1. Linking Climate and Weather Services: Extending Forecasts for Disaster Mitigation and Economic Benefits Presented by A. Leetmaa to The Honorable William M. Daley Secretary of Commerce on April XX, 1999

2.  Weather and climate forecasts  Climate variability STRONGLY IMPACTS economy  Historic breakthroughs in climate forecast skill in 1997-1998  Use of climate forecasts is INCREASING  Future Progress  Next steps Overview

3.  Events such as snowstorms, hurricanes, tornadoes  Forecasts have “skill” days in advance  Forecasts depend on atmospheric data and models Background Weather Forecasts:

4.  Climatology - average weather over 30 years  Climate - average of weather events over a week, month, or seasons  Climate forecasts:  Predict monthly, seasonal averages  Predict unusual seasons  Highlight areas of unusual storminess, drought  Climate forecasts depend on ocean data and coupled ocean- atmosphere models. Background Climate Forecasts:

5.  Property losses - $2.8B  Agricultural losses - $700M  State and federal relief - $500M  Tourist industries - $200M  Lost sales in snow- related industries $100M  Losses in energy sector $4.5B  Texas & Oklahoma drought $6B Sensitivity and Vulnerability of U. S. To the 1997/98 El Niño

6.  Increased sales of homes, goods - $5.5B  Increased employment - $500M  Fewer transportation delays -$200M  Reduced snow removal costs - $400M Sensitivity and Vulnerability of U. S. Economy To the 1997/98 El Niño Winners:

7.  Property losses - $2.8B  Agricultural losses - $700M  State and federal relief - $500M  Tourist Industries - $200M  Lost sales in snow related industries $100M  Losses in energy sector $4.5B  Texas & Oklahoma drought $6B Sensitivity and Vulnerability of U. S. Economy To the 1997/98 El Niño Losers:

8. We have skill in forecasting climate: - major events such as El Niño and La Niña - smaller climate variability events Breakthroughs Made in Climate Forecasts 1997-1999

9.  Six month advanced warning in California resulted in $500M to $1B savings.  Flood insurance sales increased in California and the Southeast.  Drought impacts in Hawaii and U.S. affiliated Pacific Islands. Climate Forecast Use 1997/98 El Niño Mitigation :

10. Survey of 87 managers in agribusiness, water resources, utilities, emergency sector, etc.**  81% (70) used or seriously considered using the forecasts  Forecasts used for both planning and operational decisions  66% (29) of those using forecasts (41) reported beneficial outcomes  Real users were 47% (41/87); Earlier 1996-97 survey showed 32%  64% used the forecasts  70% indicated future business decisions will incorporate climate information **Chagnon, David, 1999: Assessement of the Uses of El Niño-Based Forecasts by Decision Makers. (Chapter of book to be published in 1999) Use of 1997/98 El Niño Forecast Power utilities biggest users:

11. Weather Derivatives Rapid development of new market: $2.5B in contracts in energy and retail sectors  Historical data about climate/weather variability  Ready access to calibrated, maintained surface observations  Forecasts on all timescales: daily, weekly, monthly, seasonal.  Information on forecast skill

12. Future Applications Based on Climate Forecast Products CLIMATE: Planning Decisions WEATHER: Operational Decisions Locking in energy prices Spot market purchases Establishing power trading partners Types of swaps Maintenance schedules Altering maintenance schedules Regional strategies for quantities Advertising and promotionals and types of merchandise Inventory management Water management for flood control, Flood control protected species, irrigation Types of crops, fertilization Harvesting schedules Total and irrigated acreage Pesticide applications Regional fire potential Fire weather Drought preparedness Fisheries seasons

15. New Operational Forecast Products for the NWS Integrated Suite Seasonal and monthly probabilities of storminess for regions of the U.S. Probability distributions of rainfall events ranging from small amounts to large extremes Probabilities of severe storms, tornadoes, ice storms, snowstorms, droughts (month, season...) Probabilities of above and below normal hurricane seasons in the Atlantic and Pacific Probabilities of synoptic scale events such as pineapple expresses (major west coast floods) Probabilities of synoptic scale events such as nor’easters vs Alberta clipper Variability of temperature and probability of temperature extremes (season, month, day)

16.  Establish a private sector Information Sharing and Analysis Center (ISAC) for weather sensitive industries  Convene select committee of DOC Bureau heads to develop plans for:  forecasting economic indices for weather sensitive sectors  utilization of climate forecasts by private sector NEXT STEPS FOR DOC

17. Policy: a) A Presidential Decision Directive designating DOC as lead agency with NWS responsible for operational climate forecasts. b) Establish ISAC for climate impacts. c) Get Bureau heads to develop implementation plan. Science: Refocus observing system and research priorities. Operations: a) Routine issuance of climate forecasts. b) Routine forecasts of weather/climate sensitive economic indices. Resources: a) Increase assets for high performance computing. b) Improve infrastructure for economic impact assessment. Private Sector: Develop Cooperative Research and Development Agreements (CRADAs) to accelerate the use of climate forecasts. Next Steps for DOC, NOAA, and NWS

18. Progress and Partnerships NOW 2000 2005 Climate Forecasts Research Quasi-operational Integrated Suite DOC Involvement -- ISACS Economic Index Fcsts Initial ESA, ITA Private Sector -- Initial CRADAs Extensive Partnerships Partnerships Sectors Involved Energy Retail Agriculture Recreation TransportationGovernment Emergency International Fisheries Managers Aid Coastal ManagementWater ResourcesDrought