Presentation on theme: "Climate Change and Food Security in the Indo-Gangetic Plain Analysing food system vulnerability Pramod Joshi Director National Centre for Agricultural."— Presentation transcript:
Climate Change and Food Security in the Indo-Gangetic Plain Analysing food system vulnerability Pramod Joshi Director National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research DPS Road, New Delhi, India www.ncap.res.in
Quotes on poverty and food insecurity Poverty (food insecurity) is the worst kind of violence Mahatma Gandhi If a free society can not help the many who are poor and food insecure, it can not save the few who are rich John F Kennedy
Issues Altered monsoon Reducing glacier and snow melt Reduced ground water Key Policy Goals Increasing and diversifying ag production Reducing seasonal ag labour migration Improved water management Indo-Gangetic Plain Example Stakeholders State & National ag & env ministries National Ag Research Institutes & CGIAR NGOs (NWCF, BUP) GEC Research Institutes (GCISC, APN) Key IGP climate and other GEC issues, food security policy priorities and development goals
Indo-Gangetic Plain: Strong W – E variations Western Region (Zones 1, 2 & 3) High productivity – food surplus High investment in infrastructure Major use of fertilisers and ground- water for irrigation Irrigation real costs very high Eastern Region (Zones 4 & 5) Low productivity – food deficit Poor infrastructure and low inputs of fertilizer and water High risk of flooding Chronic poverty
Step 1: Identify set of Case Study sites (Districts) that IGP heterogeneity Gujarat, Punjab Pakistan wheat high ag inputs & effective institutions variable water availability changes in snow/glacier melt rising GHG emissions Vaisahali, Bihar India rice low infrastructure & investment low income levels out migration of labour little government policy support seasonal flooding variable water availability Greater Faridpur Bangladesh rice low income levels institutions failing drought seasonal flooding sea level & salt water intrusion Ruhani Basin, Terai Nepal rice/wheat: low crop yields out-migration of labour seasonal flooding variable water availability Ludihana, Punjab India rice/wheat stagnant productivity growth high ag inputs & effective institutions variable water availability groundwater depletion changes in snow/glacier melt rising GHG emissions Source: Multi-authored analysis of IGP food system vulnerability to GEC. GECAFS Report. In prep.
Step 2: Use standardised methods to describe food system determinants in each Case Study Example from Vaishali District, Bihar for 2 of the 9 food system determinants Food System Determinant Key FactorCharacteristicsTrend Importance to System Sensitivity to GEC Social Value Social bonding/celebrations Very strongChangingSecondaryNot known Role of food in kinshipHighChangingSecondaryNot known Esteem from agricultural production/ farmer identity WeakeningDecreasingPrimaryLittle Food Safety Public awareness regarding hygiene LowImprovingPrimaryNot known Presence of pathogensHighNot knownPrimaryYes Changes with seasonality Some effect on food quality Not knownPrimaryYes
CLIMATE CHANGE Change in type, frequency & magnitude of environmental threats FOOD SYSTEM SECURITY and VULNERABILITY SOCIETAL CHANGE Change in institutions, resource accessibility, economic conditions, etc. Capacity to cope with &/or recover from GEC Exposure to GEC What determines the vulnerability of the food system to climate change?
Step 3: Systematically analyse food system vulnerability to CC in Case Studies (indicative results : research just started) Food Security determinant (examples) Stress to which determinant is increasingly exposed Sensitivity to current stress Current coping capacity Overall vulnerability Nutritional value (Food Utilisation): Main protein (pulses) in Terai Variable onset of monsoon Protein content depends on cultivar & planting date Low due to few improved cultivars or forecasts High due to weak ag and met extension services Affordability (Food Access): Household incomes in Bihar Insufficient rainfallAgricultural income depends on yields and adequate market Moderate due to some – but limited – options to migrate to find off- farm income Moderate due to social constraints on migration Production (Food Availability): Irrigation potential in Punjab Reduced river flow due to changed glacier melt Production depends on timely irrigation Low due to declining water table and no water pricing options High due to declining water table & flawed institutional arrangements
Approach to identifying adaptive capacity Document Current Exposure Assess Current Adaptive Capacity Assess Future Change Exposure Assess Future Adaptive Capacity Identify Modification for Future Adaptive Capacity Social Change and Process Climate Science Current Vulnerability Future Vulnerability From Gopal Joshi, Clean Energy Nepal. After: Desanker and Nassef, 2003; Jones et al.,2002; Kelly and Adger, 2000; Lim 2003)
Step 4: Determine food system adaptation options and capacity in Case Studies (future research) Food Security determinant (examples) Stress to which determinant is increasingly exposed Adaptive options, capacity and feedbacks Sensitivity to FUTURE stress (aim) FUTURE vulnerability (aim) Nutritional value (Food Utilisation): Main protein (pulses) in Terai Variable onset of monsoon Access to improved cultivars LowerModerate Affordability (Food Access): Household incomes in Bihar Insufficient rainfallRisk mitigation through improved technologies & agricultural insurance LowerLow Production (Food Availability): Irrigation potential in Punjab Reduced river flow due to changed glacier melt Resource conservation and frontier technologies LowerModerate to High
How can policies and strategies make best use of science? How to communicate and with whom? –National level? –Local level? –Research organisations? –Ministries? How to make the research message compelling, given that conceptual understanding is poor? How to communicate given challenge of uncertainty? Framework needed to improve links between science and policy
Integrating GECAFS concepts and methods to support decision-making Identify Adaptation Analyse Feedbacks Build Scenarios Assess Vulnerability Adapted Food Systems Current Food Systems ? Establish Regional Agenda Support Decision- Making
Pool resources to combat climate change for peace & prosperity in the world Thank you