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1 global investment management Harmony funds update James Klempster, CFA February 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "1 global investment management Harmony funds update James Klempster, CFA February 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 global investment management Harmony funds update James Klempster, CFA February 2012

2 2 Contents global investment management 1. Market update 2. Fund focus

3 3 global investment management 1. Market update

4 4 global investment management Asset class returns 2011 – local currency terms Source: Bloomberg, February 2012

5 5 global investment management Asset class returns YTD 2012 – local currency terms Source: Bloomberg, February 2012

6 6 global investment management Sector returns since 19 December 2011 Source: Bloomberg, February 2012

7 7 global investment management Global equities back to 2008 levels Source: Bloomberg, February 2012

8 8 global investment management What is worrying investors? Instability in the Middle East and North Africa Global imbalances Unsustainable growth in China Fiscal consolidation Weak growth in the US, rising risks of recession Europe Source: Bloomberg, February 2012

9 9 global investment management Global imbalances 5,000 3,000 1,000 -3,000 -5,000 -7,000 -9,000 -1,000 Developing national reserves US Treasury borrowing Source: Old Mutual,/ Bloomberg. November 2011 (for illustrative purposes)

10 10 global investment management The weakest US recovery on record Source: Deutsche Bank,/ Bloomberg. November 2011 (for illustrative purposes) % Nominal US GDP recoveries…….

11 11 global investment management 10 year Treasury yields close to all time 220 year lows US 10 year Treasury yields since 1790 Source: Bloomberg, February 2012

12 12 global investment management US 10 year yields versus equities Source: Bloomberg, February 2012

13 13 global investment management Is there anyone left that thinks Greece won’t default? Source: Bloomberg, February 2012

14 14 global investment management Europe continues to fuel concerns “ Greece will remain a unique case” Source: Mario Draghi

15 15 global investment management 10 year government bond spreads over Bunds Source: Bloomberg, February 2012

16 16 global investment management Greece – austerity bites Source: The Economist

17 17 global investment management The European debt mountain update Source: Bloomberg. November 2011 (for illustrative purposes) 79.9% 61.0% -9.3% 93.2% -9.8% 82.3% -7.1% 83.2% -4.3% 118.4% -4.6% 144.9% -10.6% Debt to GDP Budget deficit to GDP 94.9% -31.3% -10.3%

18 18 global investment management Loss of competitiveness in the periphery Source: Bloomberg, February 2012

19 19 global investment management Jean Claude Trichet “ The Governing Council will, in early [May] take decisions on the continued implementation of the gradual phasing-out of the extraordinary liquidity measures that are not needed to the same extent as in the past” MAY 2010

20 20 global investment management Mario Draghi “ We see no stigma attached to the use of central banking credit provisions; our facilities are there to be used”

21 21 global investment management EU base rate Source: Bloomberg, February 2012

22 22 global investment management European brands benefitting from global growth Source: Intebrand Top 100 Global Brands, December 2011. Third party trademark, copyright and other intellectual property rights are and remain the property of their respective owners.

23 23 global investment management Chinese inflation Source: Bloomberg, February 2012

24 24 global investment management Monetary policy Source: Bloomberg, February 2012

25 25 global investment management Equity market valuations Source: Bloomberg, February 2012

26 26 global investment management Key themes for 2012 ‘New normal’ is now the consensus Global rebalancing set to continue for several years Subdued GDP growth now widely expected Eurozone sovereign debt remains a tail risk Recent data suggests economic thawing in DM Current deflationary environment will ultimately turn inflationary as governments resort to the printing presses – but not yet 2012 started strongly, remain positive but do not let expectations become outlandish Diversification and dynamic asset allocation key to performance

27 27 global investment management 2. Fund focus

28 28 global investment management Harmony Balanced fund strategic allocation January 2012

29 29 global investment management Harmony Growth fund strategic allocation January 2012

30 30 global investment management Harmony US Dollar Balanced asset allocation January 2012.

31 31 global investment management Harmony US Dollar Balanced currency allocation January 2012.

32 32 global investment management Harmony US Dollar Balanced performance Source: Lipper Hindsight, Momentum Global Investment Management, January 2012. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. *30/06/2005 to 30/12/2005. †Harmony fund average percentage rank over discrete years shown.

33 33 global investment management Harmony US Dollar Balanced manager performance Source: Lipper January 2012

34 34 global investment management Harmony US Dollar Growth asset allocation January 2012.

35 35 global investment management Harmony US Dollar Growth currency allocation January 2012.

36 36 global investment management Harmony US Dollar Growth performance Source: Lipper Hindsight, Momentum Global Investment Management, January 2012. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. *30/06/2005 to 30/12/2005. †Harmony fund average percentage rank over discrete years shown.

37 37 global investment management Harmony US Dollar Growth manager performance Source: Lipper Hindsight, 2012

38 38 global investment management Harmony funds protecting capital in 2007/08 Performance rebased to 100 Source: Lipper Hindsight, January 2012. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

39 39 global investment management …and again in recent weak markets Performance rebased to 100 Source: Lipper Hindsight, January 2012. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

40 40 global investment management Harmony 2011 performance vs. peers Source: Lipper Hindsight, January 2012. Past performance is not indicative of future returns

41 41 global investment management Thank you

42 42 global investment management Disclaimer Momentum Global Investment Management is the trading name for Momentum Global Investment Management Limited. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which it is not authorised or permitted, or to anyone who would be an unlawful recipient, and is only intended for use by original recipients and addressees. The original recipient is solely responsible for any actions in further distributing this document, and should be satisfied in doing so that there is no breach of local legislation or regulation. The information is intended solely for use by our clients or prospective clients, and should not be reproduced or distributed except via original recipients acting as professional intermediaries. This document is not for distribution in the United States. Prospective investors should inform themselves and if need be take appropriate advice regarding applicable legal, taxation and exchange control regulations in countries of their citizenship, residence or domicile which may be relevant to the acquisition, holding, transfer, redemption or disposal of any investments herein solicited. Any opinions expressed herein are those at the date this material is issued. Data, models and other statistics are sourced from our own records, unless otherwise stated herein. We believe that the information contained is from reliable sources, but we do not guarantee the relevance, accuracy or completeness thereof. Unless otherwise provided under UK law, Momentum Global Investment Management does not accept liability for irrelevant, inaccurate or incomplete information contained, or for the correctness of opinions expressed. We caution that the value of investments in discretionary accounts, and the income derived, may fluctuate and it is possible that an investor may incur losses, including a loss of the principal invested. Past performance is not generally indicative of future performance. Investors whose reference currency differs from that in which the underlying assets are invested may be subject to exchange rate movements that alter the value of their investments. Our investment mandates in alternative strategies and hedge funds permit us to invest in unregulated funds that may be highly volatile. Although alternative strategies funds will seek to follow a wide diversification policy, these funds may be subject to sudden and/or large falls in value. The illiquid nature of the underlying funds is such that alternative strategies funds deal infrequently and require longer notice periods for redemptions. These Investments are therefore not readily realisable. If an alternative strategies fund fails to perform, it may not be possible to realise the investment without further loss in value. These unregulated funds may engage in the short selling of securities or may use a greater degree of gearing than is permitted for regulated funds (including the ability to borrow for a leverage strategy). A relatively small price movement may result in a disproportionately large movement in the investment value. The purpose of gearing is to achieve higher returns associated with larger investment exposures, but has concomitant exposure to loss if positive performance is not achieved. Reliable information about the value of an investment in an alternative strategies fund may not be available (other than at the fund’s infrequent valuation points). Under our multi-management arrangements, we selectively appoint underlying sub-investment managers and funds to actively manage underlying asset holdings in the pursuit of achieving mandated performance objectives. Annual investment management fees are payable both to the multimanager and the manager of the underlying assets at rates contained in the offering documents of the relevant portfolios (and may involve performance fees where expressly indicated therein). Momentum Global Investment Management Limited (Company Registration No. 3733094) registered office at 20 Gracechurch Street, London EC3V 0BG. Momentum Global Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the United Kingdom, and is an authorised Financial Services Provider pursuant to the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act 37 of 2002 in South Africa. © Momentum Global Investment Management Limited 2012

43 43 global investment management Contact: Lucy Richardson Marketing Manager Momentum Global Investment Management Lucy.richardson@momentumGIM.com T: +44 207 939 1725 www.momentumgim.com


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