1. The Malthusian Moment? And if there is one…solutions?  should we eat our parents?  or our children?  or our pets?

2. The ‘conventional wisdom’ and ‘popular political’ agenda…  The former, we decided earlier, was often oppressive / anti-progressive in the time of Galileo. It opposed to the heliocentric model and Darwin’s notion of evolution  SOME now tells that we are running out of resources; that global warming will bring down civilization; others assure us that neither will not happen. Each side claims that its perspective is based on ‘scientific fact’!  But can we trust conventional wisdom? Cultural truth? Can we make unbiased observations? And can we behave rationally even when we gain some insight ?

3. All the evidence suggests that when we consume…  the world is a better place to live,  We [some] become more humane, more philanthropic, more altruistic  We [ok, some] become more environmentally conscious,  and, yet, experience indicates also that we are still capable of irrational and self- serving and self-destructive behavior.

4. Gross Domestic Product

5. High-income countries have the highest energy use per capita. Energy use per capita, in thousands of kilograms of oil equivalent, 2002 Source: World Bank, 2005 World Development Indicators: table 3.7.

6. Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population Natural Increase Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005. Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide

7. Birth rates and death rates are declining around the world. Overall economic development, public health programs, and improvements in food production and distribution, water, and sanitation have led to dramatic declines in death rates. Moreover, women now have fewer children than they did in the 1950s. What happens when the lines ‘birth rate’ and ‘death rate’ cross? That is, who will pay for retirement (with a ‘pay as you go system’)? And this is already happening in many European countries. All the evidence suggests that prosperity brings about a change in fertility rates. There is then no Malthusian moment looming. Notes on Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide

8. Reaching Replacement Fertility Average number of children per woman Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

9. Trends in Fertility Reduction Trends in Fertility Reduction Average number of children per woman Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

10. Billions Less Developed Regions More Developed Regions Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005. Growth in More, Less Developed Countries

11. The lessons…

12. Consider what is driving this movement?  migration in general; migration  and in 2012.

13. The vehicle for this transformation  Science = sustained self conscious reflection in a public context about nature and society, and how sci and culture can work together in a complementary way.  Science applied [technology, engineering] during and since the industrial revolution...  great benefits: rising quality of life and responsive and constitutional political order, pharmaceuticals, sanitation but also produced great liabilities; pollution, Nazi and Leninist ideologies, etc.  How are the benefits to be paid for? Growth? Consumption?

14. Liabilities of Industrial Revolutions and Capitalism tempered by:  Judeo-Christian ethics (humans “made in the image of God”)  Enlightenment values (“all men are created equal…”); popular sovereignty.  Note that most contemporary governments, no matter how ‘free’ or ‘authoritarian’ claim to be ‘democratic’, ‘popular’ and ‘republics’ [e.g., the’ Democratic Peoples Republic of North Korea’ or the’ German Democratic Republic’  Evidence: end of slavery in the 19 th Cent, dramatic rise in standards of living, public health and sanitation, all in a system based on constitutional / consensual government.

15. Solutions? To the problem of consumption  Authoritarian government should distribute resources as best benefits the collective, assume an enlightened government, or  application of scientific principles / methods; that is reflection on the problem and assessment of the options; followed by education and persuasion to generate consensus). The ‘enlightened’ scientific elite?  Note the case of Greece: democratic government, but one in which the politicians insured re-election for themselves and their families by raising the social safety network to an unsustainable level, and doing quite well for themselves besides.