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Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 1 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop Jim Noel Senior Hydrologist.

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Presentation on theme: "Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 1 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop Jim Noel Senior Hydrologist."— Presentation transcript:

1 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 1 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop Jim Noel Senior Hydrologist NOAA/ National Weather Service Ohio River Forecast Center March 4, 2008

2 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 2Outline History of Flood Outlooks Why change now? Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) Climate Forecasts within ESP Experimental Water Resources Outlooks Expansion of Climate Products – Examples Summary

3 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 3History Based on series of text products Subjective in nature Only produced in flood season Not a continuous water watch for high and low flows From Hydrologic Information Center – April 14, 2006

4 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 4 Why Change Now? Need for continuous water watch Need to collaborate with our partners more Technology advances allow us to provide more useful information Innovate or dissipate

5 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 5 Ensemble Streamflow Prediction River Forecast Centers capture soil moisture using SAC-SMA (Sacramento) hydrologic soil moisture accounting model and capture snow using SNOW- 17 model Good estimations of soil moisture and snow pack water contents are critical to accurate hydrology (RFCs) and meteorology and climate (NCEP) forecasts. To get good soil moisture estimations requires good precipitation inputs

6 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 6 MCP OFS ESP Manual Calibration Program (MCP) Operational Forecast System (OFS) Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

7 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 7 Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Ensemble Streamflow Prediction RFC NWSRFS/ESP/Probabilistic Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) necessary component used to take short range deterministic SAC-SMA model into short term climate predictions of rivers Similar in concept to the ensembling approach used for atmospheric modeling

8 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 8 Results used in statistical analysis to produce forecasts with probabilistic values Multiple streamflow scenarios with historic meteorological or forecast weather/climatic data Time Flow Scenario 1 Saved model states reflect current conditions Possible scenarios Scenario 2 Scenario 3 © The COMET Program Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

9 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 9 Flow Time Future Now Past Low chance of this level flow or higher High chance of this level flow or higher Medium chance of this level flow or higher © The COMET Program Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

10 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 10 Pre Adjustment Technique Weight/Modify on Input Side Post Adjustment Technique Weight On Output Side Climate Forecasts Within ESP

11 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 11 Climate ForecastsWeather Forecasts Historical MAT and MAP Adjustment System Adjusted Historical MAP and MAT Climate Forecasts Within ESP

12 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 12 Long range seasonal water supply Spring snowmelt volume forecasts Spring snowmelt peaks Minimum flows for navigation, irrigation, environmental, recreation, etc Water Resources Outlooks Climate Forecasts Within ESP

13 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 13 Climate Forecasts within ESP 90-day probability of exceedance Blue line is an historical simulation based on climatology Black line is the conditional simulation with CPC inputs Conditional simulation based on CPC inputs yield lower potential for flooding and high flows.

14 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 14 Water Resources Outlooks Water Resources Outlook Uses NWSRFS SAC- SMA and ESP Uses HPC/CPC Outlooks Can generate a whole host of products An experimental product of NOAA/NWS Being develop for the 30 to 90 day period

15 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 15 Water Resources Outlooks Partner with USGS/USACE Utilize USGS streamflow percentiles Verify product based on USGS 28-day mean flows Experimental has ended, waiting for operational approval GOAL: Slowly expand nationwide

16 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 16 Water Resources Outlooks Based on basins and point forecasts 159 of 266 OHRFC points have 30, 60 and 90 day expected streamflows 20 more USGS points could be used but incomplete data

17 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 17 Water Resources Outlooks 30-day Verification August 2006 through January 2008 POD above normal flows = 0.78 FAR above normal flows = 0.30 POD below normal flows = 0.65 FAR below normal flows = 0.09 Percent of forecast basins in correct category = 78%

18 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 18 Water Resources Outlook Other Approaches Use analog years (year weighting technique in ESP (Post-Adjustment) based on atmospheric and oceanic response (ENSO/NAO etc) Run ESP with CPC outlooks and analog years approach Research on this is being done by OHRFC and hopefully Michigan Tech

19 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 19 Expansion of Climate Products - Examples Probability of reaching flood stage Uses NWSRFS SAC-SMA and ESP Generated at NCRFC for minor, moderate and major flooding An experimental product of NOAA/NWS Being expanded at other RFCs

20 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 20 Expansion of Climate Products - Examples Link WRO for each of our points to probability function images Allow customers to drill down into the WRO further Allow customers to modify risks based on ENSO as a starting point This work is being driven by NWS Western Region

21 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 21Summary Technology (ESP) has advanced to allow subjective text based flood outlooks to be replaced by a more objective based water resources outlook Climate forecasts are integrated into hydrologic forecasts mostly through adjustments to the inputs in the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Water Resources Outlooks would provide a continuous water watch for streamflows in the 1-90 day period for expected flows Water Resources Outlooks would not only be for high flows but ALL flows

22 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 22Summary Streamflow categories are based on USGS percentile categories Verification is based on USGS data Designed to promote NWS/USGS/COE and help us and other partners and customers in their missions! The climate products can be used in providing necessary information on flood and drought potential during the coming months.


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