-2000-00030) co-funded by the Research DG of the European Commission within the RTD activities of a generic nature of the Environment and Sustainable Development sub-programme (5 th Framework Programme). Funded over a 3-year period starting January 1 st, 2001. What is the main purpose? Develop new satellite rainfall estimation methods at the geostationary scale for an operational use in short and very short range weather monitoring and forecasting. Who are the key target users? The project is very much application-oriented and natural users are to be found among:  National and regional met services,  Basin authorities,  International agencies (WMO, FAO, …),  National and international space agencies,  National agencies for civil and environmental protection,  Institutions for the protection against hydrogeological risks,  Air traffic control centers,  Research institutions,  Industry, agriculture, …

5. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 The Consortium: ITALY V. Levizzani, A. Buzzi, F. Tampieri CNR – Istituto di Scienze dell’Atmosfera e dell’Oceano, Bologna A. Mugnai CNR – Istituto di Fisica dell’Atmosfera, Roma F. Meneguzzo Laboratorio per la Meteorologia e le Modellistica Ambientale (LAMMA), Firenze F. S. Marzano Univ. dell’Aquila, Dip. di Ingegneria Elettrica, Monteluco di Roio F. Prodi Univ. di Ferrara, Dip. di Fisica, Ferrara ISRAEL D. Rosenfeld, A. Khain Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Institute of Earth Sciences, Jerusalem GERMANY M. Kästner German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen UNITED KINGDOM C. Kidd Univ. of Birmingham, School of Geography and Environmental Sci., Edgbaston, Birmingham EURAINSAT - European Satellite Rainfall Analysis and Monitoring at the Geostationary Scale

6. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 EXTERNAL STEERING AND COOPERATION: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK, P. Bauer European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, Darmstadt, Germany, J. Schmetz European Space Agency, Nordwijk, The Netherlands, J. P. V. Poiares Baptista NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, E. A. Smith Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California, J. F. Turk NOAA-NESDIS, Office of Research and Applications, Silver Springs, Maryland, J. F. W. Purdom Raytheon ITSS, Distributed Active Archive Center, NASA-GSFC, Greenbelt, Maryland, G. A. Vicente World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, D. E. Hinsman EURAINSAT - European Satellite Rainfall Analysis and Monitoring at the Geostationary Scale

7. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 Research activities: èPrecipitating system structure èQuantitative rainfall estimations Operational Meteorology èAssimilation into NWP Local Area Models

8. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 To combined estimates that are more Microphysically correct, Linked to operational requirements, To be assimilated into NWP models From simple VIS-IR MW estimates Through: Multispectral cloud microphysical characterization Cloud modeling Rapid update cycles

9. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 METEOSAT Second Generation (MSG)

10. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 MSGMeteosat 1.4-km (hi-res visible) 4.8-km (others) 2.25-km (visible) 5-km (others) On-Earth pixel resolution 15-minutes30-minutesUpdate cycle 1-km (hi-res visible) 3-km (others) 2.25-km (visible) 4.5-km (others) Sampling distance 9.38-9.44 12.4-14.4 Pseudo-sounding 3.48-4.36 8.30-9.10 9.80-11.80 11.0-13.0 11.5Infrared windows 5.35-7.15 6.85-7.85 6.4Water vapor spectrum 0.75  m broadband 0.56-0.71 0.74-0.88 1.50-1.78 0.5-0.9 m Visible spectrum MSG Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI)

11. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 Using MODIS prior to the MSG Launch Wavelength (  m) Transmittance AMSR-E SSM/I AMSU-A,B CloudSat

12. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 Key target areas and experiments

13. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 IOP 2 18-21 Sept. 1999 Frontal system and heavy rain over the Lago Maggiore region (NW Italy and Switzerland) IOP 5 2-5 Oct. 1999 Frontal passage and cyclogenesis over Northern Italy IOP 8 20-22 Oct. 1999 Persistent lifting of stable air during a frontal passage over the Alps IOP 15 5-10 Nov. 1999 Cold frontal passage over the Alps

14. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 UK and Northern Europe Light and/or Sustained rain 30 Oct. 2000 UK and Europe sustained rain from several subsequent storms 28 June 2001 Insignificant rain over the UK. Interesting case to test the sensitivity of rain algorithms to very light rain.

15. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 Climatological areas Europe and Africa

16. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 Areas for cloud microphysics

17. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 Strategies 1.Use of new active and passive sensors: MW instruments VIS/IR/NIR channels Precipitation radars 2.Development of hybrid IR/MW rainfall algorithms in rapid update 3.Assimilation of rainfall fields in NWP models

18. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 TRMM VIRS image of fires, smoke and clouds over Kalimantan, Indonesia, from 1 March 1998, 02:50 UTC. The color is composed of: red for visible reflectance, green for 3.7 m reflectance (approximating r e ), and blue for the inverse of 10.8 m brightness temperature. The northwest coast of the island is denoted by the yellow line. The small orange areas on the upper right (east) corner are hot spots indicating the fires. The smoke, streaming from the hot spots south-westward, is indicated by the fuzzy purple color of the background. The smoke-free background is blue. This color scheme shows clouds with small droplets (r e 15 m) are colored pink, and cold ice clouds appear red. The black hatching marks the areas in which the TRMM radar detected precipitation. Vertical cross section along the line AB in the above figure, where the left end is point A and the right end correspond to point B. The gray area is the clouds, as measured by their top temperature. The colors represent the precipitation reflectivity, in dBZ, as measured by the TRMM radar. The white line is the brightness temperature of the TRMM Microwave Imager 85 GHz vertical polarization, plotted at the altitude of that temperature. Rosenfeld, D., 1999: TRMM observed first direct evidence of smoke from forest fires inhibiting rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26 (20), 3105-3108. Impact of smoke particles on cloud microstructure and precipitation…

19. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002

20. Stratiform Convective Normalized LIS event vs maximum reflectivity Maximum Reflectivity & Lightning Events Dietrich et al., 2001

21. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 Strategies 1.Use of new active and passive sensors: MW instruments VIS/IR/NIR channels Precipitation radars 2.Development of hybrid IR/MW rainfall algorithms in rapid update 3.Assimilation of rainfall fields in NWP models

22. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 Elements of a Global Precipitation Analysis Rapidly updated IR- based observations Infrequent microwave- based rainfall estimates Global or regional- scale model forecast Orographic adjustment, cloud growth/decay adjustment microphysical information space-time information dynamical information

23. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 An Information Transfer Perspective Denotes equally-spaced geostationary-based IR observation Denotes non-routine, non-equally spaced microwave-based observation In essence, the procedure is an information-transfer. How much and for how long is microphysical information from past microwave overpasses maintained? What are the best techniques to forward-propagate past information (microwave observations, multispectral IR observations)? t0t0 t -1 t -2 t +1 etc. Shaded box represents the previous-time “window” prior to t 0

24. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 24-hour accumulations from merged microwave sensors (F-11,13,14,15; TRMM) 24-hour accumulations from geostationary-based technique 2000/04/27 1200 UTC

25. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 21 June 2001. Daily rainfall totals (mm) from a combined microwave-infrared rainfall estimation technique. Infrared cloud top brightness temperatures are calibrated using passive microwave estimates updated on a daily basis. Data fusion and artificial neural networks are also being evaluated. Chris Kidd, Univ. of Birmingham, UK.

26. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 24-hour accumulations from geostationary- based technique 2000/05/16 0300 UTC Local flood event in southwest coast is captured 24-hour accumulations from merged microwave sensors (F-11,13,14,15; TRMM) 2000/05/16 0300 UTC Limited overpasses over Italian coast Some possible false identification in Alps

27. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 Strengths/Weaknesses To combined estimates that are: Microphysically correct, Linked to operational requirements, To be assimilated into NWP models Through: Multispectral cloud microphysical characterization Cloud modeling Mesoscale Forecasts Rapid update cycles Space/Time information From simple rainfall estimate using: VIS  IR (GOES/MSG/MODIS) Microwave (SSM/I, TRMM, AMSU, AMSR) Orographic adjustment Ancillary Data: Strengths: Convective-based rain systems Typically heaviest rain locations Slower moving systems, e.g., tropical cyclones Accumulations on a daily scale or longer Adaptation to daily changes Correlations near 0.6 with land gauge data Well-suited for insertion into numerical models Soil moisture analysis (land data assimilation) Weaknesses: Defining the rain/no-rain threshold Areas of light (< 0.5 mm/hr) precipitation tend to be too widespread Fast moving mid-latitude systems Insufficient observations of precipitation development from necessary spectral regions Movement over areas of complex topography  Proper accounting for orographic precipitation and rain shadowing effects 24-hr AccumulationsCOAMPS Surface WindsTopography Adjusted

28. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 Strategies 1.Use of new active and passive sensors: MW instruments VIS/IR/NIR channels Precipitation radars 2.Development of hybrid IR/MW rainfall algorithms in rapid update 3.Assimilation of rainfall fields in NWP models

29. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 If R sat > R for increase q over saturation q new (z) = q satur (z) + c(t,z) (R sat -R for ) if R sat < R for decrease q q new (z) = q satur (z) + d(t,z) (R sat -R for )  {q(z) – q ref (z)} where q ref (z) is the reference humidity profile and c and d are nudging coefficients.

30. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 First results

31. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 Calabria Flood 8 Sept 2000 1030 UTC MODIS ch02 0.86 m

32. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 Calabria Flood 9 Sept 2000 0935 UTC MODIS ch02 0.86 m

33. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 Features of the FSU Superensemble Forecast System: èReal-time assimilation of SSMI, TRMM 2A12, and blended microwave/IR rain rate algorithms and techniques via a physical initialization (ie, reverse initialization) èForecast uses multi-analysis forecasts (12 different models) and statistics from a training phase to produce superensemble forecasts of precipitation èDay 2 and 3 forecasts show improved skill in precipitation forecast compared to operational models that do not employ physical initialization èThis forecast technique is promising for the prediction and guidance of extreme rain events in flood prone areas T.N.Krishnamurti, FSU J.F.Turk, NRL

34. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 12 UTC September 8, 2000: Observed and 1,2,3-day forecasted average precipitation

35. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 Orographic Conditions: California frontal passage January 11, 2001 0000 UTC

36. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 6 October, 1998 METEOSAT-7 IR image SSM/I 85-GHz Brightness Temperature 24-h rainfall accumulation (mm) 20-GHz Path Attenuation at 0600 UTC F. S. Marzano – Univ. of L’Aquila

37. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 Want to know about the future? We will not only think in terms of: Using single satellite platforms Adopting a synergy of satellites conceived for different uses What’s boiling in the pot?

38. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002

39. International Precipitation Working Group (IPWG) co-sponsored by Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites (CGMS) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Co-chairs Arnold Gruber, NOAA-NESDIS Vincenzo Levizzani, ISAC-CNR The IPWG is established to foster the:  Development of better measurements, and improvement of their utilization;  Improvement of scientific understanding;  Development of international partnerships.

40. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 1st Meeting in Ft. Collins, CO CSU, 20-22 June, 2001

41. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 International Precipitation Working Group (IPWG) The objectives of the IPWG are: èto promote standard operational procedures and common software for deriving precipitation measurements from satellites; èto establish standards for validation and independent verification of precipitation measurements derived from satellite data; including: reference standards for the validation of precipitation for weather, hydrometeorological and climate applications; standard analysis techniques that quantify the uncertainty of ground-based measurements over relevant time and space scales needed by satellite products; èto devise and implement regular procedures for the exchange of data on inter-comparisons of operational precipitation measurements from satellites; èto stimulate increased international scientific research and development in this field and to establish routine means of exchanging scientific results and verification results; èto make recommendations to national and international agencies regarding the utilization of current and future satellite instruments on both polar and geostationary platforms; and èto encourage regular education and training activities with the goal of improving global utilization of remote sensing data for precipitation measurements.

42. CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002 http://www.isao.bo.cnr.it/~eurainsat