Presentation on theme: "Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 1 John Harrison B.Sc. B.Ec. FCPA TecEco Managing Director Facing the Sustainability Challenge Seminar 11."— Presentation transcript:
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 1 John Harrison B.Sc. B.Ec. FCPA TecEco Managing Director Facing the Sustainability Challenge Seminar 11 th June 2008 Making the Right Decisions for the Long Term
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 2 The Atmosphere Source: Sam Nelson Greenbase Source: IPCC Source: http://en.wikipedia.o rg/wiki/Earth's_atmo sphere 17 Feb 08 Even if the annual flow of emissions was frozen today, the level of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere would still reach double its pre-industrial levels by 2050. In fact, emissions are increasing rapidly and the level of 550 ppm could be reached as early as 2035. Stern review Executive Summary Page 3 para 6 The Challenge is to Keep the Atmosphere Stable. To do this we must take a long term view and engineer a new way for us to live.
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 3 CO 2 in the Atmosphere Gigaton CO 2 Year BAU Emissions 450 ppm ? ? CO2 in the Atmosphere
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 4 Balancing CO2 in the Atmosphere The problem is fundamentally one of CO 2 balance, not emissions There are two ways the CO 2 in the atmosphere can be balanced By reducing emissions. By using (sequestering) at least as much carbon as we produce. Both strategies require technological change on a scale never before imagined. A high long term high price for carbon to drive investment that will result in this change.
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 5 Where are we? The Kyoto Protocol A treaty intended to implement the objectives and principles agreed in the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Requires governments to agree to quantified limits on their greenhouse gas emissions, through sequential rounds of negotiations for successive commitment periods. The Kyoto treaty is the result of political negotiation and diplomatic compromise and on the surface not a lot more than short term promises to reduce emissions that make politicians look good, but that their successors cannot possibly keep. The Kyoto treaty is not a viable strategy for survival in the future - A treaty agreeing to a long term plan is required. Constraint With lots of silly targets with no strategy for their achievement Talk about Carbon Capture and Storage Not a lot else
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 6 World Economic Growth and Energy Intensity Source: DOE – Energy Information Administration at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/carbonemiss/chapter1.html http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/carbonemiss/chapter1.html GDP is rising on a per capita basis and because of population growth. At the same time due to technological improvements that have resulted in increasing thermodynamic efficiencies as well as some sectoral change energy consumption per unit of GDP (energy intensity) has been falling. As a result emissions have not been rising as fast as GDP.
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 7 The Correlation Between WIP and Emissions World Industrial Product (deflated world `GDP' in real value - i.e. World physical production). CO2 emissions (in CO2 mass units: Doubling time = 29 years. Data: CDIAC; statistics: GDI. The correlation between the WIP and the CO2 emissions is still however very high. Source: Di Fazio, Alberto, The fallacy of pure efficiency gain measures to control future climate change, Astronomical Observatory of Rome and the Global Dynamics Institute
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 8 The correlation between emissions and GDP is high because: Fossil fuels supply > 90% of the world's energy. Energy is used to produce goods (WIP) Only in recent years have we been seriously trying to improve efficiency (most of the Kyoto effort) there has been a shift to services with lower CO 2 intensity Energy ~ Money ? The Correlation Between WIP and Emissions
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 9 The Limits to Efficiency Improvements There are may ways the second law of thermodynamics can be enunciated but relevant to us is Lord Kelvins version. It is impossible to convert heat completely into work Using Carnots law it is possible to calculate the theoretical maximum efficiency of any heat engine such as a power station turbine or engine of a car, bus or train. (Try the calculator at http://hyperphysics.phy- astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/carnot.html) http://hyperphysics.phy- astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/carnot.html Most heat engines run at much lower efficiencies than the theoretical limit so there is still scope for improvements however the law of diminishing returns applies in terms of cost.
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 10 Efficiency Limitations to Emissions Reduction Per capita emissions reduction through Pilzer 1 st law substitution (Technology change = resource use change) Rate of Per Capita Emissions Reduction The Future 2008 Per capita emissions reduction through thermodynamic efficiency Total per capita emissions reduction Conclusion: It is essential that R& D into substitution technologies occurs now in order to ramp up Pilzer first law substitution later and avoid thermodynamic constraints. This is not happening in Australia
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 11 What We Dont Want to Talk About Developed Countries Undeveloped Countries Global population, consumption per capita and our footprint on the planet are continuing to rise strongly. ? ? A Planet in Crisis Demographic Explosion => The paradox: Affluence = Population Control
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 12 Kyoto Strategies are not Working Assuming Kyoto commitments are met (which is unlikely) it is estimated that global emissions will be 41% higher in 2010 than in 1990, 1% less than without Kyoto. A solution is needed of the utmost urgency to preserve history for many, many generations to come. Sir Richard Branson at the launch of the Virgin Earth Prize Ford M, Matyseka M, et al. (2006). Perspectives on international climate policy. Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society 50th Annual Conference, Sydney, ABARE. www.aares.info/files/2006_matysek.pdf. We are tracking on worst case scenarios. Whetton, P, Leader, Climate Impacts & Risk Group, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Vic, Australia in presentation Climate Change: What is the science telling us?
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 13 Fossil Fuel Usage Continues to Rise
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 14 Oil will However Decline The current round of inflation has less to do with dangerous underlying demand than with real shortages in oil. Crippling our economy by cranking up interest rates is about the most stupid thing a government can do as the economy needs to be in good shape to adapt to resource use change. Where is the R & D for oil replacement?
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 15 Frightening Graphs from ABARE Global primary energy consumption projections Global primary energy consumption fuel mix Composition of Aust Government energy research and development in 2002 Global primary energy consumption by fuel mix, 2050
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 16 Global greenhouse gas emissions Sources of abatement: global technology + partnership CCS Ford M, Matyseka M, et al. (2006). Perspectives on international climate policy. Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society 50th Annual Conference, Sydney, ABARE. www.aares.info/files/2006_matysek.pdf. More Frightening Graphs from ABARE An over emphasis on geosequestration (CCS)?
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 17 Reducing the CO2 in the air without Curtailing GDP The challenge is to find ways of reducing CO2 in the air without negatively impacting the economy. Substitution to Non Fossil Fuel Sources of Energy Geothermal, Wind, Solar etc. Nuclear Sequestration on a Massive Scale Geo-sequestration (clean coal, hydrogen fuel etc.) - limited Anthropogenic sequestration in the built environment - our preferred option
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 18Geosequestration Is not safe due to leakage (China recently?) Is not likely to be ready before 2015 for coal fired power stations in Australia Authoritative published studies estimate the cost of geosequestration at between $30- $140/tCO 2. (a wide range due to so many uncertainties) Added to the cost of coal or hydrogen, these sources of energy with geosequestration may be more expensive that alternatives. A long term plan would included the required R & D now
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 19 Affect of Leakage on Geosequestration Source: CANA (2004). Carbon Leakage and Geosequestration, Climate Action Network Australia. "The assumption of exclusive reliance on storage may be an extreme one, however the example illustrates that emphasis on energy efficiency and increased reliance on renewable energy must be priority areas for greenhouse gas mitigation. The higher the expected leakage rate and the larger the uncertainty, the less attractive geosequestration is compared to other mitigation alternatives such as shifting to renewable energy sources, and improved efficiency in production and consumption of energy." Downloadable Model at http://www.tececo.com/files/spreadsheets/Gaia EngineeringVGeoSequestrationV1_26Apr08.xls
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 20Synopsis We must accept our long term role of maintaining spaceship earth as planetary engineers and find ways of maintaining the level of carbon dioxide, oxygen and other gases in the atmosphere at desirable levels. We cannot possibly arrest the alarming increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide currently occurring through efficiency, emissions reduction (constraint) or substitution alone Geo-sequestration is at best short term and at worst highly risky. What would have happened recently if the Chinese were using the technology? We have a good chance of preserving the future if we mimic nature and find profitable uses for carbon and other wastes.
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 21Synopsis Uses for carbon and other wastes must be economically driven and result in a real value that puts profit in the pocket of a large number who will as a consequence wish to engage otherwise they cannot be implemented on the massive scale required. Anthropogenic sequestration as man made carbonate in the built environment is a new technology platform that has the promise of profitably sequestering massive amounts of carbon profitably. The markets created for man made carbonate in buildings are insatiable, large enough and indefinitely continuing. Anthropogenic sequestration by building with man made carbonate is doable and most likely presents the only option we have for saving the planet from runaway climate change until such time as safe and reliable forms of energy alternative to fossil fuels can be developed Anthropogenic sequestration by building with man made carbonate must be part of any long term planetary maintenance strategy.
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 22 Learning to Use Carbon - Geomimicry for Planetary Engineers? Large tonnages of carbon (7% of the crust) were put away during earths geological history as limestone, dolomite and magnesite, mostly by the activity of plants and animals. Orders of magnitude more than as coal or petroleum! Shellfish built shells from carbon and trees turn it into wood. These same plants and animals wasted nothing The waste from one is the food or home for another. Because of the colossal size of the flows involved the answer to the problems of greenhouse gas and waste is to use them both in an insatiable, large and indefinitely continuing market. Such a market exists for building and construction materials.
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 23 Geomimicry for Planetary Engineers? The required paradigm shift in resource usage will not occur because it is the right thing to do. Can only happen economically. To put an economic value on carbon and wastes We have not choice but to invent new technical paradigms such as offered by TecEco and the Global Sustainability Alliance (Gaia Engineering). Evolving culturally to effectively use these technical paradigms By using carbon dioxide and other wastes as building materials we can economically reduce their concentration in the global commons.
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 24 Size of Carbon Sinks Modified from Figure 2 Ziock, H. J. and D. P. Harrison. "Zero Emission Coal Power, a New Concept." from http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/proceedings/01/carbon_seq/2b2.pdf by the inclusion of a bar to represent sedimentary sinks
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 25 Carbonate sediment 40,000,000 Gt Fossil Fuels 8,000 Gt Soils and Detritus 1600 Gt Plants 600 Gt Methane Clathrates 100,000 Gt Sequestration Permanence and time Carbon Sink Permanence
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 26 Anthropogenic Sequestration of Carbon and Wastes During earth's geological history large tonnages of carbon were put away as limestone and other carbonates and as coal and petroleum by the activity of plants and animals. Sequestering carbon in calcium and magnesium carbonate materials and other wastes in the built environment mimics nature in that carbon is used in the homes or skeletal structures of most plants and animals. In eco-cement concretes the binder is carbonate and the aggregates are preferably carbonates and wastes. This is geomimicry CO 2 C Waste CO 2 Pervious pavement
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 27 Geomimicry There are 1.2-3 grams of magnesium and about.4 grams of calcium in every litre of seawater. There is enough calcium and magnesium in seawater with replenishment to last billions of years at current needs for sequestration. To survive we must build our homes like these seashells using CO 2 and alkali metal cations. This is geomimicry Carbonate sediments such as these cliffs represent billions of years of sequestration and cover 7% - 8% of the crust.
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 28 Anthropogenic Sequestration Using Gaia Engineering will Modify the Carbon Cycle Photosynthesis by plants and algae Consumed by heterotrophs (mainly animals) Organic compounds made by autotrophs Organic compounds made by heterotrophs Cellular Respiration Cellular Respiration burning and decay Limestone coal and oil burning Gaia Engineering, (Greensols, TecEco Kiln and Eco- Cements) Decay by fungi and bacteria CO 2 in the air and water More about Gaia Engineering at http://www.tececo.com.au/simple.gaiaengineering_summary.php
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 29 Building and Construction Represents an Insatiable, Large and Indefinitely Continuing Market for Anthropogenic Sequestration The built environment is made of materials and is our footprint on earth. It comprises buildings and infrastructure. Construction materials comprise 70% of materials flows (buildings, infrastructure etc.) 40-50% of waste that goes to landfill (15 % of new materials going to site are wasted.) Around 50 billion tonnes of building materials are used annually on a world wide basis. The single biggest materials flow (after water) is concrete at around 18 billion tonnes or > 2 tonnes per man, woman and child on the planet. 40% of total energy in the industrialised world (researchandmarkets) Why not use magnesium carbonate aggregates and building components from Greensols and Eco-Cements from TecEco to bind them together?
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 30 Only the Built Environment is Big Enough Source of graphics: Nic Svenningson UNEP SMB2007 The built environment is our footprint, the major proportion of the techno-sphere and our lasting legacy on the planet. It comprises buildings and infrastructure
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 31 Economically Driven Technological Change New, more profitable technical paradigms are required that result in more sustainable and usually more efficient moleconomic flows that mimic natural flows or better, reverse our damaging flows. $ - ECONOMICS - $ Change is only possible economically. It will not happen because it is necessary or right.
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 32 Consider Sustainability as Where Culture and Technology Meet Increase in demand/price ratio for greater sustainability due to cultural change. # $ Demand Supply Increase in supply/price ratio for more sustainable products due to technical innovation. Equilibrium Shift ECONOMICS Greater Value/for impact (Sustainability) and economic growth A measure of the degree of sustainability is where the demand for more sustainable technologies is met by their supply. We must rapidly move both the supply and demand curves for sustainability
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 33 Changing the Technology Paradigm By enabling us to make productive use of particular raw materials, technology determines what constitutes a physical resource 1 1.Pilzer, Paul Zane, Unlimited Wealth, The Theory and Practice of Economic Alchemy, Crown Publishers Inc. New York.1990 It is not so much a matter of dematerialisation or constraint as a question of changing the underlying moleconomic flows. We need materials that require less energy to make them, do not pollute the environment with CO 2 and other releases, last much longer and that contribute properties that reduce lifetime energies. The key is to change the technology paradigms Or more simply – the technical paradigm determines what is or is not a resource!
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 34 Cultural Change is Happening! Al Gore (SOS) CSIRO reports STERN Report Lots of Talkfest IPCC Report Political change Branson Prize Live Earth (07/07/07) The media have an important growing role
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 35 Why Magnesium Carbonates? Because of the low molecular weight of magnesium, it is ideal for scrubbing CO 2 out of the air and sequestering the gas into the built environment: Due to the lighter molar mass of magnesium more CO 2 is captured than in calcium systems as the calculations below show. At 2.09% of the crust magnesium is the 8th most abundant element Sea-water contains 1.29 g/l compared to calcium at.412 g/l Magnesium compounds have low pH and polar bond in composites making them suitable for the utilisation of other wastes. Seawater Reference Data g/l H 2 0 Cati on radiu s (pm) Chloride (Cl -- )19167 Sodium (Na + )10.5116 Sulfate (S04 -- )2.7? Magnesium (Mg ++ )1.2986 Calcium (Ca ++ ) 0.41 2114 Potassium (K + ) 0.39 9152
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 36 Making Carbonate Building Materials to Solve the Global Warming Problem Magnesium materials from Gaia Engineering are potential low cost. New kiln technology from TecEco will enable easy low cost simple non fossil fuel calcination of magnesium carbonate to make binders with the CO 2 recycling to produce more carbonate building material to be used with these binders. How much magnesium carbonate would have to be deposited to solve the problem of global warming? The annual flux of CO 2 is around 12 billion tonnes ~= 22.99 billion tonnes magnesite The density of magnesite is 3 gm/cm3 or 3 tonne/metre3 22.9/3 billion cubic metres ~= 7.63 cubic kilometres of magnesite would have to be deposited each year. Compared to the over seven cubic kilometres of concrete we make every year, the problem of global warming looks surmountable. If magnesite was our building material of choice and we could make it without releases as is the case with Gaia Engineering, we have the problem as good as solved! Anthropogenic sequestration - building with carbonate and waste is the answer
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 37 Gaia Engineering Process Diagram Extraction Process Fossil fuels Solar or solar derived energy Oil MgO CO 2 Coal CO 2 Inputs: Atmospheric or industrial CO 2, brines, waste acid or bitterns, other wastes Outputs: Carbonate building materials, potable water, valuable commodity salts. Carbon or carbon compounds Magnesium compounds 1.29 gm/l Mg.412 gm/l Ca Gaia Engineering delivers profitable outcomes whilst reversing underlying undesirable moleconomic flows from other less sustainable techno-processes outside the tececology. TecEco MgCO 2 Cycle Carbonate building components Eco-Cement TecEco Kiln MgCO 3
Gaia Engineering Flow Chart Built Environment MgCO 3 and CaCO 3 Stone Extraction Valuable Commodity Salts or hydrochloric acid. Industrial CO 2 MgO TecEco Tec-Kiln Eco- Cements Building components & aggregates TecEco Cement Manufacture CaO Clays Portland Cement Manufacture Brine or Sea water Tec- Cements Building waste Other waste Waste Acid or Bittern s Fresh Water Extraction inputs and outputs depending on method chosen
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com 39 A Replacement for Kyoto Must be More than a promissory system. Dynamically adaptable Provide for Planning Support for R & D on a new and different non commercial model Technical assistance Indicate a long term price for carbon So that today's decisions result in the investment required in tomorrow's technologies Not impose A financial burden on the economy An administrative burden on participants Address Scope 3 emissions