1. Agricultural development and nutrition improvement in comparative perspective: India, Africa and the rest William A. Masters Professor, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University http://sites.tufts.edu/willmasters with Amelia F. Darrouzet-Nardi Doctoral Candidate, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University http://sites.tufts.edu/ameliadarrouzetnardi IEG-IFPRI Conference on Innovations in Indian Agriculture New Delhi, 4-5 December 2014

2. Agricultural development & nutrition improvement in comparative perspective: India, Africa and the rest What’s ahead: Agricultural development Common development paths? Rural demography and age structure Nutritional improvement Comparable data by region over time? Heights and weights Conclusions Confounders and randomness Implications for agricultural innovation

3. Nutrition outcomes Agriculture Nutrition Are there common development paths? Agricultural development & nutrition improvement Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights

4. Agricultural development & nutrition improvement Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights Common development paths? Source: Author’s calculations, May 2014. Real income is from World Bank, World Development Indicators (April 2014), downloaded from http://data.worldbank.org. Food supply is from FAO, Food Security Indicators (December 2013), downloaded from http://www.fao.org/economic/ess/ess-fs. Each point is a 3-year average, from 1990-92 to 2010-12. Food supply and real income by region, 1990-2012 Real income per capita (GDP at 2011 PPP prices) Dietary energy (kCal/pers/day) What’s behind this Asia-Africa difference?

5. Africa’s impoverishment is relatively recent Only in the 1990s did they get as poor as S. Asian farmers had been Source: Author’s calculation from World Bank (2013), PovcalNet (http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/), updated 18 April 2013. Estimates are based on over 850 household surveys from 127 countries, and refer to per-capita expenditure at purchasing-power parity prices for 2005.http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/ In the 1980s & ‘90s, Africa became more impoverished as South Asian poverty declined Since 2000, African poverty has declined as it did earlier in Asia Poverty rates by region, 1981-2010 (share of population below $1.25/day) Agricultural development & nutrition improvement Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights

6. Source: Calculated from UN Population Division, World Population Projections (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp), based on UN Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision.http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp For the world as a whole, rural population growth will soon become negative, allowing more land per farm Rural population increase in Africa, South Asia and Worldwide, 1950-2050 Africa faces more rural population growth than India Africa’s rural demographic transition is 20 years behind South Asia’s Annual change in rural population (% growth) 1990-2014 Agricultural development & nutrition improvement Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights

7. Child and elderly dependency rates by region (0-15 and 65+), 1950-2030 Africa faces much more child dependency than India Africa’s rural demographic transition is 20 years behind South Asia’s Africa’s dependency rate is still high but now falling, reversing the earlier “demographic drag” Children or elderly per 100 adults of working age (16-65) Source: Calculated from UN Population Division, World Population Projections (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp), based on UN Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision.http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp 1990-2014 Agricultural development & nutrition improvement Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights

8. Agricultural development & nutrition improvement Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights What is known about nutrition improvement? Heights and weights Some anthropological and other records 18 th & 19 th c. data on military recruits Modern surveys of mothers & children Nutritional inputs Diets (foods, nutrients and anti-nutrients) Care (breastfeeding, disease & treatment) Parents (genes, epigenetics & maternal health) Nutritional status Anthropometry (heights, weights, body size) Biomarkers (blood, urine, body composition)

9. Survey year Elapsed years # of subnat. reg. Region and Country FirstLast FirstLast South Asia India19922005132029 Bangladesh199620111567 Nepal200120111053 S.Asia average 19962009 12.7 10.313.0 Africa average 19952008 13.7 6.410.2 RoW average 19952005 10.0 9.110.5. Worldwide average19952007 12.5 7.610.5 Note: Inclusion criterion is availability of both HAZ and WHZ data for children with rural residence. Oldest and newest DHS surveys in S. Asia, Africa & the Rest Agricultural development & nutrition improvement Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights What is known about rural nutrition improvement?

10. Agricultural development & nutrition improvement Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights Child heights rose slightly from 1992 to 2005 in India

11. Agricultural development & nutrition improvement Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights Africans are now poorer but often taller than Indians

12. Agricultural development & nutrition improvement Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights Stunting rates follow mean height but vary more

13. Agricultural development & nutrition improvement Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights India’s wasting rates worsened from 1992 to 2005

14. Agricultural development & nutrition improvement Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights Mean weight-for-height follows wasting & varies less

15. In conclusion… Nutrition improvement varies widely Local confounders modify agriculture’s effects -- e.g. poor sanitation alters impact of diets Lots of randomness makes effects hard to see -- need large sample sizes, expensive surveys Implications for agriculture are still unclear Agriculture has many different effects on nutrition --- e.g. diet diversity, seasonality, caregivers’ time use But so do non-agricultural factors -- e.g. impact of mother and grandmother’s health today’s children echo nutrition of the 1970s Success calls for patience and realism as well as ambition Agricultural development & nutrition improvement Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights

16. Thank you! Agricultural development & nutrition improvement Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights For other background papers: -- http://sites.tufts.edu/willmasters For school info: -- http://nutrition.tufts.edu The analysis presented here builds on work with Amelia F. Darrouzet-Nardi, especially “Urbanization, market development and malnutrition in farm households: Evidence from the Demographic and Health Surveys, 1990-2011.” (forthcoming 2015).

17. Year Elapsed time N (subnat. reg.)Year Elapsed time N (subnat. reg.) Region and CountryFirstLast FirstLastRegion and CountryFirstLast FirstLast South AsiaAfrica Bangladesh199620111567Burkina Faso1993201017513 India19922005132029Benin1996200610612 Nepal200120111053Cameroon1991201120512 S. Asia average 19962009 12.7 10.313.0Ethiopia2000201111 Ghana199320081510 Guinea19992005658 Rest-of-WorldKenya199320081578 Armenia200020101011 Lesotho20042009510 Turkey19982003555Madagascar199220031166 Bolivia199420081479Mali199520061169 Colombia199520051056Malawi199220101833 DR199120071688Mozambique198720112411 Peru19962000424 Nigeria199020081846 Egypt199520081322Niger199220061448 Jordan199020021253Namibia1992200614213 Morocco1992200311715Rwanda199220101854 Cambodia 20002005 5 1722Senegal1992201018414 RoW average 19952005 10 911Tanzania1991201019526 Uganda200620115910 Zimbabwe20052010510 Worldwide average19952007 12.5 7.610.5Africa average 19952008 13.7 6.410.2 Note: Inclusion criterion is availability of both HAZ and WHZ data for children with rural residence. Countries, years and number of subnational regions in the long-difference panel of DHS surveys Agricultural development & nutrition improvement Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights The full set of first & last DHS surveys shown here