Presentation on theme: "Climate Change and Food Security in the Indo-Gangetic Plain"— Presentation transcript:
1Climate Change and Food Security in the Indo-Gangetic Plain Analysing food system vulnerabilityPramod JoshiDirectorNational Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research DPS Road, New Delhi, India
2Quotes on poverty and food insecurity Poverty (food insecurity) is the worst kind of violenceMahatma GandhiIf a free society can not help the many who are poorand food insecure, it can not save the few who are richJohn F Kennedy
3Key IGP climate and other GEC issues, food security policy priorities and development goalsInitial effort in identifying which S/holders are relevant and important: different in each regionThree regional examples of stakeholder concerns about GEC; also list of food policy goals (note that may not be connected).Indo-Gangetic PlainIssuesAltered monsoonReducing glacier and snow meltReduced ground waterKey Policy GoalsIncreasing and diversifying ag productionReducing seasonal ag labour migrationImproved water managementExample StakeholdersState & National ag & env ministriesNational Ag Research Institutes & CGIARNGOs (NWCF, BUP)GEC Research Institutes (GCISC, APN)
4Indo-Gangetic Plain: Strong W – E variations Eastern Region (Zones 4 & 5)Low productivity – food deficitPoor infrastructure and low inputs of fertilizer and waterHigh risk of floodingChronic povertyStress that the focus is on water related stresses.Western Region (Zones 1, 2 & 3)High productivity – food surplusHigh investment in infrastructureMajor use of fertilisers and ground-water for irrigationIrrigation real costs very high
5Identify set of Case Study sites (Districts) that IGP heterogeneity Step 1:Identify set of Case Study sites (Districts) that IGP heterogeneityGujarat, PunjabPakistanwheathigh ag inputs & effective institutionsvariable water availabilitychanges in snow/glacier meltrising GHG emissionsRuhani Basin, TeraiNepalrice/wheat: low crop yieldsout-migration of labourseasonal floodingvariable water availabilityLudihana, PunjabIndiarice/wheatstagnant productivity growthhigh ag inputs & effective institutionsvariable water availabilitygroundwater depletionchanges in snow/glacier meltrising GHG emissionsStress that the focus is on water related stresses.Greater FaridpurBangladeshricelow income levelsinstitutions failingdroughtseasonal floodingsea level & salt water intrusionVaisahali, BiharIndiaricelow infrastructure & investmentlow income levelsout migration of labourlittle government policy supportseasonal floodingvariable water availabilitySource: Multi-authored analysis of IGP food system vulnerability to GEC. GECAFS Report. In prep.
6Step 2:Use standardised methods to describe food system determinants in each Case StudyExample from Vaishali District, Bihar for 2 of the 9 food system determinantsFood System DeterminantKey FactorCharacteristicsTrendImportanceto SystemSensitivityto GECSocial ValueSocial bonding/celebrationsVery strongChangingSecondaryNot knownRole of food in kinshipHighEsteem from agricultural production/ farmer identityWeakeningDecreasingPrimaryLittleFood SafetyPublic awareness regarding hygieneLowImprovingPresence of pathogensYesChanges with seasonalitySome effect onfood qualityStress that the focus is on water related stresses.
7What determines the vulnerability of the food system to climate change? Change in type, frequency & magnitude of environmental threatsCapacity to cope with &/or recover from GECFOOD SYSTEM SECURITYand VULNERABILITYExposureto GECGECAFS view of vulnerability – function of adaptive capacity and resilienceSOCIETAL CHANGEChange in institutions, resource accessibility, economic conditions, etc.
8(indicative results : research just started) Step 3: Systematically analyse food system vulnerability to CC in Case Studies(indicative results : research just started)Food Security determinant(examples)Stress to which determinant is increasingly exposedSensitivity to current stressCurrent coping capacityOverall vulnerabilityNutritional value (Food Utilisation):Main protein (pulses) in TeraiVariable onset of monsoonProtein content depends on cultivar & planting dateLow due to few improved cultivars or forecastsHighdue to weak ag and met extension servicesAffordability(Food Access):Household incomes in BiharInsufficient rainfallAgricultural income depends on yields and adequate marketModeratedue to some – but limited – options to migrate to find off-farm incomedue to social constraints on migrationProduction(Food Availability):Irrigation potential in PunjabReduced river flow due to changed glacier meltProduction depends on timely irrigationLowdue to declining water table and no water pricing optionsdue to declining water table &flawed institutional arrangements
9Approach to identifying adaptive capacity Document CurrentExposureCurrent VulnerabilityClimateScienceAssess CurrentAdaptive CapacityAssess Future ChangeExposureSocial Changeand ProcessFutureVulnerabilityAssess FutureAdaptive CapacityIdentify Modificationfor Future Adaptive CapacityFrom Gopal Joshi, Clean Energy Nepal. After: Desanker and Nassef, 2003; Jones et al.,2002; Kelly and Adger, 2000; Lim 2003)
10Step 4: Determine food system adaptation options and capacity in Case Studies (future research)Food Security determinant(examples)Stress to which determinant is increasingly exposedAdaptive options, capacity and feedbacksSensitivity to FUTURE stress(aim)FUTURE vulnerabilityNutritional value (Food Utilisation):Main protein (pulses) in TeraiVariable onset of monsoonAccess to improved cultivarsLowerModerateAffordability(Food Access):Household incomes in BiharInsufficient rainfallRisk mitigation through improved technologies & agricultural insuranceLowProduction(Food Availability):Irrigation potential in PunjabReduced river flow due to changed glacier meltResource conservation and frontier technologiesModerate to High
11Framework needed to improve links between science and policy How can policies and strategies make best use of science?How to communicate and with whom?National level?Local level?Research organisations?Ministries?How to make the research message compelling, given that conceptual understanding is poor?How to communicate given challenge of uncertainty?
12Integrating GECAFS concepts and methods to support decision-making Current Food SystemsEstablishRegional AgendaAssess VulnerabilityBuild Scenarios?SupportDecision-MakingIdentify AdaptationAnalyse FeedbacksAdapted Food Systems
13Pool resources to combat climate change for peace & prosperity in the world Thank you