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David H. Kaye, David H. Kaye, Rounding Up the Usual Suspects: A Legal and Logical Analysis of DNA Trawling Cases, Rounding Up the Usual Suspects: A Legal and Logical Analysis of DNA Trawling Cases, 87 N. C. Law Rev. ___(2009 ) 87 N. C. Law Rev. ___(2009 ) (Available at SSRN.com) (Available at SSRN.com)

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Science & Law Blog Science & Law Blog Lawprofessors.typepad.com/ Lawprofessors.typepad.com/ science_law/ science_law/

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Risinger & Loop, Risinger & Loop, Three Card Monte, Monty Hall, Three Card Monte, Monty Hall, Modus Operandi and Modus Operandi and "Offender Profiling": Some Lessons from Modern Cognitive Science "Offender Profiling": Some Lessons from Modern Cognitive Science for the Law of Evidence for the Law of Evidence, for the Law of Evidence, for the Law of Evidence 24 Cardozo L. Rev. 1 (2002). 24 Cardozo L. Rev. 1 (2002).

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Imagine Two Rooms, across the hall from one another.

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In Each room are 1000 roulette wheels In Each room are 1000 roulette wheels

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First, consider single pair of wheels in each room What is the probability that if you spin each one, both will come up with a particular number? (say 27)

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100 X 100 100 X 100 or 1 time in 10,000 or 1 time in 10,000

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But if you spin them both at the same time, But if you spin them both at the same time, without specifying a target number in advance, without specifying a target number in advance, What is the liklihood that they will both hit the same number?

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1 in 100 1 in 100

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Now go back to the two rooms, each with 1000 roulette wheels. Now go back to the two rooms, each with 1000 roulette wheels. If you spin them all at once, If you spin them all at once, how many wheels in room 1 will how many wheels in room 1 will most likely end in most likely end in paired correspondence paired correspondence with a wheel in room 2? with a wheel in room 2?

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10 10

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Risingers Rule Risingers Rule

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In any informationally rich In any informationally rich environment, environment, paired correspondences paired correspondences will occur will occur which look extremely meaningful,

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But Arent But Arent

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GREENDALE GREENDALE

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1/2, 1/6, 1/6, 1/6 1)If you spin once, what is the probability of getting each dollar amount (fractions)? 2) If you spin twice, what is the probability.

1/2, 1/6, 1/6, 1/6 1)If you spin once, what is the probability of getting each dollar amount (fractions)? 2) If you spin twice, what is the probability.

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