1. FOOD SYSTEM VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN GREATER FARIDPUR REGION IN BANGLADESH AHSAN UDDIN AHMED Executive Director, Centre for Global Change

2. Site description Greater Faridpur Region Representative area which exhibits the general flooding characteristics of areas found in Eastern Himalayan Region. “Too much water” during monsoon. Frequent flooding. GECAFS IGP Briefing: Feb. 7, 2009

3. Site description Population: Only 4.9% of national total Faridpur is relatively more urbanized, having higher population density than the rest of the Districts Income information: Per capita income is somewhat lower in GFR than the rest of the country. [$480/cap ppp] General information about poverty & malnutrition Percentage of population below poverty line National Rural Urban National 33.7 37.4 19.1 Regional Avg. 32.0 41.7 12.0 No updated District-wise data available Per capita availability of food grains (kg) 205.2 Head count poverty 1805 k. cal per person per day. Incidence of poverty 42 % (Head – count ratio) cost of Basic Needs Method, 2000 GECAFS IGP Briefing: Feb. 7, 2009

4. Site description (Contd.) Percent of population involved in agriculture: Pop (‘000) Urban Rural All Sector 44,322 10,723 (24.19%) 33,599 (75.81%) Agriculture 21,246 (47.94%) 2,670 (12.57%) 18,576 (87.43%) About 6% farms are located in Greater Faridpur Region. Migration: However, field info suggests that there are seasonal migration to Munshiganj (to help potato growers) and to urban areas for easy employment; in addition, there are migration abroad in search of employment GECAFS IGP Briefing: Feb. 7, 2009

6. Availability A. Long-term production potential declining/questionable B. Increasingly becoming dependent on international import AB Land shrinking, degradingGap between national Susceptibility to hazards production & demand Industrial and agrochemical pollution increasing Input supply – uncertain futureHigh population AvailabilityAccess Utilization Food systems: Prioritized issues GECAFS IGP Briefing: Feb. 7, 2009

7. Access Very low affordability High incidence of poverty Low wage rates, high production cost Intra-hh allocation in favour of males Women receiving the worst, the least Preference is largely undermined Common hh’s diet is based on carbohydrate only! Food systems: Prioritized issues GECAFS IGP Briefing: Feb. 7, 2009 AvailabilityAccess Utilization

8. Nutritional value sacrificed High value produce are sold to purchase rice Food items not safe any more Too much contaminants in processed food Food systems: Prioritized issues GECAFS IGP Briefing: Feb. 7, 2009 AvailabilityAccess Utilization

9. GEC drivers/ trends (in relation to IGP-5) Too much water during the monsoon No control over regional flow patterns in monsoon Drainage problem, flood Late flood and implications for food production Under GEC (i.e., CC) monsoon flow will increase More frequent high floods Occasional cyclonic storms Riverbank erosion GECAFS IGP Briefing: Feb. 7, 2009

10. Vulnerability to food system Sensitive Food Security determinant GEC-related stress to which exposed Sensitivity to GEC stress Coping capacity Overall vulnerability Production potential Late FloodDrainage congestion Low: opting for low-yielding variety Moderate now, will become high Exchange dependence Change in production due to T & R Low int. availability; price shock Low: difficult for the poor to cope with High Very low affordability Too much water in monsoon Flood- related loss Very low: lesser consumption Very high GECAFS IGP Briefing: Feb. 7, 2009

11. Vulnerability to food system (contd.) Sensitive Food Security determinant GEC-related stress to which exposed Sensitivity to water stress Coping capacity Overall vulnerability Intra-hh allocation for women Hazard- related crop loss High, Crop loss due to hazards Very low: much reduced consumption Very high Preference is undermined As aboveVery high; production loss & price hike Very low: carbohydrates Very high Nutritional value sacrificed As aboveHigh; low farm gate price, low wages Low: high value products sold, carbohydrates High GECAFS IGP Briefing: Feb. 7, 2009

12. A set of adaptation (proposed by stakeholders) Link with Food Security Outcomes & Determinants Increased emphasis on production Availability (Production) Improved flood management system Availability (production & distribution) Early Warning for EWE Seasonal forecasting Research for improved varieties suitable in marooned conditions Availability (production) Access (affordability, price) Rationalization of lowest wage rate, procurement rates Access (affordability, price, allocation) GECAFS IGP Briefing: Feb. 7, 2009

13. A set of adaptation (proposed by stakeholders) Link with Food Security Outcomes & Determinants Incentives for oilseeds and lentil production (diversification), poultry and milk products Access (affordability, price, allocation) Utilization (nutritional value) Implementation of food safety legal frameworks Utilization (nutritional value) GECAFS IGP Briefing: Feb. 7, 2009

14. Food safety legal framework implemented Increased emphasis on production State Private Sector NGO/CSO Resource Managers/ farmers Improved Food Mgmt System Early warning for EWE, forecasting Suitable Variety Development Wage Rate, procurement rate Incentives of expanding food diversity AVAILABILITY Production Exchange Distribution ACCESS Affordability Allocation Preference UTILIZATION Nutritional Value Social value Food safety FS Outcomes

15. Resource Managers/ farmers State Private Sector NGO/CSO Wage Rate, procurement rate AVAILABILITY Production Exchange Distribution ACCESS Affordability Allocation Preference/Diversity UTILIZATION Nutritional Value Social Value Food Safety GECAFS IGP Briefing: Feb. 7, 2009

16. THANK YOU