1. Climate-Change Impacting Hydrologic Forecasting Reggina Cabrera NOAA/National Weather Service Eastern Region, Chief Hydrologic Services Division

2. River Forecast Centers

3. Routed Q MAP MAPX MAPXFMAP R/RO RRS UH Total Q Local Q RatingAdjust FORECAST H, Q ObservedForecast Forecast Process Precipitation Stages Observed

4. Challenge for Operational Hydrologists: Numerous groups looking at climate change effects and hydrologic forecasters are being asked for long-term forecasts Developing experimental products

5. Forecast and associated uncertainty

6. Forecast Evolution FROM: Short-term, deterministic, water-level forecast TO: Long-term, probabilistic, water- level and flow forecast (ESP)

7. Daily Operations

8. Short-term Forecast

9. ESP

10. Traces: Historical and Conditional

11. Probability of Exceedance

12. Communications and Dissemination of Information Wide use of Internet and GIS capabilities have a revolutionary impact on products and forecast services

13. Additional information for forecasters

14. SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN REGION  Existing conditions Soil moisture Drought monitor Average daily stream flow Past rainfall Reservoir considerations Meteorological outlook –short and long term.  Hydrologic Outlook

16. Using GFS Ensemble Members

17. Water Resources Outlook Individual Locations: 30-day 60-day 90-day Streamflows: 30-days 60-days 90-days

18. Inundation Mapping

19. Diversity of users… o Emergency Managers o Agricultural Users o General Public o Water Managers Outreach and Education

20. Integrated Water Resources PrecipitationTemperatureSea-LevelWater levels Variables Models Water QualityRiver Flows Water QualityMeteorologicalHydrologicalOcean Multi-Agency Effort CHPS