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Brian McInerney Hydrologist National Weather Service Hydrologic Outlook April 2006.

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Presentation on theme: "Brian McInerney Hydrologist National Weather Service Hydrologic Outlook April 2006."— Presentation transcript:

1 Brian McInerney Hydrologist National Weather Service Hydrologic Outlook April 2006

2 Hydrologic Outlook Temperature

3 March Salt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal 0.1 degrees cooler than average March degrees warmer than average March 2006

4 April Salt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal 0.7 degrees warmer than average April degrees warmer than average April 2006

5 Western US Temperature Departure from Normal March 2005March 2006

6 Western US Temperature Departure from Normal October, March, 2006

7 Hydrologic Outlook Precipitation

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10 Utah and neighboring states Seasonal Precipitation 2006 Water Year

11 Hydrologic Outlook Snowpack

12 Hydrologic Outlook Water Supply

13 Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volumes Much Above Normal Above Normal Normal Below Normal Much Below Normal April 1st 2006 April Through July Volume Forecast Percent of 30 Year Average Flows Utah Area River Basins

14 Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume April 1 st 2006 April Through July Volume Forecast Percent of 30 Year Average Flows Bear River Basin 143% 123% 119% 140%

15 Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume April 1 st, 2006 April Through July Volume Forecast Percent of 30 Year Average Flows Weber River Basin 129% 132% 148% 131% 122% 118% 123%

16 Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume April 1st, 2006 April Through July Volume Forecast Percent of 30 Year Average Flows Six Creeks River Basin 138% 129% 150% 126% 178% 122%

17 Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume April 1 st, 2006 April Through July Volume Forecast Percent of 30 Year Average Flows Provo River Basin 119% 124% 129% 134% 132% 126%

18 Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume April 1 st, 2006 April Through July Volume Forecast Percent of 30 Year Average Flows Green River Basin 97% 114% 122% 114% 115%119% 121% 112% 120% 110% 112% 95% 102%

19 Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume April 1 st, 2006 April Through July Volume Forecast Percent of 30 Year Average Flows Sevier River Basin 91% 84% 89% 90% 71% 60% 85% 80% 70%

20 Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume April 1 st, 2006 April Through July Volume Forecast Percent of 30 Year Average Flows Virgin River Basin 60% 54% 73% 70%

21 Hydrologic Outlook Flood Potential

22 Increased Flood Potential Cache Valley City Creek Jordan River

23 Hydrologic Outlook Logan Basin Snow vs. Logan River flow of 1997 Flood Flow at 1360 cfs 1997’s flows flooded summer homes in Logan Canyon

24 Hydrologic Outlook Logan Basin Snow vs. Logan River flow of 2005 Flood Flow at 1360 cfs 2005 river flows did not exceed flood flow

25 Hydrologic Outlook City Creek Snow Flood Flow at 2000 cfs

26 Hydrologic Outlook Peak Flow Forecast

27 Hydrologic Outlook

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31 Short Term Forecast

32 Hydrologic Outlook Short Term Forecast Temperature through April 15 th, 2006 –Cooler temperature levels on Monday –Near normal temperatures through the weekend –Cooler temps through weekend Precipitation through April 15 th, 2005 –Near normal throughout mid-month Click for Satellite

33 Hydrologic Outlook Long Range Forecast

34 Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures

35 Forecasted Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures

36 Spring Climate Spring climate will dictate runoff scenario –Soil moisture is near saturation in the north –This allows a great runoff efficiency Cool wet spring will enhance runoff efficiency and heighten flood potential –Length of melt window is shortened –More water into streams and reservoirs –Analogy of a wet sponge Warmer drier spring will reduce water volume and lessen flood potential –Lengthen window of melt –Earlier melt, means more evaporation, infiltration and sublimation –Less efficient melt process –We are running out of time for this scenario

37 Forecast Updates Contact the CBRFC (Colorado Basin River Forecast Center) Forecast Services Up to the minute forecast updates Hourly, daily, and monthly time scales Reservoir inflow Peak flow forecasts Contact Michelle Schmidt Hydrologist in Charge Steve Shumate Development and Operational Hydrologist

38 Forecast Updates Contact the National Weather Service Forecast Center (Weather Info) Forecast Services Flood Forecasts, Advisories, Watches, and Warnings Weather Forecasts Radar, satellite, weather station data Observed conditions Climate data Contact Brian McInerney Hydrologist

39 Contact Information Additional Information Contact Brian McInerney Hydrologist National Weather Service c


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